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WNash

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Everything posted by WNash

  1. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Wait, so you’re saying that there is literally no possible evidence that would convince you that a global scale increase in temperature is real? I can say that there are plenty of things that would convince me it isn’t real. A decrease in mean global temperature, for instance. I’m not looking for a debate, but for understanding. Is “hoax” your bottom line because there is no possible evidence that could convince you otherwise?
  2. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    To be clear, the actual rate of temperature increase is not an issue of opinion. But out of curiosity, what evidence would you require to be persuaded of the reality of a dramatic global temperature increase of a magnitude not seen at least in over 100,000 years. There’s evidence for it, but clearly it’s not good enough for you. What evidence would be good enough?
  3. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Except global temps are rising, without any uncertainty. Do you mean he doesn’t believe in anthropogenic global warming?
  4. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Graupel at UB North.
  5. WNash

    Major Hurricane Michael

    That's exactly correct
  6. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    It feels great outside today. Finally some autumn weather. Our maples are starting to get some color. Last night’s squall line involved no lightning and a three minute downpour, but hopefully a pattern change and lake influence will bring us more precip. Lake Erie temps are warm, so fingers crossed we can get some good convection for the next few weeks.
  7. WNash

    September Models and Pattern: The March to Fall

    The GFS in that range has been going between BN and AN with stops in between for the last dozen runs. Let’s get this tropical system through before we start saying that one run is determinative.
  8. WNash

    September Models and Pattern: The March to Fall

    That day is coming soon, when the same pattern that brings back warmth and dews also blocks Florence from a NE landfall. No hurricane of yore.
  9. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Erie heats up and cools down really fast. I have given up on thinking that hot summer/early fall would have a big impact on snow a couple months later. Our best case scenario for lake influence is for extreme warmth through October then a pattern change to cold shots in mid November (after the leaves have fallen).
  10. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Looks like a more extended cooldown (4-5 days instead of 2-3), and when the ridge reasserts itself, it'll be subject to climatological factors. +10F in mid-September barely gets you to 80F in Buffalo. I'd love to get this ridge out of here. I'm telling myself that the models haven't fully recognized the effect of tropical systems in the western Atlantic, and by the 17th or 18th we'll enter real autumn weather.
  11. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    May was the biggest torch at +8.1. Feb was +5.6 though.
  12. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    December and April were very cold, relative to normal. It's funny, we have had six BN months and six AN months, but the AN departures are significantly higher than the BN departures, so the last year has been way above normal.
  13. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I feel like it's gonna take something major to disrupt this pattern. Maybe a significant tropical system will finally get this ridge to budge.
  14. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    This forum is gonna get a lot of visitors in the winter, thanks to our very well situated members!
  15. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I've lived all over the place, and I love it here. People are way more friendly in a real way than in the south. The "city of good neighbors" slogan is the truth. Schools are way better here than most places I've lived. We pay more in taxes here than in the south, but less than you would think - I lived in a place with a 9.25% sales tax on EVERYTHING, including food, medicine, etc., and it adds up fast. And as someone whose surviving parent is facing health challenges, I can tell you that the elderly support services here are great. Much of NYS (like a lot of other places) has taken a lot of hits from the way the economy has been restructured to favor low wage services, and the playing field has been tilted hugely against working people. Economic opportunity is better here than it used to be, but it's not nearly as good as many other places. But the quality of life here is extremely good.
  16. Lol, he’ll be suffering through low dews and sunny warm autumn days in a COC tober of yore
  17. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I spent college summers on a drywall crew, and growing up in the southeast, we learned that humid days were the worst. Your body just can't cool down - you sweat and sweat, and hardly anything evaporates. One of my favorite things about typical Buffalo summers is that a spell of extreme humidity is typically short, with several high dewpoint periods during the summer interspersed with shots of more dry air from the north. Honestly, one of the most appealing things about summers in Buffalo is that it's so pleasant to spend time outside. Home gardens are far more well-tended, and far more attractive, in Buffalo than in southeastern cities, where people just pay $15 or so every week for a guy with a zero turn to come in and cut every blade of grass to a stub. But this summer in Buffalo has been much more like Gulf weather, and between the low precip and the extreme humidity, gardens around here are looking pretty shabby this summer. I get it - I'm glad I work inside nowadays, but between the relentless dews in the upper 60s or above make it unpleasant to be outside for long, even to work at a hobby like gardening.
  18. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Dews here are still low 70s. Very sultry evening, reminds me of when Gulf air floods the southeast in July and August. So glad for central air. Finally starting to see signs of a pattern change at 240 on the GFS. Fingers crossed that this relentless, brutal summer is finally finished off in the second week of September.
  19. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    We had 2”, which left us only about 2-3” down for the season. A little late for our vegetable garden, but it really helped out our saplings and perennials. It was super annoying to watch the storm line split as it rolled in off Erie. We got some wind, but didn’t even hear thunder from a distance.
  20. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Brutal. Can’t get done with this summer fast enough.
  21. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Pretty good downpour here with a bit of thunder. Great to hear rain on my roof again!
  22. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    A few areas of heavy rain got shredded just as they approached the metro this evening, but finally a shower formed just southwest of Buffalo and didn’t fall apart before it got here. We had a brief downpour with almost a half inch of rain falling in 30 mins or so. That’s the most precip from a storm at my house since the first part of June.
  23. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Absolutely miserable outside. My daughter has respiratory issues and she looked like she was suffocating when we were out earlier. I can’t wait until this pattern breaks. Fall can’t come soon enough.
  24. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Sustained heat incoming. I think we have a decent chance to break the all-time Lake Erie water temp record of 80 at Buffalo somewhere between the 16th and 18th.
  25. WNash

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    No, everything hooked east and weakened, so not a drop until you cross Transit. Really firing off in that confluence in Niagara County, though, so that should help with their drought issues.
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