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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

So say this makes landfall in Charlestown as a 100 mph storm? What would impacts be like there. I'd imagine it would be fairly devastating?

water will be the main danger moreso than wind.  downtown is extremely prone to flooding and the surge/onshore wind + 10"+ of rain will be devastating.

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

So say this makes landfall in Charlestown as a 100 mph storm? What would impacts be like there. I'd imagine it would be fairly devastating?

Going to really depend on if the center goes E or W of Charleston but should be a pretty good smack either way if the winds stay in the low cat 3 range. 

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just  venting right now.  CNN is doing a whole segment of the problems of families in Disney World and at the same time Reuters is reporting 862 people dead with the toll expected to go much higher. Village after village wiped out with whole populations without food, shelter or clean water.  Such a disconnect. We are so lucky to live in the US where we can argue what warnings were or were not warranted.  I'm sure most people on that island outside of Port Au Prince didn't even know a hurricane was approaching.

Edit.  I guess CNN is going to do a update on Haiti coming up.

They knew. You don't grow up down there without knowing what a bad storm looks like. Problem is, there isn't much they can do about it. Les Cayes was in the worst possible position, perpendicular to a Category 4 surge in an alluvial plain. 

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I'm 10 min SW of downtown Jax.  Pretty heavy squalls right now but nothing too extreme, quite a few trees down.  Local video and pics from the beaches look pretty rough.  Had this thing been another 30 miles west, yikes.

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1 minute ago, Jaguars said:

I'm 10 min SW of downtown Jax.  Pretty heavy squalls right now but nothing too extreme, quite a few trees down.  Local video and pics from the beaches look pretty rough.  Had this thing been another 30 miles west, yikes.

Are you in Avondale? Park Street area? If so, how's the river near you?

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Major surge damage being reported from St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach/Amelia Island into St. Mary's, Georgia.  NWS Jax has a flash flood emergency for Fernandina/Amelia.

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Worried about Amelia Island / Fernandina Beach(my friend lives there and he evacuated thankfully).  Serious surge and flash flooding happening at the moment. 6.5foot storm surge.  

"From NOAA: "Major Flooding is occurring around Amelia Island with the storm tide at Fernandina Beach exceeding Dora in 1964"

IMG_4031.JPG

 

From twitter:

IMG_4029.JPG

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16 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Are you in Avondale? Park Street area? If so, how's the river near you?

In Avondale right off Park.  Have not been down to the river since this morning.  Reporter downtown just showed the water coming over some railings.  You could tell this morning it was all piling up being pushed down from Mayport, problem is th St John's runs north.  So there's nowhere for it to go.  Video of St Mary's Ga looks bad with the storm surge there as well.

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1 minute ago, Dino said:

Worried about Amelia Island / Fernandina Beach(my friend lives there and he evacuated thankfully).  Serious surge and flash flooding happening at the moment. 6.5foot storm surge.  

"From NOAA: "Major Flooding is occurring around Amelia Island with the storm tide at Fernandina Beach exceeding Dora in 1964"

IMG_4031.JPG

IMG_4029.JPG

Eye is pushing water straight into Amelia.  I have friends there too and in St. Simon's which is also going to be severely flooded.  Georgia coast is one of the areas most prone to storm surge in the U.S.  The coast is nearly all brackish marshes and low barrier islands.  WJXT just reported flooding of homes in South Jax Beach.  Also one hotel has been flooded by storm surge. 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, sctvman said:

From J_Nubz: "The (Jacksonville Beach) pier is being ripped away as we speak. The end of it is gone." - WJXT

I've been watching a JAX TV today.  That pier was rebuilt in 1999. The waves are absolutely pounding it but it has concrete pilings and they will be able to replace any boards that get washed away.  It is not being ripped apart.

 

Hope you are not in James Island, SC.  You need to go inland if you are.  Good luck in SC tonight.

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Just now, Jaguars said:

In Avondale right off Park.  Have not been down to the river since this morning.  Reporter downtown just showed the water coming over some railings.  You could tell this morning it was all piling up being pushed down from Mayport, problem is th St John's runs north.  So there's nowhere for it to go.  Video of St Mary's Ga looks bad with the storm surge there as well.

Take care. I'm wondering how San Marco is doing. Can't find anything on WJXT - but that place does flood. I'm sorta glad I moved inland to G'ville (except in the summer when there is no sea breeze!).

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6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Whoever shot this video, and whoever was in this room with them is stupid. 

 

Yep. The experts can post all the warnings they want, but when you have idiots like this what can you do.

They are a broken pane of glass away from having their lives being highly at risk.

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Whoever shot this video, and whoever was in this room with them is stupid. 

 


There are rednecks in Florida?? Who knew...lol.

Some men you just can't reach...

-cool hand luke.

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This certainly doesn't look like a bust. Lots of coastal flooding ongoing. Would have been worse 50 miles west, but there is going to be a lot of damage all the way up the coast into the outer banks.

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Very concerned for Savannah GA and Charleston SC, along with all the islands on the coast. Plenty of people decided to not evacuate and stay on those islands...

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We may need a new term, swampfall. 

Matthew looks like making swampfall between Hilton Head and Charleston, although barely, doubt that the seaward portion of the eyewall makes swampfall. 

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1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

This certainly doesn't look like a bust. Lots of coastal flooding ongoing. Would have been worse 50 miles west, but there is going to be a lot of damage all the way up the coast into the outer banks.

Much much worse. This flooding is occurring with a northerly wind and the main thrust of the surge being pushed parallel to or away from shore. If the eye was on land and the eastern eyewall was pushing in the water, it would've been absolutely devastating. Jacksonville's really lucky it's not in a position to often get hurricanes making landfall just south of them. 

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3 minutes ago, Pluffmud said:

God I hope not..

Radar and Ocean heat content not looking that good though so maybe it will just hold it's own.

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8 minutes ago, SP said:

I thought the eye on the radar loop was looking better organized. Wrapped around and tighter.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

i agree.  not sure if it is merely the evolution of the storm or interaction with land, but almost seems like that endless ERC could be completing, with some storms firing around a smaller diameter eye on radar and a little pinhole trying to poke through on IR.  the structure may improve some but i\m not sure there's much to feed off for strengthening.  i think it looks likely to hold a good bit of its current strength all the way to an eventual (possible) landfall around Charleston.

 

we shouldn't be talking about how we dodged a bullet quite yet.  to be sure, much of florida did, but it may just be borrowing from peter to pay paul.  the storm staying offshore has allowed it to maintain impressive strength while expanding its windfield and piling up water...and will now be approaching an area at a more damaging angle for surge and may even make landfall.  this reminds me of Sandy in terms of the intensity it should be near during landfall, piling up water for days ahead of itself in the open water, formerly much stronger but maintaining very high total energy, and now approaching a low lying area at a dangerous angle.  in the end, those affected could be different but i wouldn't be surprised if this wound up pretty bad like we were initially expecting.  at least in dollar terms.

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