CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I can't stop laughing at that pic. Kali Ray!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Completely fizzled the threat when his confidence was soaring...now that he is down and out, there is a slither of hope for a 36-48hr nudge NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You would think right? But more likely that's an artifact of BOX agreeing with WPC on the south coast, while thinking that the northern edge will be farther north than WPC thinks. So there is a larger difference around the CT/MA/RI border versus the south coast. When you add the difference to WPC 90th percentile, you increase totals near the CT/MA/RI border, and don't change them much or at all on the south coast. So it looks like taint, but it's just forecast agreement. This is my problem with these probability maps, because in actuality the greatest threat for higher totals is the south coast, not near ORH. Why do you guys have to agree with WPC? Why aren't you able to totally disagree with them if you feel it's necessary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good googly moogly! DT is super excited and I'm super jealous. I hope they get three feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just when I'm ready to give up because the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, there is the ever so faint hint of life, weak as it may be...It pulls me back in. For what ever reason, I have become way over invested in the dang event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Interesting. So isn't the problem really that they forced their forecast to agree with wpc but only for part of their forecast area? Or reading it again, I'm not even sure I understand. Not even that they were forced into it, but just any agreement with WPC makes it seem like potential snow is lower in those areas. The same goes for the min map. Sometimes you'll see low amounts or zero where you actually expect the highest snow to fall. It seems BOX edited in this case to make it zero everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Why do you guys have to agree with WPC? Why aren't you able to totally disagree with them if you feel it's necessary? It's not that we're forced into it. It's just that BOX and WPC happen to agree on amounts for say S CT. But BOX thinks (or thought) snow will fall farther north than WPC does. So the difference grid at GON is 0, at IJD it might be 3. The way those maps are created are to add the difference grid to the 10th and 90th percentiles generated by WPC's model blend. Basically adjusting their forecast to the local WFO's. So if the WPC 90th percentile was 6 at GON and 4 at IJD, the difference grid leaves GON alone and bumps IJD up to 7. Making it looking like IJD has more potential for snow that reality. It's just bad logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The way those maps are created are to add the difference grid to the 10th and 90th percentiles generated by WPC's model blend. This is the part that doesn't make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is the part that doesn't make sense to me. It's a little deep to get into gory detail, but basically based off their model blend there is a distribution (like a bell curve for instance) based off model spread. We don't have that locally, so we use WPC distribution. Our forecast locally essentially bumps that curve up or down to get the probabilities. But you've identified the problem. It works well for WPC's forecast, but not so much for ours. Either we need to create our own distribution, or just use WPC's snowfall to make this work correctly. I am not a fan of doing the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's a little deep to get into gory detail, but basically based off their model blend there is a distribution (like a bell curve for instance) based off model spread. We don't have that locally, so we use WPC distribution. Our forecast locally essentially bumps that curve up or down to get the probabilities. But you've identified the problem. It works well for WPC's forecast, but not so much for ours. Either we need to create our own distribution, or just use WPC's snowfall to make this work correctly. I am not a fan of doing the latter. Thanks, the way you explained issue is what I thought it was. It's combining apples and oranges and calling it a sandwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's a little deep to get into gory detail, but basically based off their model blend there is a distribution (like a bell curve for instance) based off model spread. We don't have that locally, so we use WPC distribution. Our forecast locally essentially bumps that curve up or down to get the probabilities. But you've identified the problem. It works well for WPC's forecast, but not so much for ours. Either we need to create our own distribution, or just use WPC's snowfall to make this work correctly. I am not a fan of doing the latter. Or just toss the whole thing. Some of these min/max ranges people are tweeting out are absurd. 10th/90th percentiles for Philadelphia is 2" and 20". How is that of any use to the end user? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How can you say Feb 21 to Mar 21 this year has no comparison to last year? The future never predicts the past Nor does the past predict the future. While no guarantee, I'd fell pretty confident saying that last years pattern is not on the horizon for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Or just toss the whole thing. Some of these min/max ranges people are tweeting out are absurd. 10th/90th percentiles for Philadelphia is 2" and 20". How is that of any use to the end user? It's definitely not meant for public consumption right now. It was supposed to be a tool to provide EMs and state level decision makers to convey uncertainty. Unfortunately it's being executed poorly, AND they made us post the link on our homepage so anybody can look at them now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm nervous believe in rpm and wrf and you'll be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ekster just sent this to me... http://www.dennismersereau.com/2016/01/blizzard-2016-frequently-asked.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ekster just sent this to me... http://www.dennismersereau.com/2016/01/blizzard-2016-frequently-asked.html?m=1 I lol'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We've gone through the same routine for three nights now..... Guidance looks marginally better at 00z.... Then is worse the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 New things I have learned Confluence Sh*t streak It's always 4th and long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We've gone through the same routine for three nights now..... Guidance looks marginally better at 00z.... Then is worse the next day Seems better then marginal now however, but it is the nam... See what the big dogs have to say.. Feels like we've been following this for a month I'm beat lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Why is a model this awful still run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Why is a model this awful still run?To keep us sucked in? 24 hrs ago everyone was psyched after the NAM came out. Then I woke up this morning to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Why is a model this awful still run?Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's got its uses during meso situations and severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not gonna ruin my high tonight, I'm going to bed before gfs and euro.....then I'll comedown in the am, when I'm pissy anyway. Goodnight weenies, may the nam be with you all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If you SNEers pull this out of your arse I'm deleting the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I feel like Balboa in Rocky I, after Creed had him down and in big trouble, with Mickey telling him to stay down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If you SNEers pull this out of your arse I'm deleting the subforum. My dream is that this somehow splits the CC Canal and everyone south of Nashua mixes/dry slots. JK lol. Seriously though this has been one of the most fun storms to track here with the ups and downs and drama. Of course it has helped knowing that you're out of the picture for anything right from the get go. If you do have to end up deleting the subforum, create a NNE only subforum, we're much more laid back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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