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WNash

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About WNash

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    Buffalo, NY

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  1. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    It got up to 84F with a dew point of 67F here. Humid enough that that my shirt was dripping from sweat after twenty minutes of light yard work! No sign of rain at all — a cooling shower before sunset would be nice.
  2. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Yeah, we had a beautiful Sunday, and it’s nice today. But it looks a bit greyer later this week. Fingers crossed that we get the usual arrival of consistently warmer, sunnier weather around the 20th or so.
  3. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    We don't seem to have truly warm weather for more than short stretches until the third week in May. And even then we get cool snaps until well into June. The lake makes seasons lag and shortens transitions. I don't feel like we really have genuine summer weather until around the solstice. That said, summer temps and sunshine have persisted through September in recent years, which has its pluses and minuses. I actually like the beginning of lake effect season, with the nighttime thunder and the waterspouts, but the recent run of hot early autumns have taken that away, and we just get more blue skies with little precipitation in September and October. I think that this might actually hurt early lake snow chances, because Lake Erie goes through very gradual cooldown as daily means temps decrease that lowers delta T's. We have a short window for epic lake effect snow off Lake Erie, so all the variables need to line up perfectly for us to have a huge early snow season.
  4. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    This is some Eeyore stuff right here. Temp averages may start getting "colder" in three months, but it'll be over six months before average temps approach yesterday's actual temps. And if we're going to use "colder" for relative decline of mean temps, it has been getting "hotter" for three months now. Spring arrives slow as molasses here even in an average year, mostly because of a huge reservoir of cool water upwind of WNY and the North Country. That same reservoir gives us relatively bountiful snow, which most of us here appreciate. And having spent most of my life in the southeast, where July and August (and often June and September) are so sultry that spending any length of time outside is physically exhausting as your body can literally not cool efficiently, I'll gladly take the incredible summers in the lee of the lakes in exchange for the garbage early to mid spring we have. Does anywhere have perfect weather? Maybe places within a few miles of the Pacific Ocean around the 33rd parallel, where temps and humidity never reach a subtropical extreme. But even in San Diego, people miss having seasons. I personally like the weather in Northern California but I know people who hate to spend the summer wearing sweaters, then have to put on shorts in October for a few weeks. Mediterranean climate zones are pretty great but it can really bake in that sun, and most places with that climate have an ugly rainy season. I'll take our grey, muddy, chilly spring if I can also have our winters and summers.
  5. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Yeah I think we might reach the 3” threshold that KBUF has as the 10% likelihood max
  6. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Yeah some nice returns headed this way. We have about 1/2” on grass and elevated surfaces, but nothing is sticking to the roads.
  7. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    That was a nice band that set up for a while around 3AM. We had a half inch of pure fluff fall while the band was still consolidating towards the near southtowns. We have had about five inches total. When we were forecasted to get several inches, we got less than an inch, but when we were forecasted for a dusting, we got a couple inches. In defense of the Buffalo WFO's forecasts for the Buffalo metro, I don't think they have good modeling or data for a mostly frozen lake with shifting patches of open water. But that doesn't account for their weird snowfall forecasts for Rochester or the broad brushing SE of Lake Ontario.
  8. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    It looked to me that mixing was a big risk for NYC and the WSW was a bold call. Looks like NE didn’t get the p type issues.
  9. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    What the hell are WSW criteria for Upton? 4-8" tainted by sleet in NYC but there are warning headlines. That might not even get an advisory in WNY/North Country.
  10. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    This sounds awesome but I'm genuinely afraid of downed trees and powerlines here. A neighbor just lost about 10% of his shingles, a large branch came down in another neighbor's backyard. Our house is shaking in the strongest gusts. I've been hearing emergency vehicles every 5-10 minutes!
  11. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Flagstaff gets a lot of snow, but they have snowpack loss way worse than we get in WNY.
  12. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    That move is awesome. Full of very dated cultural references, the science is pretty dubious and the climactic scene in the barn is just ridiculous, but it is a blast and I'll watch it any time it's on.
  13. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I can see why professionals would want to experience weather that extreme. Understanding that the stakes are so high probably keeps good mets very, very focused.
  14. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I would love to go to northern Honshu. They have perfect OES parameters, with prevailing NW flow over a mile deep sea constantly warmed by a current from the south, and orography that has a rise of 1500 meters over 15 miles. Look at this - Google street view from May 2013 showing a dense snowpack of three feet or so, after months of melt. It looks like a glacier.
  15. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    It's not for everybody, and definitely not for me, but I respect the honesty. I get more annoyed when thrillseekers pretend that they're doing storm chasing for science or whatever. In some cases, the videos can be useful for storm analysis. Morgerman spends big for travel and for equipment. Undoubtedly he gathers data that can't be obtained elsewhere and there is no way that selling his videos comes close to making that money back - he reminds me a bit of Richard Dreyfuss' character Hooper in Jaws, who owns his own damn scientific research vessel because he has $$$. But fundamentally people are doing it for the thrills, and it takes a lot of ego to say otherwise (and Morgerman, who without met training claims to "reanalyze" historic storms, always to lower them below the level of storms he has personally experienced, does not lack for ego).
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