Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lol with all the Google technology US govt cant make a model output with cities towns on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Trying to add credence to the NAM? A busted clock has the right time twice a day. If it does come to verify must have been the SST's of the Gulf Stream. Getting to the point of which model is less wrong I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The dryslot was wicked but i benefited from the coastal front, not as much as bos or bob however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Andy that however changed my QPF.from .3 to 1.4 but its all irrelevant. Huge jump from 18z I still think the dry air aloft over NY/SNE will "steal" a lot of the QPF being forecast..I could envision virga for 6-8 hours these areas on late Friday - early Saturday...not too excited for a Northern surprise or snow bomb...GFS has been very consistent along with other global models. Now if the 12z runs (or even the 6z run of the GFS) ticks north thanks to all the additional U/A data I may start to get excited a wee bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Your 1.333km NAM for the Mid Atlantic...36hrs. image.gif they get a lot more precip to almost 49 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I still think the dry air aloft of NY/SNE will "steal" a lot of the QPF being forecast..I could envison virga for 608 hours these areas on late Friday - Saturday...not to excited for a Northern surprise or snow bomb...GFS has been very consistent along with other global models. Now if the 12z runs (or even the 6z run of the GFS) ticks north thanks to all the additional U/A data I may start to get excited. absolutely, I think the virga might be overstated in near oceanic counties though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Tuck in jan 12th 2011. Gfs euro way too far east. One of my all-time faves. 27" in that bad boy. I remember watching the radar just explode off NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I wish Rollo was still here. He'd probably have all sorts of interesting weenie commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro was awesome in Feb 2013...though it didn't have that death band in CT, but no model really did. NAM might have had it on a run or two. NAM rarely wins in its current form. Back when it was the ETA model, it scored some coups...the last being Dec 9, 2005 shortly before it was changed to the NAM-WRF. I think calling the NAM the clear winner in 2013 is a bit of a stretch. There was excellent model consensus for high QPF. The NAM may have had the absolute max QPF right, but it also had it over far too large an area. So is that right or wrong in the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think calling the NAM the clear winner in 2013 is a bit of a stretch. There was excellent model consensus for high QPF. The NAM may have had the absolute max QPF right, but it also had it over far too large an area. So is that right or wrong in the end? Nam had a death band, but it was displaced well northeast of Ct. Its qpf was overblown, too--not that that's unusual. But there was at least one run where it dumped 60" in northern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam had a death band, but it was displaced well northeast of Ct. Its qpf was overblown, too--not that that's unusual. But there was at least one run where it dumped 60" in northern Mass. Oh I remember some 50+ inch forecasts around LEW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 FWIW, NAM 18 hrs out from the February 2013 blizzard: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HI-RES 4km: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam had a death band, but it was displaced well northeast of Ct. Its qpf was overblown, too--not that that's unusual. But there was at least one run where it dumped 60" in northern Mass.the signal was there and tossed. Never forget that discussion here. Kev Ray called for 30 lollies and were weenied. Conservative forecasts are usually right but been some big big storms where caution should have been thrown out the window.That was one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Geezus the mass media is a joke and they point theur fingers at weenie FB pages. Hypocrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Geezus the mass media is a joke and they point theur fingers at weenie FB pages. Hypocrites Unfortunately they want the same clicks the weenie Facebook pages get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Water vapor already pumping up to Michigan. So impressive. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some intense convection of the coast with the 4km NAM. Silly question...Does the high res NAM models use totally diff algorithms than the control run on the NAM on Twisterdata and COD and whatnot (what is it, the 12km NAM I think)? It's not just like it's a higher res version of essentially the same initial conditions? Here's my map from earlier today. I don't think I'll change a whole lot. Taunton and recent GFS runs show something similar. Winds are prob a little bullish, but I think the highest gusts could reach 60mph on extreme SNE coast and Islands. Maybe a few 45-55mph gusts for New Bed, Plymouth, S RI I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Water vapor already pumping up to Michigan. So impressive. That ULL is diggin for oil in the Yucatan. Beautiful WV, now that something you don't see everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nice lil power nap, what I miss, what I miss. Wait are you tellin me the meso model are less wrong? Globals failed? Okay I haven't looked but that's the vibe I'm getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Your thoughts on this map......seems a little low. I thought it ticked a little north??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Cold morning..Coldest in quite some time 10.6 with wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SREF plumes (holding back desire to cry) 2-20" max out around 30" in BOS Key here is they appear to be dead nuts for DC and DWI 20-30" max'n at 40" TOSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's like Christmas x10 (even for the Jews) over in the Mid Atlantic forum. Many of those folks may be seeing something they never see again with this one. If I can score an inch or 2 I will be mildly happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 based on radar trends, it looks like this thing would travel right up coast and wallop us. Oh well, Randy4Confluence wins out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SREF Plume average is 16.18 inches for KBDR with some approaching 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM juju dance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM juju dance Maybe you could do one for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For those that want to watch from afar: http://www.trafficland.com/city/WAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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