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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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While I agree it's too early to make a definitive call, if you look at the most recent satellite loop, unless it makes a pretty decent bend to the west, I don't see how it makes it to the coast, it looks like it's already moving parallel and it's well offshore.

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Just now, audioguy3107 said:

While I agree it's too early to make a definitive call, if you look at the most recent satellite loop, unless it makes a pretty decent bend to the west, I don't see how it makes it to the coast, it looks like it's already moving parallel and it's well offshore.

SORRY... but it is definitely not running parallel.. not even close.  been wobbling back and forth from NW to NNW

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Not sure this is any type of eyewall replacement cycle, but more of a reorganization. The hurricane has clearly been under some slight shear/dry air and the CDO was lopsided. The latest satellite/radar shows it working out the dry air and improving organization. Perhaps some of the islands have played an impact as well. Also these posts claiming every wobble north means no landfall are clueless. The storm is right on track.

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3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

It's a tug of war right now...the outer eyewall is shrinking, and the inner one is responding by getting a lot more active :D

Yep....the proximity of the inner structure to the outer one has gotten close enough for there to be some transport of energy into the inner...

IOW, lots of spirals inward are much better for the inner structure than lots of concentric bands...

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3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

when is RECON heading back in there to check this out? 

Plan of the day was to have one on its way back now and another scheduled for 2330z

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2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

SORRY... but it is definitely not running parallel.. not even close.  been wobbling back and forth from NW to NNW

If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall.

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1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said:

If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall.

OK so your soooo sure of that... but your claim that it is running parallel to the coast is FALSE.  Look at the MIAMI radar....

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If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall.

Noted. Now let's see if the trend continues for several more hours or if the primary eyewall begins getting pulled with mass displacement more NW in the same direction that clearly the western outer band motion is currently moving.

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2 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall.

A ruler? It's clearly moving NW right now and would LF in Florida if it stays this path. 

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2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

OK so your soooo sure of that... but your claim that it is running parallel to the coast is FALSE.  Look at the MIAMI radar....

Ok ok sorry, almost parallel (to the upper east coast i.e. Melbourne, Daytona Beach, not the Miami area).  Definitely NNW though.  Calm down.

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10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Not sure this is any type of eyewall replacement cycle, but more of a reorganization. The hurricane has clearly been under some slight shear/dry air and the CDO was lopsided. The latest satellite/radar shows it working out the dry air and improving organization. Perhaps some of the islands have played an impact as well. Also these posts claiming every wobble north means no landfall are clueless. The storm is right on track.

Oh, but this is clearly an ERC...many signals point to that. The 2nd wind maxima is clear on recon obs, the radar moat and the sinking air around the inner eyewall shown earlier in sat imagery are clear as the day. Right now the outer eyewall is visibly shrinking as shown on radar, and the inner eyewall is giving the good fight.

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5 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall.

You need to look at the modeled path.  If you did, you would see that a more NW track is being modeled later tonight

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11 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Yep....the proximity of the inner structure to the outer one has gotten close enough for there to be some transport of energy into the inner...

IOW, lots of spirals inward are much better for the inner structure than lots of concentric bands...

Should be interesting to see what happens when it completes it's cycle during the Diurnal max tonight. 

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Jogs in path are consistent with solar-lunar tidal forces which could produce 25-50 nm deviations from a smooth path.

Sunset is around 23z and moonset 04z with the moon almost at its transit (overhead or high to south). 

Hence the net eastward pull on Matthew peaked around two hours ago, the net westward pull comes around 8-10 hours from now, or just as Matthew is approaching Florida. That will correct the deviation from the NW track but I don't expect any heading less than 310 deg, my prediction is a semi-landfall at Cape Canaveral with the eye just about all over land briefly then back into the coastal waters due to the shape of the coastline with the western half of the eye on land all the way to Atlantic Beach. 

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Just a couple quality of life tips. First, if you stare at a radar loop of a tropical cyclone long enough you'll start hallucinating. They rarely move in a straight line, often it's more like stair steps. Or at least a bumpy road. When in doubt rely on fixes from recon. Also, winds are strongest in the NE quadrant. A NW to SE pass usually won't sample the strongest winds.

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Matthew really starting to look scary on infrared.

With the recent northward movement a lot of the SE FL beach communities much be breathing a sigh of relief.

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