Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[Ginx snewx]

I saved that one for later.

Save the wrf arw and its 33 inches for you

[Ginx snewx]

I live in Easton CT Right above the Merritt - Models are now 4 inches to 22 (From GFS to NAM). In your own opinion, throwing out the Nam, that the GFS/EUR/GGEM can shift another 15 miles north?

How much for Easton?

[Hoth]

I hate seeing the pressure falls map , that's when you know it's over.

[Damage In Tolland]

Look at how the mesos pick up the CTRV ..Amazing

 

 

[dendrite]

Look at how the mesos pick up the CTRV ..Amazing

 

 

Downslope right off ORH hills. Pretty sweet.

[Jenkins]

The warnings I spoke of 20 minutes ago are being hoisted now.

[Damage In Tolland]

Downslope right off ORH hills. Pretty sweet.

Yup they get hosed.

[SouthCoastMA]

Welp, there's the Winter Storm Warning alert on my phone.

The GFS needs to throw us a bone at 18z, otherwise I think low end warning will be a solid bet for the south coasts, as opposed to anything approaching those absurd meso numbers.

[Brian5671]

How much for Easton?

nothing, he's north of the merritt...good thing I'm 1/2 mile south

[Sugarloaf1989]

Damage In Tolland, on 22 Jan 2016 - 3:37 PM, said:

Look at how the mesos pick up the CTRV ..Amazing

 

 

 

One of the main reasons why all the ski areas in the CTRV are either struggling or out of business.

[JC-CT]

Downslope right off ORH hills. Pretty sweet.

 

 

Yup they get hosed.

 

You guys are too much

[Damage In Tolland]

Warnings up for Se areas and WWA up to Mass border

 

3-6 in the advisory and 6-10 in warnings

[CoastalWx]

I live in Easton CT Right above the Merritt - Models are now 4 inches to 22 (From GFS to NAM). In your own opinion, throwing out the Nam, that the GFS/EUR/GGEM can shift another 15 miles north?

 

They certainly could....but could also tick SE too. It will come down to a nowcast deal I think near the CT coastline for sure. I do think they are at risk for a period of S+ as that initial thump moves in. 

[EastonSN+]

They certainly could....but could also tick SE too. It will come down to a nowcast deal I think near the CT coastline for sure. I do think they are at risk for a period of S+ as that initial thump moves in. 

Thanks

[SnowMan]

What's crazy to think about....we were hit by a train of these storms last year...all within a 4 week period

[lakeeffectkid383]

Under a WSW here for 4-8". Just a couple miles to my south a WSW for 6-10". I'll take it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Welp, there's the Winter Storm Warning alert on my phone.

The GFS needs to throw us a bone at 18z, otherwise I think low end warning will be a solid bet for the south coasts, as opposed to anything approaching those absurd meso numbers.

6-10" there would be my call.

[SouthCoastMA]

6-10" there would be my call.

That aligns with BOX's range in the WSW. It all depends on where that band sets up too. Some areas may overachieve, while others will fight to get 6"

[Damage In Tolland]

Based on the mesos honing in ..probably expect the globals to have another good bump north at 18 and 00z

[Typhoon Tip]

This will be a first for me.  I've never seen LGA on the FRH grid near 2.25" in liq equiv (all snow), while BOS manages only a 10th of an inch. 

 

I have seen that attempted in the models on numerous occasions over the years.  Ultimately, at least some percentage of the LGA numbers smeared up into SNE. 

 

In this situation, given to the models absolute unyielding presentation 0 snow in EEN while it's perhaps nearing a foot in CT, ..seems we'll just have to pull the seemingly physically impossible gradient here.  interesting.

 

The upshot for me is that I had plans to go to an AFC party, which this is good because that won't canceled.  Word! 

[CarverWX]

I am right on the line of a WWA 3-6 and WSW 4-8.

[Damage In Tolland]

Early look at RGEM has another tickle north thru 27

[SouthCoastMA]

Early look at RGEM has another tickle north thru 27

I thought it looked real ugly after that, with the dry air eating away at the northern edge.

[Morch Madness]

The dry air depicted on the RGEM is just cruel. That is a really pathetic precip shield.

[BostonWX]

Is that finger of precipitation on most models in boston and south due to the NE fetch moistening at least the lower levels?

[Morch Madness]

Our only hope seems to be if we get some crazy deform band on steroids to bust through the concrete wall and drop a quick high-ratio burst on us

[ORH_wxman]

I thought it looked real ugly after that, with the dry air eating away at the northern edge.

 

 

Yeah that was hideous later in the run...shredded radar is what that would look like with dry air and visions of a Scooter Streak.

[ORH_wxman]

One thing is for sure in this storm...the radar hallucinations are going to be epic. It's going to look amazing for a long time before it craps the bed just short of most of us.

 

I still think the south coast though should get in on some goodies.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Wow.  RGEM stalls the surface low on the western shore of lower Chessy Bay.  Destruction along the Mason Dixon Line.

[SouthCoastMA]

I mean, the RGEM does have us snowing for about 18-20 hours..but I don't think it's going to add up to much with that look.