• Member Statistics

    16,091
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    hubric
    Newest Member
    hubric
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Seems a scoot to the near due north the last several frames

The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. 

I truly hope you are right, but I defer to NHC this close in

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. 

You have to remember, there are a few parts of the eastern FL coast that kind of jut out into the ocean a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. 

I really don't think it matters at this point. Eyewall or landfal there is still going to be some major damage in the coastal counties.... even up in N FL the NWS is predicting gusts up to 120mph. That is some pretty serious stuff!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

23z hrrr seems to show rapid improvement in organization in the next couple of hours followed by a long and heavy landfall. it's not a tropical model, so more sure about the track than the intensification, but something to keep an eye on, no pun intended.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

Im so confused. How can this be a cat 4 if recon is only finding up to 85-90 knot surface winds.

There was a dropsonde with surface winds of 113 kts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overall circulation as a whole is still moving NW, or maybe NNW.. Stop paying so much attention to the IEW, as was said earlier, you will literally drive yourself crazy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Roger Smith said:

00z (8 pm EDT) highest gust in FL __ 48 mph (West Palm Beach)

 

I know you're probably just going by the NWS list of observations, but here's from the 8 pm advisory:

The Lake Worth Pier near Palm Beach, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 60
mph (96 km/h).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

23z hrrr seems to show rapid improvement in organization in the next couple of hours followed by a long and heavy landfall. it's not a tropical model, so more sure about the track than the intensification, but something to keep an eye on, no pun intended.

If the band Near daytona collapses into the storm like the HRRR is showing that may give it an intensity boost.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some of the meso models do show a bend to the wnw over the next few hours (a few hour jog wnw). Should be interesting timeframe b/n now and 1 or 2 am. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I know you're probably just going by the NWS list of observations, but here's from the 8 pm advisory:

The Lake Worth Pier near Palm Beach, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 60
mph (96 km/h).

I'm aware of those reports, this is a log of highest wind gusts at land stations or maybe I should say regular airport weather stations. But I will include these supplementary and offshore sites from now on since we have this one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even the official NHC track doesn't take the center fully over land at any point, just very close. Either way if the eyewall drags the heavily populated coast of FL it is a disaster. I wouldn't write off a landfall just yet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last  hour or so the OEW seems to have filled in. Is this the result of the end of the eye wall replacement cycle?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, winterymix said:

CNN  has reports of people refusing to evacuate.

Probably the best possible outcome for those folks is two weeks

without electricity.

 

 

 

You know I am sure that a lot of those folks would not have a problem with leaving if it was not for one thing. And that is the authorities that are going to stop them from returning home for days, weeks, or months after the hurricane is gone. That is the part that would make me hesitant to leave.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I understand the concept of eyewall replacement. But is it typical for a hurricane to have two eyewalls for this long a period of time ... and isn't the outer eyewall kind of large for an eyewall?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

You have to remember, there are a few parts of the eastern FL coast that kind of jut out into the ocean a bit.

I know, Cape Canaveral is the wild card, but the last 6 hours or so makes me think the eye stays offshore. Models shifting a little bit east gives me some more confidence. The western eyewall might make it here or there however. In terms of really devastating impact, hopefully it stays offshore. If it does, winds will be where building codes can handle, and surge won't be too bad a problem because winds will be offshore. But I definitely might wake up tomorrow morning eating crow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Some of the meso models do show a bend to the wnw over the next few hours (a few hour jog wnw). Should be interesting timeframe b/n now and 1 or 2 am. 

I was just reviewing the radar. If the current trend continues, some of the calls of kissing Cape Canaveral may be right. Regardless, some nicee feeder bands making to the west coast of Florida. Possible rogue twisters in the cells.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.