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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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12 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

Did you mean more a WNW / NW component soon?

Yeah.    I'm more concerned for SC than I am for FL.  It is difficult to imagine the amount of seawater that will pile

up on the SC coast over many hours.   Looking at the NAM, the SC coastline is in big trouble

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14 minutes ago, DoctorMu said:

Yeah, he would barely be able to talk and the trees would be stripped of their foliage; many knocked down.

Agree, but I think he only gave raw numbers...never said mph. I think he's using kph.

And,no, I didn't calculate the difference.

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So actual satellite trajectory isn't fact? Actual model output showing offshore isn't fact? If those aren't fact, visual facts, I'm not sure what is. Look Im not trying to downplay this but the idea of a LF in central FL has diminished quite a bit from this time last night. You're right though.....nobody knows for certain but I have stated facts. I'm cheering against LF btw fwiw. I don't want a natural disaster. I also have family stuck in Disney World attm.

80+mph winds associated with the western eyewall are currently 11.3 miles from the coast near Jupiter, FL.  

11.3 miles.

 

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3 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Agree, but I think he only gave raw numbers...never said mph. I think he's using kph.

And,no, I didn't calculate the difference.

Multiply by 0.6.  More reasonable, then 140 kph = 84 mph.

 

The Boston-like accent threw me off

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Sorry for off-topic slightly. Back to discussion.

If, as some suggested, this OEW takes over and the overall eye expands, that certainly increases the chance for a LF by definition.

I don't know that it increases landfall chances, it does increase significantly the chances that the coastline receives eyewall type winds.

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9 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Looking at the Melbourne radar long range loop, Matt does appear to be working toward a possible Canaveral landfall

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=mlb&product=N0Z&loop=yes

Something else I've noticed recently looking at that same radar the rain bands are more widespread in coverage than a few hours ago. The western side of Matthew looked so anemic earlier with the rain bands. 

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At 02z or 10 p.m. EDT, the peak wind gusts on land in FL were 49 mph at Vero Beach, although Palm Beach is not available. 

Ocean buoy 41009 east of Cape Canaveral has gusts to 43 knots that we can expect will ramp up rather quickly. Sebastian Inlet also reporting 40 knots sustained. 

My estimate is also that the eye is headed for Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach might be grazed by the western side of it. 

This is by no means a bust for any locations north of Jupiter (yet) and nobody should assume they are off the hook, the radar presentation makes it appear that the storm is slowly accelerating but it is gaining longitude and almost certainly won't be a significant miss, but some form of shore-hugging trajectory with wobbles and eyewall rotations being key to the details of what actually happens.

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recon found ~110kt SFMR surface winds in the northeast eye wall. Pressure remains unchanged. Only about 80kt in southwest eye wall. 

There are also two wind maxima in the southwest quad.recon_AF307-3114A-MATTHEW.png

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6 minutes ago, toxictwister00 said:

Something else I've noticed recently looking at that same radar the rain bands are more widespread in coverage than a few hours ago. The western side of Matthew looked so anemic earlier with the rain bands. 

Those bands are too closely spaced for deepening, it shouldn't look like one big blob.

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If you follow the OEW you can see that Matthew is ever so slowly eating up the ground between itself and the coastline. It's going to be a very close call for landfall either way.

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Two wind maxima are also obvious per recon in the northeast quad. That IEW is being very pesky...

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Outer eyewall is stronger at FL(Flight Level) than inner eyewall, however inner eyewall still maintains near cat 4 windspeeds at the surface. Inner eyewall should start weakening since winds aloft are not nearly as impressive as they were and outer eyewall windspeeds are increasing at a decent rate.

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The landfall point is important, but with this storm there will probably be a significant distance of coastline that gets eyewall conditions.   Farther north actually having the eye pass over.  Then landfall, which will probably bring higher winds and surge, which also may move along the coast for some time.  

The exact landfall point is pretty much academic considering how large an area could potentially be affected by the eye, especially the outer one if it continues in this form.

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3 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Where are you linking from - NHC site is not available on this end?

This was according to Norcross on TWC.

Looks like all of the .noaa websites are down, SPC, NHC, WPC, etc.

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NW quadrant looking the strongest, and there's more development on the SE side of the IEW. My brother's in Port St Lucie working for FPL, looks like his nights about to get rough :/

 

matteye.png

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The FL coast slopes NNW here on out, so the eye will have to really turn NW for a while to make landfall anywhere in FL. I'm pretty confident at this point it doesn't happen. The western eyewall might make it onto Cape Canaveral, but a full landfall is pretty unlikely now. This morning's good north jog maybe saved it. The models shifting east at 0z makes me more confident. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The FL coast slopes NNW here on out, so the eye will have to really turn NW for a while to make landfall anywhere in FL. I'm pretty confident at this point it doesn't happen. The western eyewall might make it onto Cape Canaveral, but a full landfall is pretty unlikely now. This morning's good north jog maybe saved it. The models shifting east at 0z makes me more confident. 

Somebody at TWC appeared to have made an error. Trajectory is still to the NW. Cone however has shifted significantly in the short-term.

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Somebody at TWC appeared to have made an error. Trajectory is still to the NW. Cone however has shifted significantly.

Somehow my question about where and how to link the NHC got deleted. Mods? If so - PM me Mod. This is a legitimate question.

What is the trajectory/cone change (?) - as I cannot get the NHC to load.

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The FL coast slopes NNW here on out, so the eye will have to really turn NW for a while to make landfall anywhere in FL. I'm pretty confident at this point it doesn't happen. The western eyewall might make it onto Cape Canaveral, but a full landfall is pretty unlikely now. This morning's good north jog maybe saved it. The models shifting east at 0z makes me more confident. 

 

Except the vector of the storm slightly west of parallel with the coastline  Following the inner eyeball has been problematic.

florida_radar_long.gif

 

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1 minute ago, pcbjr said:

Somehow my question about where and how to link the NHC got deleted. Mods? If so - PM me Mod. This is a legitimate question.

What is the trajectory/cone change (?) - as I cannot get the NHC to load.

Neither can I, but I made this as big as possible to look at. Looks like it's offshore for Florida.

 

Snap 2016-10-06 at 23.09.00.png

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