WNash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NYC forum saw the 12z Euro: 18z model runs will be showing Dim Sun brunch on Saturday morning in Chinatown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Except our 4D assimilation is nothing like the ECMWF. It's more like 3.5 DVAR. We should just be able to use their data in the NWS models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NYC forum saw the 12z Euro: They can join us, as in NNE we are already there (also having missed last year's epic month). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I already jumped off the bridge, can't jump any farther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So we get 100" in a month and not a word from big Louis, but get 2' in the MA and we have press conferences like we just had a terrorist attack...lol. And why did he need to mention about the whole modeling capacity anyways? Someone asked that? It should be on the storm. These thoughts do not represent and all... You remember the storms conference, full court press on how great the GFS is. The irony is that the Euro kind of led the way on a drier northern fringe up here. Still not over yet, but the writing is on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Never thought I would head into February, halfway through the winter, with a season total of about 2". This may end up being the worst season of all time for me. I am sure there will be a couple more good chances at a good storm, but time is ticking. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Anyone have that old Midlo picture with the weather model pageant contestants? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 These thoughts do not represent and all... You remember the storms conference, full court press on how great the GFS is. The irony is that the Euro kind of led the way on a drier northern fringe up here. Still not over yet, but the writing is on the wall. I guess I'm curious why that was mentioned. I didn't hear the conference...I figured it was about the storm, until Diane mentioned what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I guess I'm curious why that was mentioned. I didn't hear the conference...I figured it was about the storm, until Diane mentioned what he said. Propaganda machine starting up? Our new national model blend as of yet doesn't include the ECMWF. That's the latest I've heard anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The passcode to the call was "snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seeing Forky reach deep for snow is kind of fun. He is in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I guess I'm curious why that was mentioned. I didn't hear the conference...I figured it was about the storm, until Diane mentioned what he said. NWS got the finger pointed at them by OPM, states (including the governor of NYS, for which I am totally embarrassed), and localities, right?. I don't blame him for saying they can only work with the tools they're given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think Kev is a super secret storm mode black ops Mod like Ryan once was. Hidden under the cover of weenie he is deleting NYC posts faster than anyone has ever seen. Expect to see a Mod tag after its all done. Imagine his first order of business will be to five post Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NWS got the finger pointed at them by OMB, states (including the governor of NYS, for which I am totally embarrassed), and localities, right?. I don't blame him for saying they can only work with the tools they're given. But why? Nothing has verified. What were they complaining about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think Kev is a super secret storm mode black ops Mod like Ryan once was. Hidden under the cover of weenie he is deleting NYC posts faster than anyone has ever seen. Expect to see a Mod tag after its all done. Imagine his first order of business will be to five post Scooter. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ??joke, check MA thread, storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 But why? Nothing has verified. What were they complaining about? Maybe some GFS Napoleon complex? Lashing out about verification scores out of habit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Maybe some GFS Napoleon complex? Lashing out about verification scores out of habit?GFS sniffed this out, Euro had a low in Cuba then way over corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 But why? Nothing has verified. What were they complaining about? Here it was the Nov 14 LES event, which was well modeled. NWS went low on amounts but came very close to nailing where bands would set up, and gave adequate warning. Thruway shutdowns were slow to happen, and Cuomo wanted a dog to kick, so he went after KBUF and NWS in general. The only good thing that came out of it was state mesonet money. Feds changed their telecommuting work rules after some shutdowns for warnings that didn't verify. NWS got heat for it if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS sniffed this out, Euro had a low in Cuba then way over corrected At day 9? That's all well and good, but give something useful. My forecast range doesn't even start until day 7. Since we've gotten into that window, I think the Euro has been more consistently showing it being fringe effects around these parts. Now that could all go to hell in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seriously think blocking returns and we are not done with winter. Volatility and craziness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At day 9? That's all well and good, but give something useful. My forecast range doesn't even start until day 7. Since we've gotten into that window, I think the Euro has been more consistently showing it being fringe effects around these parts. Now that could all go to hell in the next 24 hours. hmm see Don S chart in model thread for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seriously think blocking returns and we are not done with winter. Volatility and craziness Are we still a month behind? Because 30 days from now climo is a b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seeing Forky reach deep for snow is kind of fun. He is in a good spot Can we call him "Sunshine" from now on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Are we still a month behind? Because 30 days from now climo is a b**ch.Yes how did your climo make out Feb 21 to March 21 last year. I also said by April 1 we catch up but telling part of the story is how it rolls in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So it looks like all of SNE heads into Feb with single digits snowfall totals. Even I could never have envisioned that with my rat forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Imagine his first order of business will be to fifty post Scooter. Oh no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yes how did your climo make out Feb 21 to March 21 last year. I also said by April 1 we catch up but telling part of the story is how it rolls in here This year has no comparison to last and I don't have records of all my snowfall in that period. I'm still thinking slightly below normal snowfall here as I have since November, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I guess I'm curious why that was mentioned. I didn't hear the conference...I figured it was about the storm, until Diane mentioned what he said. I wish I could have seen the entire thing...TWC kept bouncing back and forth between the press conference and their "forecast center" but Dr. Ucellini provided the info I mentioned before the Q&A...so it wasn't a question that prompted a response, it was already built into his spiel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wouldn't be a true storm without at least one 18z happy hour run going bonkers. Fun to look at and just further perpetuates the NAM's reputation. Unless..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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