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PTC Matthew


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Just now, WeatherFan202 said:

I can not get onto the NHC website. If anyone here can, can they please post the 11 pm discussion. 

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

The satellite appearance of Matthew has improved during the past
several hours, with an eye embedded within a more circular central
dense overcast and an increase in the outer banding.  Reports from
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and coastal radar data show the
presence of centric eyewalls with diameters of about 8 and 60 n mi
respectively.  The NOAA aircraft earlier reported a minimum pressure
of 937 mb, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter just reported
estimated surface winds of 109 kt from the SFMR and a pressure of
939 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is 115 kt.

The initial motion is 325/11 kt. For the next 24-48 hours, Matthew
should move around the western end of the subtropical ridge, with
the motion gradually turning northward and then northeastward.
During this time, the center of the guidance envelope and the
various consensus models have shifted a little to the east. However,
the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET continue to suggest the possibility of the
hurricane making landfall in Florida and then moving near the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina.  This part of the forecast is nudged
a little to the east and lies between the model consensus and the
previous forecast. After 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level ridge is
forecast to build north and west of Matthew, and the track guidance
forecasts a southeasterly to southerly motion in response. While
there is still a large spread, the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET are in
better agreement that Matthew should move south between the ridge
and Hurricane Nicole to the east.  This part of the forecast follows
this guidance and lies between the GFS and ECMWF.

During the next 12-24 hours, Matthew will likely weaken a little as
it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle.  After that time, it is
expected to encounter strong southwesterly vertical shear, and later
in the forecast period dry air is likely to entrain into the
cyclone.  This combination should cause steady weakening, and
Matthew is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by 72 hours.
The new intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS
model.
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2 minutes ago, DoctorMu said:

 

The eyewall will contact Cape Canaveral if the current vector continues, imo

I agree the western eyewall might make it to Cape Canaveral, but it'll be a race between that and the ridge orientation nudging it east. And the western eyewall won't be anything like the north or east eyewall. 

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Just now, pcbjr said:

so still no nhc active link here- Question : as of 11:00 is he more off shore and weakening?

Not weakening, but doesn't appear to be strengthening either. The nearly constant (for several hours) bizarre inner-structure of Matthew with concentric eye walls has halted any potential strengthening it appears. 

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Not weakening, but doesn't appear to be strengthening either. The nearly constant (for several hours) bizarre inner-structure of Matthew with concentric eye walls has halted any potential strengthening it appears. 

It's not bizarre, it's super common in intense, mature tropical cyclones.  

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FL hurricane-force wind field has definitely expanded N/E. Gotta wonder where all the energy is going with the pressure being sub-940... 

Note: This might not be 100% accurate, but generally appears the the outer eye-wall is beginning to fill in more with stronger convection/radar returns, which may finally choke off the inner eye-wall. 

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Some of the more solid rain bands and probable sustained TS with high end TS/ Cat 1 gusts are starting to move into the region of shoreline between Vero and Palm Beaches.

Tracking this elaborate dance of the inner and outer eyewalls has been fascinating if not maddening on radar. KMLB and KAMX radars are about 175 miles apart and the center of Matthew lies smack in between them offshore currently. It will get better as the night goes on as the hurricane tracks towards Melbourne (MLB) but right now the beams from both radars are hitting the inner eye at roughly 10-14k feet. Looking at velocities of stuff coming in towards Vero to Jupiter region is interrupted by velocities changing from toward to away due to the storm's trajectory. But can see enough to deduce that conditions are likely really headed downhill in that area...alot of 40-60+knot velocities either side that would easily get mixed down in the embedded stronger cells/bands. 

Also noteworthy, the double wind maxima in the NE quadrant is evident on Melbourne's radar with two areas of 95-105 knots at about the 9-10k feet level.

2016-10-06_2322.png

 

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6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

FL hurricane-force wind field has definitely expanded N/E. Gotta wonder where all the energy is going with the pressure being sub-940... 

Note: This might not be 100% accurate, but generally appears the the outer eye-wall is beginning to fill in more with stronger convection/radar returns, which may finally choke off the inner eye-wall. 

Yes, it appears to be accurate. FL winds in the OEW are now 108kts+ on the NE quad, which is impressive.

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03z (11 pm) max gusts on land in FL __ 52 mph at Melbourne.

Coastal and offshore buoys in 40-50 knot range. 

When the NHC was up I noticed that the 12z predicted position was almost identical to buoy 41009 just offshore Cape Canaveral. 

RGEM has track 10-30 miles off coast, continues with the loop theme at 48h. CMC analysis showed 570 dm 500-mb low over Matthew's position at 00z.

12h prog for that was 569 dm.

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5 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

FL hurricane-force wind field has definitely expanded N/E. Gotta wonder where all the energy is going with the pressure being sub-940... 

Note: This might not be 100% accurate, but generally appears the the outer eye-wall is beginning to fill in more with stronger convection/radar returns, which may finally choke off the inner eye-wall. 

As of 00Z Matthew's integrated kinetic energy has actually been increasing throughout the day even though the maximum speed of the surface winds hasn't changed much. Matthew's power output is going into moving more parcels at faster speeds overall instead of increasing the speeds of the fewer parcels that were already fast to begin with. A broadening of the wind field would be an expected response in this situation.

wXVuVTq.gif

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2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

03z (11 pm) max gusts on land in FL __ 52 mph at Melbourne.

Coastal and offshore buoys in 40-50 knot range. 

When the NHC was up I noticed that the 12z predicted position was almost identical to buoy 41009 just offshore Cape Canaveral. 

RGEM has track 10-30 miles off coast, continues with the loop theme at 48h. CMC analysis showed 570 dm 500-mb low over Matthew's position at 00z.

12h prog for that was 569 dm.

There'll probably be hurricane force wind somewhere before the end, maybe Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral. The western outer eyewall band should still make it that far. 

Massive bullet dodged tonight (hopefully). The few dozen miles east of projections is doing the trick so far. 

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