Not sure if NWS discussion belongs in Vendor thread or here... Please move if necessary. I'm a little uncertain as to why Mt. Holly seems to be quite cavalier in their wording in this morning's AFD. Precipitation discussion is one thing, but no mention of the potentially damaging winds being depicted on the majority of guidance? Upton singing a more expected tune.
It looks like there will be a pd of steady, heavy rain Sunday
night, especially over srn areas, though the guid still differs
on where the heaviest rain will fall and when.
The GFS wants to bring in a lull in the precip area wide on
Mon mrng while the ECMWF keeps it wet. The EC has perhaps a lull
later Mon. But it seems there will be a second wave at some
point on Mon, again, exactly where and when is difficult to
pinpoint attm. Yet a third wave looks to move thru Mon night
before the low pulls away from the region and things dry out
durg the second half of Tue.
Temps look to be above nrml durg this whole event and the vast
majority of the region will see plain rain durg the whole time
frame. However, temps could be marginally cold enough in the
Poconos and portions of Sussex County NJ Sun night for some
light amounts of freezing rain and there could be some light
amounts of snow as the cold air wraps around the low Monday
night. Neither of these look to be significant events, but
obviously bear watching.
Potential for strong, possibly damaging easterly winds, continues
to increase. EPS probabilities of sustained 40 mph winds and 60
mph wind gusts continue to remain high for the coastline and now
also for the highest interior elevations, and its probabilities of
45-mph wind gusts are over 50 percent over most of the area. Also,
both GFS and ECMWF MOS continue to predict increasing potential
for sustained winds over 30 mph Mon night into Tue morning,
perhaps as high as 40 mph at the peak of the storm across Long
Island/coastal CT/NYC metro.