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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Pretty impressive rain bands pivoting into NE FL now.

 

 

Yes definitely.... Getting reports from CNN out of St Augustine that they are without power and they are turning off the water.

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Combination of a poorly timed ERC, increased shear, land interaction and last minute shift East on the track all combined to spare Florida what looked to be a devastating landfall. 

Still, that Northern and Eastern eyewall still mean business and it's attempting to wrap around the Western as we speak.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Combination of a poorly times ERC, increased shear, land interaction and last minute shift East on the track all combined to spare Florida what looked to be a devastating landfall. 

Still, that Northern and Eastern eyewall still mean business and it's attempting to wrap around the Western as we speak.

So far not a single report of real serious damage.

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1 minute ago, Morris said:

So far not a single report of real serious damage.

Fortunate that the ERC occurred when it did.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Fortunate that the ERC occurred when it did.

It's not just the ERC but also the paralleling of the coast.  The forward momentum of a storm hitting perpendicular to the coast at LF is far worse from a storm surge standpoint then a storm moving parallel to the coast.

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

All the idiots that said "I'm not leaving, it's never as bad as they say it will be" will feel vindicated.  

those people exist in this thread :D

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Most of them will never know how close they were to experiencing a strong cat 4 landfall.

Honestly, many of us thought that were hyping it beyond what we knew starting in the evening. Recon continued showing weak sauce winds and the model consensus changed that there would not be a Florida landfall in central Florida.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Did anyone see the 06z HWRF run? It actually has Matthew absorbing Nicole in 4-5 days off the New England coast.

Way offshore though

GFDL is also close. Doesn't loop the storm.

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CNN going strong this morning telling people to brace for the worst and generally making this out to be a much bigger deal than it will be.  The forecast yesterday was tough because as we know if the storm had been just 25-50 miles west it would have been devastating.  Imagine the eye moving in this trajectory but 50 miles west.  The beachfront communities would have all been in the NE quad all the way up the coast.  So this could have been a huge hit.  

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A lot of posters in here downplaying the situation when the eye wall is currently hammering New Smyrna Beach. This board becomes a pain to read sometimes with posters slamming the NHC and calling a bust when the eye is around 10 miles off shore. Wouldn't take a huge wobble to make landfall.

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1 minute ago, Hvward said:

A lot of posters in here downplaying the situation when the eye wall is currently hammering New Smyrna Beach. This board becomes a pain to read sometimes with posters slamming the NHC and calling a bust when the eye is around 10 miles off shore. Wouldn't take a huge wobble to make landfall.

This

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http://www.tribune242.com/news/2016/oct/07/grand-bahama-suffers-significant-damage-matthew-ro/?news

Finally a report. A lot of debris and reports of roofs gone. They're still trying to get around but a lot of debris and trees down.

"Portions of the homes were blown out and roofs were completely blown off," she told The Tribune shortly before 9am on Friday as authorities began making initial assessments of the damage the category 4 storm caused in Grand Bahama.

There were, however, no reports of lives lost.

"We had some very, very high winds," Ms Colebrooke said. "We think we caught 140mph conditions in the west. We had people still stuck in the west end area, reaching out for help. Right now we're trying to clear roads to make them passable. Our team has not reported back yet though."


Great news that so far no reported loss of life.

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3 minutes ago, pstar3182 said:

The MMQB'ing is obnoxious and creates a tone that trickles down through social media, where the public begins to not trust the NHC/NWS.  All because some feel their weatherbug skills are some how better than actual forecasting. Haters gona hate. 

This is 100% right.  People also conveniently forget that EWRCs are hard to predict, and you never know the outcome of one.  Also, the eyewall is 10 miles offshore!  If this thing makes a big wobble, it could rake Jacksonville still.  This isn't over yet.

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Can tell you guys from local tv video of Daytona Beach it does not bust like down there.  Pretty heavy looking stuff.



And that's still outside of the worst portion of the western eyewall. This bust talk is maddening. If anyone thinks they can forecast a parallel track any better, stop thinking.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
  SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

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