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WNash

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Everything posted by WNash

  1. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Pretty good downpour here with a bit of thunder. Great to hear rain on my roof again!
  2. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    A few areas of heavy rain got shredded just as they approached the metro this evening, but finally a shower formed just southwest of Buffalo and didn’t fall apart before it got here. We had a brief downpour with almost a half inch of rain falling in 30 mins or so. That’s the most precip from a storm at my house since the first part of June.
  3. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Absolutely miserable outside. My daughter has respiratory issues and she looked like she was suffocating when we were out earlier. I can’t wait until this pattern breaks. Fall can’t come soon enough.
  4. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Sustained heat incoming. I think we have a decent chance to break the all-time Lake Erie water temp record of 80 at Buffalo somewhere between the 16th and 18th.
  5. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    No, everything hooked east and weakened, so not a drop until you cross Transit. Really firing off in that confluence in Niagara County, though, so that should help with their drought issues.
  6. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    We like to garden, and this has been a terrible gardening season. Coming from the south, I find hot/humid weather unbearable. I love seasonal weather here. The climo mean of 80/62 with 60 degree dews is perfect, but we averaged quite a bit warmer and more humid than that in July, and the five or six BN temp days were barely under the climo means while the hot days were way above. August is looking much the same through mid-month, and a pattern change after mid-August still isn't showing up. Those first crisp days are going to feel great, but I'm feeling skeptical that they'll be here until it's well after Labor Day. This pattern is totally dug in.
  7. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Here's yet another instance of how the bone dry conditions in the Buffalo metro are the result of bad luck compounding a bad, stagnant pattern and summer lake climatology. This summer is wearing me out. No rain but too humid and warm most days to enjoy spending time outside. Can't wait to get done with this crappy season.
  8. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    No improvement at all on the Niagara Frontier, although drought conditions improved since last week east of Rochester.
  9. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Yeah, that was really bad, a dry winter and spring and then about half the summer precip in 2018. We've been using a sprinkler most days but with a baby and both of us working we can't run it as often or for as long as our lawn and garden really need. Our yard has an irregular shape so we would have to move it several times. We're mainly concentrating on the part of the garden with the tomatoes and peppers, and the fruit trees that went in last year. The flowers in our garden are pretty much a lost cause, and the grass is crunchy and yellow. I'm just gonna have to suck it up and aerate and seed the lawn again in the fall.
  10. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    The lake shadow is real and is most of the reason why July and August precip averages are significantly below May/June and September averages. But we’re way below those monthly averages, which shows that we are unlucky and also in an unfavorable pattern. Last week’s misses were poor luck, as much as rain shadow. That day where everything trained over the lake from south to north wasn’t a lake shadow issue, and neither were the misses at night. It’s frustrating because we put a lot of work into our garden this year, and I aerated and seeded the lawn last fall. Even daily watering isn’t saving my yard, and our garden is really puny.
  11. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Shower moving south to north died as it approached the city, and a new storm popped up in the far northtowns, heading into Niagara County. Despite a pattern for six or seven days that looked like a droughtbuster, we received about 0.25 inch for the entire period, and this week is starting where last week left off. My yard is just a brown, baked prairie at this point. Our garden is barely hanging on despite diligent watering.
  12. Houses sinking into the earth, mangroves along the south shore, gators in every backyard, babies born with webbed feet and hands
  13. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    The videos of the chop are incredible. How sad.
  14. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    That should be a pretty good droughtbuster for most of the areas that are currently in moderate drought. It looks like the Niagara Frontier will be squeezed by both lows without being in on the precip, but I'm hoping we have enough medium odds chances during the week that we'll get 1-1.5 inches of rain.
  15. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Drought update.
  16. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Much of WNY is in a moderate drought now, so it's not just an issue of lake influence. The stacked low over the upper Midwest has drought-buster written all over it, but it won't make any progress against this persistent ridge. Part of it is bad luck, and part of it is just a stubborn pattern, but we are consistently getting summers that are more dry than normal over the past few years.
  17. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I mean, just look at this
  18. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    If I remember, we have had BN precip in the Buffalo metro for a good part of the last few summers. I think we got out of the dry stretch last year with a NW flow event in late July, and there was a stalled warm front that broke an actual moderate drought two or three years ago. I love Buffalo summers, but the precip deficit is making the vegetation look brown and baked.
  19. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Unbelievable. I wonder if the persistence of the lake shadow, despite warm lake temps, is the result of the significantly above average summer temps? Hot upper 80s F on land and a 75F lake supports lake breezes more than a 75F lake and a climatologically average 80F on land, and it's months too early to have delta Ts that promote convection off the lake.
  20. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Definitely pretty ugly from Buffalo metro to the north.
  21. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Buffalo ended up with a trace yesterday, and probably today will go down with a T as well. We’ll probably be in the lowest drought category in Thursday’s update. No good bets for significant rain through Sunday.
  22. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    It barely has rained in the Metro. The lake is still killing convection. Outside the lake shadow, storms are popping, but not in the lee of the lake. It has been just unbelievably dry in most of the Metro. Less than an inch of rain at my house since late May, and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. Today was the best chance all month and we have just had a quick sprinkle. At least I haven’t needed to mow.
  23. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    A warmer is better than a cooler lake, but the lake cools down so quickly in the fall that it would take a very rare early cold snap or a very warm late fall for it to make any difference in LES.
  24. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Above normal temps are fine but far above normal temps + humidity makes being outdoors unbearable. The payoff for long, cold winters here are those beautiful summers, when you can spend half your day outside. This week has been ok (though today’s elevated ozone kept us indoors because my daughter has respiratory issues). But I’d just as soon not ever repeat last week. And this drought is murder on our lawn and our vegetable garden. I’m perfectly content with WNY weather without significant temp or precipitation extremes.
  25. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    That’s awesome! My friends are camping in eastern Iceland now. They say it’s actually sunny and nice there, instead of wet and chilly like in Reykjavik.
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