SmokeEater

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About SmokeEater

  • Birthday 02/15/1980

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    smokeater342

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    Male
  • Location:
    Folsom, NJ

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  1. Watch out Houston in the next couple hours, watch coming down there also. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  2. Everything starting to spin in AR now, let's see where we go from here. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  3. No one should even be mentioning the word bust with this event at all, at least not any time soon, lol. There has been one warning so far in the whole moderate risk area. A very long way to go. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  4. Usually not good when the MIC of FWD posts this.... Tom Bradshaw @SoonerTom 25s On 95% of the days in N TX, you can ignore the weather and it doesn’t amount to a hill of beans. Tomorrow falls in that “other special 5%” category. The threat will be real, so PAY ATTENTION. Plan ahead, have a way to get warnings, and know what to do if one’s issued for you. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  5. From the FWD afternoon AFD: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CLOSE OFF FRIDAY AND ENTER THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF IT AND RESULT IN THE LIFTING OF A WEAK CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE CAP GONE, DETERMINING WHETHER WE WILL HAVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT REMAINS A HUGE FORECAST CHALLENGE SINCE THERE WILL BE NO LEVEL FOCUS TO HELP "TRIGGER" STORMS. SHOULD VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME WE WILL BE PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT SUPERCELLS AND THE TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN THE HIGH VALUES OF WIND SHEAR IN PLACE AND WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONICALLY CURVING HODOGRAPHS. THE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM IN THESE WEAKLY-FORCED WARM ADVECTION REGIMES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE THE ONES RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR NOTEWORTHY COOL SEASON TORNADO EVENTS (AND SOME WARM SEASON EVENTS TOO). THE SETUP FOR THIS EVENT CERTAINLY CHECKS ALL THE BOXES FOR WHAT WE LOOK FOR IN A COOL SEASON TORNADO OUTBREAK, WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF INSTABILITY BEING JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE BIG EVENTS LIKE DEC 29TH '06 AND DEC 26TH '15 (IF YOU BELIEVE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS). AND SO WHAT KEEPS US FROM SAYING A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS ON THE HORIZON IS THAT THERE ARE COUNTLESS UNNAMED AND FORGOTTEN EVENTS THAT LOOK SIMILAR TO THIS ONE WHICH PRODUCED NO TORNADOES. SO I BELIEVE THE KEY TOMORROW WILL BE THE INSTABILITY - REFLECTED BY THE DEWPOINT READINGS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CAN MAKE IT INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES CAN CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S, THEN IT WILL LIKELY BE A BAD DAY FOR US. UNTIL THEN THE BEST WE CAN SAY IS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SOME OF THESE CELLS MAY START TO DEVELOP. THESE EARLY SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT PROBABLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION IS MORE FAVORED DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGHER MOISTURE. THEY WILL BE VERY FAST MOVING, ROCKETING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH, AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUD COVER, VISUAL SPOTTING AND TRACKING WILL BE DIFFICULT. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  6. If it doesn't involve snow in general, or a tornado in their backyard, they could care less. Has always been that way. That's why events even there usually end up here. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  7. Strong TDS NE of Greensboro, this thing just won't die. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  8. Large TOG near Columbia, MS, west of Hattiesburg. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  9. Alexandria, LA is in very big trouble.... Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  10. Tornado heading for the NW side of Jackson, MS. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  11. Huge debris ball and TDS continues, Jesus... Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  12. More then decent, tons of cgs. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  13. And it followed me, lol. Made it back to the hotel just in time, decent cell. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
  14. Otw to the inner harbor for the night, let's see if I can bring some severe with me, lol. Guaranteed my house in Jersey gets rocked now though. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk