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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX
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The Euro op run (and supported by the ensemble mean) shows 97L making its first landfall in Columbia, South America. I believe (please correct me if I'm wrong) the last time a northern hemisphere cyclone made landfall on South America was Hurricane Ceasar in 1996. Right now modeling is forecasting a very favorable environment for development north of Venezuela. And although it's beyond the EPS's typical skill range most members are an eventual GOM track and much further west than the op run.

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9 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

The Euro op run (and supported by the ensemble mean) shows 97L making its first landfall in Columbia, South America. I believe (please correct me if I'm wrong) the last time a northern hemisphere cyclone made landfall on South America was Hurricane Ceasar in 1996. Right now modeling is forecasting a very favorable environment for development north of Venezuela. And although it's beyond the EPS's typical skill range most members are an eventual GOM track and much further west than the op run.

GEFS Ensemble is tightly wound around the operational run. No members into the GOM, all showing a clash with hispanola then OTS.

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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This is looking more and like a swing and a miss. No threat to the Gulf, very slight for FL. maybe a chance Carolinas or eastern New England.

Wayyy to early. Dangerous setup with the trough comibg through and possibly capturing the storm. Euro has a very interesting setup 

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