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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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14 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

Even if the wave doesn't have a closed circulation shouldn't TS warning be able to be issued since it has sustained winds it looks like now up to 45 knots or 50 mph.

Nope since it's not yet a tropical cyclone. I believe they will be issuing products (track maps and watches/warning) pre-development beginning in 2017 or 2018. 

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13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow already 60 mph winds

It wouldn't take much to become a hurricane

It has no inner core and a pressure of 1008, still early in the development cycle.  It has plenty of work to do to become a hurricane.  Models/environmental conditions suggest organization will continue to be gradual over the next day or two.

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10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's going to be moving into a less favorable upper air environment until it reaches the Central Caribbean so that should at least halt any major strengthening.

 

mathew.GIF

I don't know if I agree.  If it stays low enough, that's a very well-ventilated environment and that can be more beneficial for strengthening than moderate shear is harmful.

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It's going to be moving into a less favorable upper air environment until it reaches the Central Caribbean so that should at least halt any major strengthening.

 

mathew.GIF

The current TUTT you see over the Caribbean is forecast to lift NW as it weakens. Matthew likely will encounter some shear as the center moves underneath the eastern entrance region of the TUTT, which should help to initially keep significant or rapid intensification in check. However, as the TUTT lifts and weakens, upper ridging is shown to develop in the models with healthy poleward outflow to the north. Probably why most of the models are showing significant intensification in the central Caribbean.

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