Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[Colonel Badger]

It's got light precip into SNH. It's north

 

Now you're talking ;-)

[ineedsnow]

One more bump like that at 0z I'll be real happy

[Sn0waddict]

1 inch QPF makes it into SW CT on the GFS,

[JC-CT]

Tick tock

 

It looks to be playing catch up. Not sure exactly what it is, but maybe that scooter shtstreak trending stronger is also letting it dive down and get the heck out of the way faster. I do know that very early in this last set of runs you could tell h5 was oriented more favorably.

[Damage In Tolland]

ULL is stronger which I think AIDS in it further north move .

[ineedsnow]

Fwiw gfs has it forming 100 miles south of that point

Secondary is forming around Myrtle Beach...SHOWTIME

[CT Rain]

Definitely a bump north on the GFS - would be better for places like Hartford and Providence. 

[Whineminster]

Fwiw gfs has it forming 100 miles south of that point

 

I'm reading that as meaning we could see a 100 mile shift in the precip shield     

[HullMA]

GFS is eating dog crap but noone wants to admit it. Just my 2 cents. This is the first run it showed qpf from OES and NAM has hinted at that for multiple runs. I dont expect a blow out. Just calling it as a i see it.

[Damage In Tolland]

It now gets 3-6 almost to Mass border. We expected it would do that. Prob another at 00z

[Bostonseminole]

Fwiw gfs has it forming 100 miles south of that point

 

i thought it was forming around charleston

[BRSno]

What are we thinking for BOS at this point?

Models haven't been kind to us. My guess is 1-3"

[JC-CT]

What in the world are you guys talking about?

[BostonWX]

Pressure fall map ftl

[sankaty]

GFS has QPF jumping from about .3" at 12Z to about .8" at 18Z for northern Middlesex in CT.  RH values at H850 are much more robust.  The gap between the GFS and NAM is much less now for our area.  Both have more than twice the QPF of the 12z Euro/RGEM, though, so who knows.

[78Blizzard]

While it moved the heavier bands north, it didn't advance the lighter bands much further north. 

[JC-CT]

Pressure fall map ftl

 

They do realize that's ahead of the low and not the low itself...

[Ginx snewx]

Brian Dendrite lol

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=CT&stn=KGON&model=nam&time=current&field=omeg

[CoastalWx]

While it moved the heavier bands north, it didn't advance the lighter bands much further north.

That's expected. The heavier bands are the one too watch. Since the heavier band is on the nrn edge, don't expect much north of it.

[MegaMike]

i thought it was forming around charleston

Greatest two hourly pressure drops are around that area. I'm sure the low will scurry nearby Charleston, regardless.

[Ginx snewx]

Improvements north and east, sticking to the program

[forkyfork]

i think the northern edge is going to have a second jackpot that steals some of the spotlight from DC

[Damage In Tolland]

Dews are coming up . Think this may start earlier than some thinking

[HIPPYVALLEY]

On radar you can see the precipitation kind of hitting a wall around Harrisburg PA.

[medmax]

On radar you can see the precipitation kind of hitting a wall around Harrisburg PA.

Is Hippy Valley a reference to PSU?

[JC-CT]

Box upped totals a bit at least down here

[HullMA]

Dews are coming up . Think this may start earlier than some thinking

Everyone throws in the towel 24+ out. Meanwhile last year everyone was saying how we should'nt lock anything in even 24 hrs out.

[MegaMike]

Brian Dendrite lol

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=CT&stn=KGON&model=nam&time=current&field=omeg

 

I've been looking for a time/temperature/height(or pressure)/omega cross section like this for a while. I mentioned in the Mid-Atlantic forum that the dendritic snow growth depth is 13000 feet (KDCA) at 18UTC. It doesn't mean much if you don't have any lift. Now, I can correlate the two. Thanks!

[ORH_wxman]

Everyone throws in the towel 24+ out. Meanwhile last year everyone was saying how we should lock anything in even 24 hrs out.

 

 

I dunno, I think at least several of us have said keep watching in the southern areas.

 

I'm probably toast up here outside of a couple inches of arctic sand...but you never know. However, I've never thought the southern areas were ever truly out of the game.

[MJHUB]

Box Upped Forecast for RI/SEMA brought,  might get a watch or warning in places with the WWA i would think.