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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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Interesting features on the 0.5 degree scan from KAMX in the eastern part of the inner eyewall. Large Zdr and Kdp for a tropical system. It happens to coincide with the bottom of the melting layer so I wonder if it is a result of both a large number of moderate sized raindrops and a few, oblate melting aggregates. Also some nonuniform beam filling reducing RhoHV along a few radials that partially intercept the top of the convection in the eyewall.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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Just now, heavy_wx said:

Interesting features on the 0.5 degree scan from KAMX in the eastern part of the inner eyewall. Large Zdr and Kdp for a tropical system. It happens to coincide with the bottom of the melting layer so I wonder if it is a result of both a large number of moderate sized raindrops and a few, oblate melting aggregates. Also some nonuniform beam filling reducing RhoHV along a few radials that partially intercept the top of the convection in the eyewall.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 

Its probably birds. We saw the same thing with Hermine and Alex 

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6 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

Maybe this has already been discussed today but how are the tidal charts lining up with possible landfall? I briefly glanced at the charts for most of the Fla coast last night and it seemed high tides are occuring in the 1-2 AM time frame.

From here you can navigate to wherever just not Colorado.

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/tidestation.cgi?call=EW7223
 

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4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Its probably birds. We saw the same thing with Hermine and Alex 

Actually in the eastern eyewall, not the eye itself. Strong northern wall convection is contributing to the non-uniform beam filling noted in CC for sure. And there definitely have to be some larger drops in the eastern eyewall given the dual-pol variables. A lot of liquid in there.

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8 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

Interesting features on the 0.5 degree scan from KAMX in the eastern part of the inner eyewall. Large Zdr and Kdp for a tropical system. It happens to coincide with the bottom of the melting layer so I wonder if it is a result of both a large number of moderate sized raindrops and a few, oblate melting aggregates. Also some nonuniform beam filling reducing RhoHV along a few radials that partially intercept the top of the convection in the eyewall.
 

Birds, I'm thinking.  That's the pattern I saw with Hermine.  They showed up in larger and larger numbers as Hermine approached, dropping the 0.5 beam's elevation.  Hermine was passing over a major fall migration staging area where huge rafts of water birds roost and feed.  That's one reason that portion of the coast is a major wildlife refuge. 

(If I'm wrong, I'd love to hear more about how you distinguish those biological returns from the aggregates and raindrop returns - let's continue that chat in banter or some other forum)

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Its probably birds. We saw the same thing with Hermine and Alex 


Aren't birds usually found in the precip-free eye? Also, for biological scatter to produce such large values of Kdp, you would need a lot of birds; that would substantially reduce RhoHV below the general values observed in the eyewall, outside of the NBF reductions I mentioned above.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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15 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

Maybe this has already been discussed today but how are the tidal charts lining up with possible landfall? I briefly glanced at the charts for most of the Fla coast last night and it seemed high tides are occuring in the 1-2 AM time frame.

Tidal range is pretty small 3 feet at most

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4 minutes ago, SharonA said:

Birds, I'm thinking.  That's the pattern I saw with Hermine.  They showed up in larger and larger numbers as Hermine approached, dropping the 0.5 beam's elevation.  Hermine was passing over a major fall migration staging area where huge rafts of water birds roost and feed.  That's one reason that portion of the coast is a major wildlife refuge. 

(If I'm wrong, I'd love to hear more about how you distinguish those biological returns from the aggregates and raindrop returns - let's continue that chat in banter or some other forum)

Ahh....but with the satellite depiction of overshooting tops, I'd think more along the lines of heavywx......unless those are all white seagulls...and feathers... ;)

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Starting to think more likely than not it won't make landfall in FL. It's a slight bit east still of the NHC track, which as it is has it maybe brush by Cape Canaveral. It'll have to trend back west fairly soon for it to have a real shot, it's clearly headed NNW now and will go parallel, maybe 40-50 miles off the coast at this rate. That will be enough for cat 1 winds at the immediate shore, but the really destructive stuff staying out. And eastern FL lives another day without a landfalling hurricane. 

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2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

....and as I suspected, the COC (of the inner structure) is notably taking on a more westward movement...

Was just about to post the same thing. Currently a burst of CG lightning in the northern eyewall with a few positive strikes.

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Starting to think more likely than not it won't make landfall in FL. It's a slight bit east still of the NHC track, which as it is has it maybe brush by Cape Canaveral. It'll have to trend back west fairly soon for it to have a real shot, it's clearly headed NNW now and will go parallel, maybe 40-50 miles off the coast at this rate. That will be enough for cat 1 winds at the immediate shore, but the really destructive stuff staying out. And eastern FL lives another day without a landfalling hurricane. 

Way too early to make this call, especially with the inner eyewall bouncing around as it congeals with the outer eyewall. Not to mention convection flaring up that could cause wobbles.

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7 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

looking at last few frames of the radar... looks like the outer eyewall is sinking down to the inner eyewall.... BOY that inner eyewall is extremely intense now!

It's a tug of war right now...the outer eyewall is shrinking, and the inner one is responding by getting a lot more active :D

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Starting to think more likely than not it won't make landfall in FL. It's a slight bit east still of the NHC track, which as it is has it maybe brush by Cape Canaveral. It'll have to trend back west fairly soon for it to have a real shot, it's clearly headed NNW now and will go parallel, maybe 40-50 miles off the coast at this rate. That will be enough for cat 1 winds at the immediate shore, but the really destructive stuff staying out. And eastern FL lives another day without a landfalling hurricane. 

That's what we can hope for honestly, because at this point if it does hit it will be devastating in that locale.  However, I do think it will make it there or be extremely close unfortunately.

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