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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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5 minutes ago, larrye said:

I understand the concept of eyewall replacement. But is it typical for a hurricane to have two eyewalls for this long a period of time ... and isn't the outer eyewall kind of large for an eyewall?

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Some tropical cyclones with extremely large outer eyewalls do not experience the contraction of the outer eye and subsequent dissipation of the inner eye. Typhoon Winnie (1997) developed an outer eyewall with a diameter of 200 kilometres (120 mi) that did not dissipate until it reached the shoreline.[25] The time required for the eyewall to collapse is inversely related to the diameter of the eyewall which is mostly because inward directed wind decreases asymptotically to zero with distance from the radius of maximum winds, but also due to the distance required to collapse the eyewall

 

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1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Inner eyewall is choking. S and SW parts are dissipating as the outer eyewall contracts and absorbs whats left of the inner eyewall.

what does your post imply. storm is not going to get stronger?

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OEW has definitely been strengthening recently... Also expanding in size/breadth. West palm beach about to get hit with the westernmost OEW. 

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1 minute ago, Animal said:

what does your post imply. storm is not going to get stronger?

Not for the time being, as the outer eyewall constricts, it begins to starve the inner eyewall. Thus it begins to fall apart, and the pieces that are left become absorbed into the newly formed eyewall. Once the inner eyewall gives up and falls apart, the storm can resume its strengthening. But, as long as there are concentric eyewalls the storm will not strengthen much, if at all. 

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6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Its a good bit NNE of where last nights euro had it.

 

 

Screen Shot 10-06-16 at 08.52 PM.JPG

ecmwf_T850_seus_2.png

It's definitely a little east of the NHC track last night and looks like it recently took another N jog. From where it is now the FL coast slopes NNW, so it will really have to head NW to make landfall anywhere. Maybe another wild card though is how long before it heads N then NE, since that then affects GA and SC. 

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per metwannabe in the SE forum.

early 00z models shift a bit east off fl.  more of a northern component here in a few hrs until a close call w/ charleston.

bda02cab9bd60522aec2efdd6e990ebe.jpg&key

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

per metwannabe in the SE forum.

early 00z models shift a bit east off fl.  more of a northern component here in a few hrs until a close call w/ charleston.

bda02cab9bd60522aec2efdd6e990ebe.jpg&key

Good-down the middle of that path gives a lashing and nothing more to the coast. For surge, you really need a landfall to have anything that significant, and optimally you want a perpendicular track to the coast, not along or parallel to the coast. I'm sure some places will have some significant flooding, but nothing like a track inland anyplace. 

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Watch this thing stay 75 miles off the FL coast with only moderate impact, ride the Gulf Stream Northeast, explode in intensity and slam SC head-on! That would be a real kick in the teeth for forecasters. Floridians would never trust forecasters again, lol. 

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7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

per metwannabe in the SE forum.

early 00z models shift a bit east off fl.  more of a northern component here in a few hrs until a close call w/ charleston.

bda02cab9bd60522aec2efdd6e990ebe.jpg&key

So only a couple models now showing actual LF? What a roller coaster ride!

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Lets not get ahead of ourselves here... if we want to be honest with one another we don't fully understand what is occurring inside this storm atm and underestimating it now could be disastrous.

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6 minutes ago, Morris said:

Only 54kts in the western eyewall measured by a new dropsonde.

 

Let's face it. It's not a beast.

It's trying to replace its eye. Winds will not be nearly as strong for several hours more at least. Once it finishes winds have an opportunity to reconsolidate in the new eyewall. Remember just before Haiti, where the same process occurred right before landfall? Still plowed ashore with winds much stronger than were observed off shore hours earlier. I personally think we see an uptick in intensity later tonight.

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4 minutes ago, Morris said:

Only 54kts in the western eyewall measured by a new dropsonde.

 

Let's face it. It's not a beast.

The western eyewall usually is never the worst part of it, the north and east is. The radar on it hasn't looked good all day anyway. The NE eyewall has always been where the worst convection and effects have been today. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The western eyewall usually is never the worst part of it, the north and east is. The radar on it hasn't looked good all day anyway. The NE eyewall has always been where the worst convection and effects have been today. 

Neither will make landfall with that track so it doesn't matter.

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First, it's waaay too early to be calling bust.

 

Second, 00z hrrr is insistent on having it bend west as the eyewall comes closer to the coast.

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6 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said:

This may not bode well for the public who may not evacuate the next time.

 

For sure. Not a good day or week for that matter for the NHC. At least here in the US. Worst place for that to happen. Florida... There WILL BE ANOTHER ANDREW ONE DAY

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Just now, eurojosh said:

First, it's waaay too early to be calling bust.

 

Second, 00z hrrr is insistent on having it bend west as the eyewall comes closer to the coast.

The HRRR has been consistently too far west for the last day. This morning it had it coming ashore north of PBI. 

FL may have just dodged a huge bullet. Nothing more than decent gale force winds ashore yet, and from the eye now the shore slopes NNW. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The western eyewall usually is never the worst part of it, the north and east is. The radar on it hasn't looked good all day anyway. The NE eyewall has always been where the worst convection and effects have been today. 

That drop, I believe, occurred on the very inner portion of the Eyewall (so closer to the eye, where winds will of course he weaker), so it was weaker than you might expect. It is definitely stronger than 54kts, even in the western IEW. 

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Just now, eurojosh said:

First, it's waaay too early to be calling bust.

 

Second, 00z hrrr is insistent on having it bend west as the eyewall comes closer to the coast.

I think Jax and areas slightly south of there are still under the gun but there is no questioning that Central Florida and south is not going to face nearly what was feared.

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First, it's waaay too early to be calling bust.

 

Second, 00z hrrr is insistent on having it bend west as the eyewall comes closer to the coast.


The HRRR also had it landfalling near Lauderdale earlier today. Just saying.

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HRRR seems to have a west bias with Matthew.  Last night there tweets going out about how the HRRR was showing a close hit to Miami.  Below is the 18z run for roughly now and it's west by a good bit.

I do think it's going to get really close to landfall in FL.

 

Screen Shot 2016-10-06 at 9.28.59 PM.png

Screen Shot 2016-10-06 at 9.30.24 PM.png

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


The HRRR also had it landfalling near Lauderdale earlier today. Just saying.

When the only model showing a hit is the 16hr HRRR, it's a bust.

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Check out Levi's 8:35pm update for information on the eyewall rings and wobbling and other issues 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/   

Good info with zero hype, and layman-friendly-enough I can send it to the family and friends deluging me with questions.  Thank you Levi!

 

(edit to fix typo noticed just as Save was pressed argh)

 

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