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Hurricane Hermine


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

How would that be possible?

I think we all know it's not. CAT1 again maybe for a day.

I was a 150 miles from landfall and must state was underwhelmed by the event. Coastal communities on either side of my LAT it was a beast. Many tree trunks strewn about. One feeder band and that was it.

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19 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Sounds like the last 3 winter haha. 

Will be interesting to see what days of churning in the Atlantic do for the SSTs.

oh crap!  thanx for reminding me...  my buddy was saying to take the SST anomalies and save the image so we can compare in a weak ...and see how Hermine does nothing else but completely wreck the thermocline and cool the tuck waters down to:

-- no hope for any other cyclone this season

-- completely f up the winter storm tendencies later on... 

ha, j/k.  seriously tho, we were just talking about that same thing this morning... 

 

As to Hermine folks, this thing is currently transitioning toward a hybrid system.  

the obvious?

it looks like a deep winter storm on satellite, replete with comma-head shield and underside entraining CAA...  

That said, the stall over huge oceanic heat content and perculation therein seems to suggest however outrightly so in the models, to regenerate an inner core.  But, that 500mb isoheight layout by 72 hours of being 3 contours deep, over that vast an area, isn't a hurricane - no way! a-typical for warm core systems and shows that at least a goodly amount of the atmospheric physical machinery is baroclinic ...if perhaps simultaneous with a warming core at the very centroid.  

It would surprise me if the core gets completely converted back to warm thermo structure, at which time ... the outer parts 'shed' (see Perfect Storm) ...the wind field may contract and the surrounding weather actually improves in a more typical concentric ring of subsidence.  this may actual improve sky over a lot of coastal areas  ...albeit, fantastic surf show.  

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Just looked at the 12Z Euro.   Makes a closer pass to us but it does not deepen Hermine nearly as much as the 0Z run.  At its closest pass (around 72 hours out)it almost gets to Nantucket as a weakening system of about 1000 mb.  0Z run had it getting down to 978mb off of the Delmarva but this run the lowest pressure is around 988mb.

As far as rainfall goes it has 2-3" Cape and up to 1" out to the 495 belt and extreme SE NH.

Wind maximums are Monday morning.  40-55mph max gusts Cape, Islands and S RI.  30-40mph Boston area

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21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro has consistently been on the NW side of guidance.  Would be some interesting weather at least.

I guess the good thing if you are looking for rain is that even though its been on the NW side its not caving towards the other guidance but even creeping perhaps a bit more NW.  Looks like a weakening system.  I really would like to see meaningful rain for you guys down there without a relentless beach erosion problem.  At least astronomical tides are not high right now.  

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2 hours ago, w1pf said:

This forecast looks very strange.. is anybody actually thinking we'll get Tropical Storm conditions in Hampshire County? B)

 

 

Untitled-5.jpg

 

Ha, save it for posterity but not happening.  My forecast for Greenfield was similar but for all the days it said tropical storm conditions possible the text said "chance of showers with winds 5-10mph."  

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2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Center of circulation of post-Hermine is becoming better defined on visible satellite imagery.

I can't tell if the LLCi  is   becoming better defined or not but one thing is clear.  It has lost all of its deep convection.  For this to become a hurricane again things better start popping near the center.  Looks awful on IR.

Untitled.jpg

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4 hours ago, w1pf said:

This forecast looks very strange.. is anybody actually thinking we'll get Tropical Storm conditions in Hampshire County? B)

funny I have nearly the same on the point and click forecast. I don't know how well this will pan out. 

Also looking at the latest IR loop, really hard to tell where the storm is. What's left of the convection looks to be "running away" from the naked swirl. 

 

Untitled-5.jpg

 
 

 

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