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WNash

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About WNash

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    Buffalo, NY

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  1. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    A warmer is better than a cooler lake, but the lake cools down so quickly in the fall that it would take a very rare early cold snap or a very warm late fall for it to make any difference in LES.
  2. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Above normal temps are fine but far above normal temps + humidity makes being outdoors unbearable. The payoff for long, cold winters here are those beautiful summers, when you can spend half your day outside. This week has been ok (though today’s elevated ozone kept us indoors because my daughter has respiratory issues). But I’d just as soon not ever repeat last week. And this drought is murder on our lawn and our vegetable garden. I’m perfectly content with WNY weather without significant temp or precipitation extremes.
  3. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    That’s awesome! My friends are camping in eastern Iceland now. They say it’s actually sunny and nice there, instead of wet and chilly like in Reykjavik.
  4. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Some friends have been there the last couple weeks (they left at the beginning of the heat wave and were bragging about it. Apparently it has been cooler than normal but not exactly cold. The real notable feature has been persistent rain - apparently it has been raining every day since early May. Even the locals, who don’t get too worked up about bad weather, are totally sick of it. https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2018/june2018/201806_map.png
  5. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    The line of storms associated with the front is collapsing as it approaches Buffalo. Looks good in Niagara County to the north and along the lake shore to the south, but the lake is killing convection in and around the city. Very frustrating, as this was the only good chance of rain for the foreseeable future. Our garden is parched and our lawn is going yellow.
  6. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    We got under a developing pop up shower that went from Kenmore and Amherst towards downtown. Torrents of rain for about a half hour, now sunny with jungle humidity.
  7. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    That’s a bonkers HI. I lived in Nashville when they set their all time record for temp, 109F. But even with the 57F dewpoint, the heat index only got to 110F, and it was unbearable even though there was a bit of perceived cooling from evaporation. At the dews we have seen this weekend, you get soaked with sweat within minutes.
  8. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    KBUF got up to 91 on the hourly obs. IAG and ROC at 94 seem to be the max for the region. Dews made it up to the low 70s. It was sultry and felt awful to be outside for more than five minutes, but a bit short of the extremes that were suggested in the last few days.
  9. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I lived in Nashville, where the average high for months during the summer is close to what’s forecast for Buffalo next week. If a 10-20 year extreme here is only slightly worse then an average summer day in the southeast, I’ll take this every time.
  10. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    While there is model support for El Nino, it's too early to determine whether it would be Modoki or an eastern Pacific anomaly: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-2018-enso-update-el-niño-watch
  11. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    My wife swears that she saw snowflakes in early June back in the late 80s or early 90s at her aunt's house outside Springville (about 1800').
  12. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Yeah, I was just thinking about that. The equinox was exactly 28 days ago (almost to the minute of your post, actually). So the sun angle today almost exactly matches August 25, which averages 77F/60F, and with lots of sunlight minutes, I'm sure.
  13. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    The Niagara Frontier has great weather, folks. Four or five months of sweltering humidity, heat waves above 100F? That's life in much of the eastern US. Tornadoes are a fascinating weather phenomenon, but being from the upper south, I've been though the two worst tornado outbreaks of the last five decades, 1974 (as a child) and 2011, and I'm so happy to live nowhere near tornado country anymore. We don't get upper Midwest deep freeze air. We know how to take care of snow when it falls, and pretty much everyone knows how to drive in winter weather. The sunny, warm (but not scorching or steamy) summers here are a dream elsewhere - in the southeast, most people barely spend any daylight time outdoors between June and September because it's that brutal. Running and biking and golfing are done as early in the day as possible. The only kind of crappy time of the year here is the spring mud season, but that's maybe a month or two of on and off slop, after which we get that late May warm-up. There are some great western climates, but Buffalo has great weather, as long as you can enjoy snow.
  14. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Seems like this snowfall will get Buffalo 1.5 ft above normal for the year. A bit short on big storms, but we have gotten there a bit at a time.
  15. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Yeah you’re right on the second half of the event. The first half (until midnight or so) had decent precip at times but a ton of sleet contamination. Either way, typical forecast quandaries, not seasonal factors. I can’t blame the mets too much for playing this up because the consequences of a severe ice storm are so dramatic, and at least one (Santos at WIVB) was putting out a range of possibilities with percentages. But the hyping here was at times at a weenie proportion. ICWs are rare and it is an amazing if scary phenomenon, but hyping model output as the nowcast is clearly going in the other direction was silly.
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