rolltide_130

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Everything posted by rolltide_130

  1. It took 7 years but I finally saw a season of sustained A/AA activity.. although I know that may be a controversial statement in itself lol. The pattern looks somewhat similar to last winter at this time so I'll stick with persistence. 1345 First high risk 4/20
  2. 1050 tornadoes First (and only) high risk May 24th I think overall things are improved from 2018, but I'm still wary of the state of the PDO until there starts to be a long term reversal of its pattern (and it doesn't help that the NOAA site I've relied on for it is shut down currently) I think we see at least somewhat of an improvement over 2018 with a lot of that reasoning being that 2018, at least in the modern era, is the rock bottom in terms of an active severe weather year. Going to have to closely watch for any sort of late season SSW shenanigans again like what happened last year, but the current pattern looks improved to hopefully set the stage for a better season W of I-35. As for Dixie, I imagine we'll get some threats here as well but nothing really sticks out to me about the Dixie season as of right now. Years coming off a Nino are pretty hit-and-miss here, but the PDO plays a large role in that and IIRC its positive still but I don't know where to access that data outside the currently closed NOAA pages.
  3. It is reitensifying and already absolutely battering the OBX with more to come. Also, saying it is barely a cat 1 is quite literally factually incorrect. The only big time swing and a miss is your post if we're being honest here. I would take that down if I were you. Very very low quality discussion.
  4. *IF it stops gulping enough dry air to fill the Sahara desert. I don't see that happening frankly.
  5. And today was downgraded even further to Slight, with a Marginal where the original MDT was. I think we may be locked in to 2018 being the worst severe season on record at this point, even worse than the 1980s... this is abysmal.
  6. That's true. However as for severe, I'm now back into looking towards the next season. 2019, at least for now, looks a bit more promising in terms of seasonal analogs (I saw 2010, 2007, and 2005 mentioned - 2010 and 2007 both being good years and 2005 not being great but still a massive upgrade over this year), but we'll have to see if that holds or if, when we do get good setups, mesoscale features don't actually ruin it.
  7. On that note, today and tomorrow have both trended down significantly. Expect next week to do the same within 36 hours.. that's all I really have to say about that. It will happen.
  8. Tomorrow is a giant big pile of "meh" on the nightly guidance IMHO. Looks like an early/midday MCS washout which may kill the threat entirely unless this just doesn't materialize, although 999/1000 times it does and it puts a damper on things. Not impressed at all tonight.
  9. Don't rule out a severe threat for the first few days of June - GFS has been holding the idea and some of the thermos are flat out riduclious for Dixie Alley. Shear is meh but if some of the CAPE profiles verify, it may not matter much especially with the SE motion that seems likely.
  10. Just minus the good radar coverage because apparently SW AR doesn't need a radar site.
  11. Beginning to see the discrete supercells becoming dominant. Shear profiles kicking in as the sun starts to go down and the LLJ gets going.
  12. The odds of that happening are non-existent. This is a sig threat but not a massive outbreak.
  13. What would happen to the data if you removed April 2011 from the dataset? I noticed that April averaged more tornado reports per day than May but that seems to be heavily skewed by 2011.
  14. Going to need to watch these next couple of weeks closely.. some alarming analogs are popping up and the trend is towards a massive, low-amplitude trough to sweep through here within the D 10-15 range. Those can spell trouble..
  15. Oof, the NAM has a potentially isolated but significant event near Enid on the 12z run for Sunday evening. Dryline bulge close to the triple point.. that can spell trouble.
  16. There is potential for a significant, multi-region severe weather threat for the very early part of next week on all major models. The 12z GFS, NAM, and EURO all show a shortwave ejecting out into the central and eastern U.S, and seem to be converging on a severe weather outbreak for multiple subforums. A sub 995mb low is forecast to traverse from KS into Southern MO/AR, and very strong moisture return is forecast to push up into parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Dixie, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ahead of this surface low, and both low level and deep layer shear is more than adequate for a potential multi region severe weather outbreak early next week..
  17. NE Texas may be needing a close watch.. this is definitely one of the more bizzare systems in terms of model handling that I've seen.
  18. I don't see much with this one. Subtropical jet is messing the entire system up both kinematically and thermodynamically. It looks more like a flooding threat for now..
  19. Okay, it may be time to start sounding the alarm bells for a significant severe weather threat across the eastern portion of the subforum for this Saturday.. The Euro has been slowly trending towards a more active solution over the last 48 hours, with the warm sector rapidly becoming more favorable across the Mississippi Valley in addition to kinematics that have been strong from the start. SBCAPE has been on a massive uptick, with values of well over 2000 J/KG now in place across the region. Put that below over 60 knots of deep layer shear, and well.. problems may start arising..
  20. Yeah this thing went to crap literally the model run after I posted this thread.. on to the next one I suppose..
  21. There has been an awakening.. have you felt it? *Cue Star Wars theme song* But in all seriousness, I think it's safe to make a thread for Monday now. It's looking increasingly like this could be the first significant severe setup of 2018. The Euro has a very large trough dipping into the central portion of the country, and it's been holding on to that feature for a few days now. It's also got a BIG response from the LLJ, with widespread 50-60kt winds from E TX all the way up into IL and IN. On that note, the CIPS analogs have some significant ones making appearances, with 3/13/2006 and 2/5/2008 both showing up as of the 12z runs today.. Still a lot of time to change, but this one is worth watching.
  22. Euro holding on to what may be a potentially substantial threat on Monday across areas E of I-35 and into AR/MO. Almost looks like more of an April/May setup with how much that SE ridge is pumping itself up, and this will be coupled with a strong LLJ response. This could be the first significant severe threat of the year..
  23. Literally anywhere is due for a whippin by this point. Our last event that was a synoptically evident violent event multiple days out was 4/28/14
  24. What significance would Nina lasting in May have for the plains? Increased rainfall for March/April? I have a trip out there this May as well but I've more or less written off any hope of much action west of the I-35 corridor and I'm more prepped for an E OK/KS year this year.