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    Birmingham, AL

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  1. If one had to sum up the 2018 severe weather season so far they couldn’t do any better than this mornings 13z tornado probs outlook.
  2. F-5

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    You are correct. I should have stated Key West radar is a bad source.
  3. F-5

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    It has been stated several times in this thread already that radar is not the correct source to determine eyewall structure. Heavy rain will attenuate the radar. Looks intact on sat.- for now.
  4. F-5

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    Satellite and water vapor images from the past hour are the best presentations of the day....still don't see a full banding around the eye yet, but she's trying.
  5. F-5

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    I'm using the NHC satellite page but their most recent image is 3:15 so maybe you're correct, but as of their latest image the SW flank was the most robust part of the eye. Also, a loop of the Key West radar shows the 'weakening' coinciding with the arrival of an intense rain band. Could be wrong....
  6. F-5

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    And in the toilet we go (again).
  7. F-5

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    That is most likely an illusion caused by the precip falling on top of KBYX
  8. F-5

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    Looking at the shape of the Cuban shoreline, Irma had a burst of intensification shortly after being more over open water as she went past that little dip in the shoreline. Possible indicator the core is still in good shape or maybe just coincidence? Looks like about 4-6 hours until the shoreline starts flattening to a more westerly orientation and barring a jog, Irma will start separating from the coast by early afternoon.
  9. F-5

    Major Hurricane Irma

    ERC or not aside, the OEW has contracted about 12 or so miles in the past two four hours based on radar loop out of TJUA.
  10. F-5

    Harvey - Main Thread

    Since there may be some folks in harm's way tonight that are relying on this as a source of information- and there has been precious little of late- currently the NWS has issued a FFW for pretty much the entire Houston metro as of 11:15 cst. The warning goes until 5am and mentions 1" to 2" rainfall rates per hour. There is a zone of convergence along the coast producing prodigious rainfall and the heavier returns have been inching closer to downtown for the past couple of hours. Hopefully the heavier returns never make their way into the city proper, and nobody really knows for sure if it will or not, but it does seem likely some of the heaviest rain of the day will be inside the inner loop within the half hour.
  11. F-5

    2017 General Severe Weather thread

    Storm appears to riding some type of boundary. Dews in Macon are in the low sixties and almost 10 degrees higher just north of there.
  12. F-5

    Severe Weather Risk This Weekend

    Fair enough, the post about future generations studying this outbreak was pretty low hanging fruit. I took the bait, my apologies. Does anyone know why the radar data was so poor today? You could hardly get two decent scans back to back. I'm sure that contributed to much of the confusion.
  13. F-5

    Severe Weather Risk This Weekend

    Radar confirmed and ground confirmed are two different things. I'm very familiar with the area and there's a whole lotta nothin' in many of those areas so we very well may find a path here or there tomorrow in the light of day, but many, many of the TDS!, TDS! shouts were in populated areas and other than the lawn chair above, the damage appears minimal. Regardless, happy folks in FL were safe- coulda been a lot worse. Early on, the best dynamics were west of the CAPE and then storm mode was not conducive.
  14. F-5

    Severe Weather Risk This Weekend

    I've got tix to the Rolex 24 in Daytona next weekend with about ten friends, plus pre-paid hotel, plus pre-paid RV- I have a vested interest and am glad this was not as serious as it could have been- but this board was TDS!, TDS! for an hour straight and have we a single confirmed tornado report from the state of Florida? The radar signatures just did not match the hype on this board at any time, IMO. The fact is, despite one monster tornado which sadly claimed multiple lives and justified the High Risk from a public safety standpoint if not a technical one, for the overwhelming majority of the risk area this was an intense squall line that never quite mustered the ability to sustain tornadic supercells. Sorry if anyone was offended by the truth.
  15. F-5

    Severe Weather Risk This Weekend

    Don't know what yall are seeing, but the only rotation worth a crap is coming onshore near Sarasota. Edit: SW of Oak Hill as well