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WNash

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Everything posted by WNash

  1. Upstate/Eastern New York

    My wife swears that she saw snowflakes in early June back in the late 80s or early 90s at her aunt's house outside Springville (about 1800').
  2. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Yeah, I was just thinking about that. The equinox was exactly 28 days ago (almost to the minute of your post, actually). So the sun angle today almost exactly matches August 25, which averages 77F/60F, and with lots of sunlight minutes, I'm sure.
  3. Upstate/Eastern New York

    The Niagara Frontier has great weather, folks. Four or five months of sweltering humidity, heat waves above 100F? That's life in much of the eastern US. Tornadoes are a fascinating weather phenomenon, but being from the upper south, I've been though the two worst tornado outbreaks of the last five decades, 1974 (as a child) and 2011, and I'm so happy to live nowhere near tornado country anymore. We don't get upper Midwest deep freeze air. We know how to take care of snow when it falls, and pretty much everyone knows how to drive in winter weather. The sunny, warm (but not scorching or steamy) summers here are a dream elsewhere - in the southeast, most people barely spend any daylight time outdoors between June and September because it's that brutal. Running and biking and golfing are done as early in the day as possible. The only kind of crappy time of the year here is the spring mud season, but that's maybe a month or two of on and off slop, after which we get that late May warm-up. There are some great western climates, but Buffalo has great weather, as long as you can enjoy snow.
  4. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Seems like this snowfall will get Buffalo 1.5 ft above normal for the year. A bit short on big storms, but we have gotten there a bit at a time.
  5. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Yeah you’re right on the second half of the event. The first half (until midnight or so) had decent precip at times but a ton of sleet contamination. Either way, typical forecast quandaries, not seasonal factors. I can’t blame the mets too much for playing this up because the consequences of a severe ice storm are so dramatic, and at least one (Santos at WIVB) was putting out a range of possibilities with percentages. But the hyping here was at times at a weenie proportion. ICWs are rare and it is an amazing if scary phenomenon, but hyping model output as the nowcast is clearly going in the other direction was silly.
  6. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Well, it sounds like the mets who underplayed this were right, but for the wrong reason. Rather than the issue being April climatology juju, the mitigating factor was the much more mundane reason why it’s so hard to get ice storms at any time: because the cold air was deeper than progged. It would be nice if our poster who acts as a hype man for verbatim model output when it suits him would stick around for a little analysis of lessons learned, but that never happens.
  7. Upstate/Eastern New York

    National Grid showing a couple thousand outages south of the city (Lackawanna, West Seneca). No precip at all up here, and no power issues from our ZR/pinger mix earlier. Our little baby is hooked up to her O2 concentrator and monitor and sleeping soundly (of course I’m up worrying).
  8. Upstate/Eastern New York

    NYSEG shows about 10000 customers without power in Cheektowaga, Depew, Lancaster, and West Seneca. National Grid has negligible outages so far.
  9. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Mostly ZR but a lot of pingers mixing in
  10. Upstate/Eastern New York

    They may have been right to slow walk the headlines when those of us in the peanut gallery were howling about model runs showing the apocalypse. Playing up higher chances of more ZR this afternoon when there was still ambiguity was where they seem to have gone wrong. This is such an anomalous event that it’s no surprise that forecasters have made a mess of this one.
  11. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Very light freezing rain, almost mist.
  12. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Minimal customers affected in National Grid territory. Fewer than five in the city of Buffalo, which is basically the kind of very low level interruptions that happen in any weather.
  13. Upstate/Eastern New York

    It didn’t feel wet, but it’s also melting on the sidewalk and street.
  14. Upstate/Eastern New York

    We’re all sleet in NE Buffalo. Light to moderate.
  15. Upstate/Eastern New York

    KBUF ought to be communicating risk a little better, but I don’t have a problem with them avoiding ISW headlines when the chances of a very serious event are not all that high.
  16. Upstate/Eastern New York

    We just got home from the hospital and there’s only so much we can do. But can go to southtowns inlaws in a crisis.
  17. Upstate/Eastern New York

    We have a baby on home oxygen and a heart/respiratory monitor so no thanks.
  18. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Ended up with about 2” in NE Buffalo, but as soon as the snow stopped falling, the melt began.
  19. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Beautiful. What kind of acreage?
  20. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Bertrand Chaffee Hospital is a full service medical center in Springfield! About 1400 feet above sea level, and within about five miles there are 2000 ft hilltops, plenty rural and woodsy.
  21. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Oh ok - I was looking at a lightning map earlier and it was firing off near Atlantic City where it was definitely rain.
  22. Upstate/Eastern New York

    That band that has been moving through Western NY during the morning really crapped out fast. By the time it passes through Buffalo in the next half hour, it isn't likely to be more than a short period of wind gusts. I don't have my hopes up for much, but even that minor burst of snow seems to have been too much to hope for.
  23. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Nice convection, but I always feel like thunder during frozen p-type that isn't snow is a bit of a cheat, because graupel, sleet, and hail just generate so much more frictional charge than dendrites. I mean, you have to have pretty intense convection for actual thundersnow in a synoptic storm, which is awesome and rare. LES thundersnow is cool, but I remember hearing thundersnow when I lived in Boston during the March 1993 coastal blizzard, and that made a huge impression on me. I think we can all agree that people who freak out about thunder during graupel or sleet events are rank amateurs.
  24. Upstate/Eastern New York

    NWS in Buffalo is very averse to blizzard warnings anywhere in its zones. But then again, nearly every location in WNY would verify a blizzard at least once a season and probably many more times than that for most. On the other extreme, BOX hands out blizzard warnings like the pope hands out wafers. I’ll take the actual blizzard conditions without the headline over fake news blizzards.
  25. Upstate/Eastern New York

    Thunder snow up here in NE Buffalo!
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