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About Wx4cast

  • Rank
    I am "The Master" and my colleagues agree
  • Birthday July 27

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  • Gender
  • Location:
    Glens Falls & Albany
  • Interests
    Duh, Weather Forecasting. Some of my particular weather interests: tropical weather and marine meteorology. I am also interested in severe weather especially Cool Season convection and Cold Frontal Rainbands (CFRB).

    Hobbies: Cooking, painting, photography, fishing

    Pleasures: Family, my trusted and special friends. Watching classic movies.
    Enjoying a finely crafted beer or ale.
    Playing hockey - (alright at my age I just watch it).

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  1. We had some in Upstate NY around GFL and Lake George
  2. I agree with you..I see a very active coastal track.
  3. Any thoughts on severe potential for wednesday???
  4. Totally agree..no real +DN until near last week of the month, which might also be very stormy for May think circa 22-23 and around 30th could be convectively active period for NEUS, esp. the 30th.
  5. Don't see any Spring until at least last week of this month. Also for may will be quite stormy, especially the last 10 days... days to watch circa 22-23 May and again around the 30th, which could be very (convectively) stormy for the NEUS.
  6. May looks more like april esp. thru the first 10 days or so...cool showery/rainy at times. At least the rainfall is welcome.
  7. Actually sat in on a seminar with NWSFO Albany quite a few years ago and its actually closer to 2" of ice that is bad. 1/2"-1" is bad IF ice accretion is accompanied by strong winds.
  8. My call for now. I have low confidence in the MV to Saratoga -GFL Lake George amounts. I might be 2" or so too LOW.
  9. Here's what I am thinking. Still concerned that I might be a bit too low across the board especially in the Mohawk Valley to Saratoga Lake George regions.
  10. I think all the models UK/EC/GFS/EC favor better chance for wintry precip or all snow especially W by N by NE of KALB for Tues-Wed AM. High is in a much better spot along with the necking ridge to its east across ON/QU Provinces. Think this ridge may actually be a bit stronger too as we get closer to the event thanks to Monday's system up over Newfyland bombing out resulting in a greater confluent zone across QU and NNE. Also looks like some pretty strong ageo NNE-N flow over the NEUS.
  11. Looks more like an unstable wave to me with initial mix/rain start for ENY and NE changing over to some snow late Tuesday into Wed AM. Areas WNW thru North and NE of Albany wet snow and/or some sleet then all snow with best chances for a moderate (3- 6") snow fall perhaps marginally heavy snow (6-9") if it falls as all snow. Unlike past storms the cold air is moving over the NEUS as the low is too; previous events had the high in the wrong place so to speak plus the lows tracked west of the area.
  12. I'm getting more excited about the midweek event...the high is back to the NW with a "neck of the ridge" E-SE to ON/QU. Unlike prior storms where the cold air was LEAVING, this one has the cold air come in or drawn in during the event. Here's what I posted on the WNYT station weather page for my discussion: Expect another active week. Just like last weekend and mild weather this weekend will end on a mild note. Just like last week we're looking at another midweek storm threat followed by a blast of very cold air to close it out. High pressure well to our south and a low pressure system and cold front to our west will provide a SW breeze bringing in some milder air for Sunday afternoon. With at least partly sunny skies expect afternoon temperatures from 50-55 from Albany and points south to 45-50 to the north. As the cold front gets closer Sunday night expect clouds to lower and thicken tomorrow night. Late at night some scattered rain (possibly mixed with wet snow over the Adirondacks) showers to develop. This shower threat will end during Monday morning with the cold front sliding to our east along with sunshine for the afternoon and slightly cooler weather, too. Afternoon highs for Monday in the lower to mid 40s (30s for folks across the Adirondacks). Now we come to Tuesday-Wednesday (the beginning of March) and another threat for a midweek storm (have had a few of them this winter). Like the previous weeks' mid-week storm threats this one will be no different that is, it will be quite a challenge to forecast. It appears that this week's storm will be evolving in a slightly different way: colder air will be located to the NW and N of the region and its showing signs of moving over us. (The previous storms had the cold air to our northeast or east and moving AWAY from us.) This week's storm based on forecast data from nearly all of our computer models is trending to our south and east, keeping us on the cold side and posing the potential for more in the way of wintry precipitation, including SNOW. Whether or not this is indeed the case will depend on the cold air making it over us. (Prior midweek storms tracked to our west placing us on the warm side of the systems.) Right now this forecaster's confidence in the Tues-Wed time period is low and the forecast is subject to change. For now I am thinking we'll see rain on Tuesday especially from Albany south and east changing to snow at night into Wednesday morning. Areas north through northwest COULD see ALL snow or a wintry mix for a while through Wednesday morning. Confidence increases in the forecast for the end of next week. Expect a shot of unseasonably cold air to return to the area. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts over the next few days!
  13. It has a bit of a bias still in showing too high a qpf in cold airmasses.