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About WNash

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    Buffalo, NY

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  1. 5 miles due west from the KBUF ASOS. My long time neighbors tell me that Nov 2000 and Oct 2006 were the kind of storms that hit this area the hardest. Storms that veer up to a downtown to airport to Clarence Center heading don’t hit us very hard. I’m told that we used to get storms like that every 5 years or so, but we haven’t had an epic storm since the October storm.
  2. I think only one of the two 20” storms hit the Northtowns hard. Those two weeks were probably as good as the Northtowns have seen in almost 15 years, but it’s a different order of magnitude from the crippling LES storms of legend. Unfortunately the return interval on massive events in the Northtowns is on the scale of decades, instead of the several year interval in the near Southtowns. We probably can’t expect much better than a 20” storm every five years or so.
  3. KBUF is running way above normal on rainfall this month, but at least at my house, almost all the precipitation has come in three brief but extremely heavy downpours. Our garden and lawn actually looks pretty well baked because most of the water turned into run off and didn't soak the soil.
  4. This really gives you a feel for the orography of western Montana. Looks like a foot for Butte, a half foot for Missoula, and 0.0 for the residents of the Flathead Valley/Kalispell. Not a great weekend to plan a drive on the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier.
  5. The really impressive winter storm looks limited to the northern Rocky Mountain Front, and the 2 foot + amounts will be driven by orographic lift, but I imagine the livestock loss and power outages will be severe. Fortunately, most of the relatively populated locations won't be getting the worst of it.
  6. Joe, like a lot of public figures, has decided to be a publicity hound and hustler, rather than a scientist. I get that the reality of climate change is an extremely difficult thing to confront. Some people have made a lot of money off of hydrocarbon fuels, and that money has bought them a lot of power. Unfortunately, the negative externalities of their line of business affect a lot of people who have a lot less money and a lot less power, but who are told that they should be more scared of technological changes than climate change. If technological change is done right, the costs will be borne by the people who have made the most money -- and that isn't the "west" but the wealth hoarders who would sacrifice the lives and well-being of lesser people as long as they can continue to profit. I'm a middle aged, middle class guy, but I have a daughter who is two years old. I'll gladly make sacrifices now if it ensures that my daughter will live her life in a world with a climate that somewhat resembles the one in which my parents grew up and where I grew up. Thinking in a time frame longer than my own life has changed my outlook 180 degrees.
  7. GFS has kept all of WNY above normal temps and very little precipitation all the way through Oct 4. End of September/ beginning of October shows downsloping sending the Niagara Frontier well into the 80s. Lake Erie is running +2 above average but by October 4 may be at a record temp for the date, so this year may be another data point to test the claim that a warm autumn results in more lake snow.
  8. I live on a street lined with mature, healthy maples (mostly sycamore and Norway), and every one of them has had at least some color for about a week.
  9. What an incredible trip. I have a friend who grew up in Cusco, that part of the world sounds like an amazing place.
  10. How embarrassing for you to contort logic and language into an attempt to justify actions that are both authoritarian and unhinged. What hilarious is that you frame anticipated objections to your utter nonsense as an issue of “popularity,” as if you’re a brave truth teller instead of a coward who is willing to bend reality to the fantasies of a very powerful and very unstable man.
  11. Sorry about your brain worms, get well soon
  12. If someone posted a map like that on this website, they would get a weenie tag
  13. There are a lot of weather hobbyists, and the hobby takes many forms, but some forms seem weird to me. Interest in chaser personalities is not my thing, but he has really cultivated an image and brand. I'm a little grossed out by referring to cyclones as "sexy" and "hawt" but clearly I'm not his audience. That said, you make a great point about how legitimately terrifying some hurricane videos are. Being trapped in an attic as the storm surge rises seems like a particularly awful way to spend your last few minutes on earth. But I was already convinced by the famous Katrina warning issued by the WFO in New Orleans that I would not want to be anywhere near a major hurricane.
  14. He's a videographer, not a livestream chaser, so it's a little ridiculous to see all these prayers for him on Twitter. Getting online wouldn't be his first priority. To his credit, he hasn't tried to finagle a quick trip out of devastated areas in the past, when authorities are left counting the numbers of the living and seeing if civilization can ever be restored. Besides, he is enough of a showman to appreciate the drama of his re-emergence after a couple of days incommunicado.
  15. No rain gauge, but I wouldn't be surprised at 2.5" or so in NE Buffalo. It was a Gulf Coast style torrent.