mikemost

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About mikemost

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KMMU
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    Male
  • Location:
    Morristown, NJ

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  1. That's from 11:19am, they released a new set of maps at 3:14pm
  2. UKIE track is beautiful for the entire area.
  3. The return of Doorman! Just a result of the forecast offices not communicating yet... It should be more uniform by tonight.
  4. Yes, I'm aware. I was posting the 850mb winds in same frame as your reflectivity post above to illustrate that mixing will occur in many areas where the atmospheric inversions will be at a minimum. I can only post 850mb/10m as you know since it's tidbits. I'd post the stormvista 925mb maps if I could.
  5. Rough Tuesday incoming for power crews.
  6. Few branches down, reports of a full size tree down in East Hanover knocking out power to about 300 customers. Other than that, pretty quiet here in Whippany. Light rain started.
  7. Hi. Give me all the weather - Honestly, it's an ominous event. I hope folks along the coast are taking this seriously & that everyone is prepared for at least some power outages.
  8. Agreed... Out of my area of knowledge here - But looking at some of the soundings, there is definitely stability below 850mb. That being said, the trowel signature seems to be pronounced, and the intensity of the precipitation could mix down some of those 850mb winds, but to what extent? So I'd also love to hear a meteorologist perspective on how they think what happens at the surface.
  9. The mesos get a bad rap when they're utilized in incorrect situations (ugh, social media). I like the NAM for this event too, & the RGEM as well. I expect the mesoscale models to perform better than the global models for this event due to the dynamics at play. The NAM has a knack for handling thermal profiles well as we get closer to the event. I'm starting to give creedance to the heavy sleet solutions being depicted.
  10. He's an objective poster, he does not troll.
  11. Not sure if NWS discussion belongs in Vendor thread or here... Please move if necessary. I'm a little uncertain as to why Mt. Holly seems to be quite cavalier in their wording in this morning's AFD. Precipitation discussion is one thing, but no mention of the potentially damaging winds being depicted on the majority of guidance? Upton singing a more expected tune. Mt. Holly: It looks like there will be a pd of steady, heavy rain Sunday night, especially over srn areas, though the guid still differs on where the heaviest rain will fall and when. The GFS wants to bring in a lull in the precip area wide on Mon mrng while the ECMWF keeps it wet. The EC has perhaps a lull later Mon. But it seems there will be a second wave at some point on Mon, again, exactly where and when is difficult to pinpoint attm. Yet a third wave looks to move thru Mon night before the low pulls away from the region and things dry out durg the second half of Tue. Temps look to be above nrml durg this whole event and the vast majority of the region will see plain rain durg the whole time frame. However, temps could be marginally cold enough in the Poconos and portions of Sussex County NJ Sun night for some light amounts of freezing rain and there could be some light amounts of snow as the cold air wraps around the low Monday night. Neither of these look to be significant events, but obviously bear watching. OKX: Potential for strong, possibly damaging easterly winds, continues to increase. EPS probabilities of sustained 40 mph winds and 60 mph wind gusts continue to remain high for the coastline and now also for the highest interior elevations, and its probabilities of 45-mph wind gusts are over 50 percent over most of the area. Also, both GFS and ECMWF MOS continue to predict increasing potential for sustained winds over 30 mph Mon night into Tue morning, perhaps as high as 40 mph at the peak of the storm across Long Island/coastal CT/NYC metro.