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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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What potential role could the Fujiwarha effect play in to the track modeling (are the models even programmed to account for this possibility).

Based on what I've read, interaction appear to start at about ~900 miles between the systems.  Over the next few days, both Matthew & Nicole will be at or closer to that value, could a possible interaction be disturbing or altering the track as depicted, or a track on the future?

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15 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

So, with that recon, this will be updated to a Cat 3, yes?  126 mph surface winds

Doubtful they will drop it by that much.  Would think they would take a more conservative approach to any weakening and wait to see what data looks like later.

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

This looks as a failed attempt at a ERC. You can see the inner eye intensifying and the outer eye dissipating. 

Matthew has never liked classic ERC's 

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Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Looks like it may be getting stronger, again. Next loop of recon will tell us if that's true or not.

 

Yeah, recon should be heading in at the perfect time

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Just now, Windspeed said:

The western band of the outer eye is looking stronger. The NE quadrant of the inner eye looking even more intense.

66510c681f49254567d1c186339f198c.jpg

Freeport is gonig to get utterly raked by the inner eyewall.

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9 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said:

Silly question for the mets, but is it possible for the inner eye to begin interacting with the outer eye given how close they seem to be getting?

Yes....and if it does, some of the angular momentum can be transported into the inner EW, and relative the the outer, become stronger....thus halting the ERC....

....and yes, this can lead to strengthening of the max wind speeds in the inner EW, and a deeper pressure...but at the expense of the outer bands intensity...

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Maybe this has already been discussed today but how are the tidal charts lining up with possible landfall? I briefly glanced at the charts for most of the Fla coast last night and it seemed high tides are occuring in the 1-2 AM time frame.

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This wind sensor west of Freeport at the western tip of the island will give us lots of data (I hope) as the eye seems likely to pass right over it in 3-4 hours. Winds are recorded every 10 mins.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

(Settlement Point, it's always on the Florida hourly obs with Florida southeast buoys too)

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