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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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Will be interesting to watch all the models sniff this one out.  Last night it had the storm making landfall in Central America this morning it goes up Florida before yesterday had it in Louisiana. All of them have been showing a powerful cyclone. 

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one important thing I need to know and that is has orlando ever been ordered mandatory evacuation before? i'm taking my holiday there next week 

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I hope this doesn't hit the U.S. as bad as it could be (and due to how it may throw a wrench into the election unpredictably). But, at least we may finally have a nice storm to talk about.

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2 minutes ago, cdhay17 said:

12z GFS has it staying out in the Atlantic, away from US

Clips Cape Cod and New England

Very close to a capture and a dangerous hurricane a long the coast.

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The latest model trend is to more-robustly dig the upper midwest trough into the eastern US/western Atlantic and erode the ridging north of the system before it can even reach the western Caribbean.  That is still a ways out, though, so plenty of time for changes.

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1 hour ago, cdhay17 said:

12z GFS has it staying out in the Atlantic, away from US

That's been the case all season...weak, sheared systems.  Have we even seen anything get above a Cat 1?

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12z Euro ensembles a bit weaker/faster with the cut off low over E-CONUS, still a lot of spread but keeping the general idea of westerly track with a weak ridge building over top.

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's been the case all season...weak, sheared systems.  Have we even seen anything get above a Cat 1?

Gfs wasnt weak

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17 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Op Euro PR threat then a fish. Lots of spread as you should expect......

 

At this juncture you really should be really only looking at the ensemble mean which is way west... at least from my experience....

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The Euro op run (and supported by the ensemble mean) shows 97L making its first landfall in Columbia, South America. I believe (please correct me if I'm wrong) the last time a northern hemisphere cyclone made landfall on South America was Hurricane Ceasar in 1996. Right now modeling is forecasting a very favorable environment for development north of Venezuela. And although it's beyond the EPS's typical skill range most members are an eventual GOM track and much further west than the op run.

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9 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

The Euro op run (and supported by the ensemble mean) shows 97L making its first landfall in Columbia, South America. I believe (please correct me if I'm wrong) the last time a northern hemisphere cyclone made landfall on South America was Hurricane Ceasar in 1996. Right now modeling is forecasting a very favorable environment for development north of Venezuela. And although it's beyond the EPS's typical skill range most members are an eventual GOM track and much further west than the op run.

GEFS Ensemble is tightly wound around the operational run. No members into the GOM, all showing a clash with hispanola then OTS.

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1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

This is looking more and like a swing and a miss. No threat to the Gulf, very slight for FL. maybe a chance Carolinas or eastern New England.

Way to early.

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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This is looking more and like a swing and a miss. No threat to the Gulf, very slight for FL. maybe a chance Carolinas or eastern New England.

Wayyy to early. Dangerous setup with the trough comibg through and possibly capturing the storm. Euro has a very interesting setup 

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12z HWRF has a cat 2 cane striking the lesser Antilles in roughly 60 hours. That would be the first serious threat they have faced in awhile. Gets down to the low 940's south of Hispaniola, in a similar spot to where Sandy was picked up.

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I agree. It's too early to write off any CONUS scenario including GOM entries. The EPS spread after D7 and on to D10 looks like random dart throws, but verbatim the mean is still for a GOM entry.

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