I'm getting more excited about the midweek event...the high is back to the NW with a "neck of the ridge" E-SE to ON/QU. Unlike prior storms where the cold air was LEAVING, this one has the cold air come in or drawn in during the event. Here's what I posted on the WNYT station weather page for my discussion:
Expect another active week. Just like last weekend and mild weather this weekend will end on a mild note. Just like last week we're looking at another midweek storm threat followed by a blast of very cold air to close it out. High pressure well to our south and a low pressure system and cold front to our west will provide a SW breeze bringing in some milder air for Sunday afternoon. With at least partly sunny skies expect afternoon temperatures from 50-55 from Albany and points south to 45-50 to the north. As the cold front gets closer Sunday night expect clouds to lower and thicken tomorrow night. Late at night some scattered rain (possibly mixed with wet snow over the Adirondacks) showers to develop. This shower threat will end during Monday morning with the cold front sliding to our east along with sunshine for the afternoon and slightly cooler weather, too. Afternoon highs for Monday in the lower to mid 40s (30s for folks across the Adirondacks).
Now we come to Tuesday-Wednesday (the beginning of March) and another threat for a midweek storm (have had a few of them this winter). Like the previous weeks' mid-week storm threats this one will be no different that is, it will be quite a challenge to forecast. It appears that this week's storm will be evolving in a slightly different way: colder air will be located to the NW and N of the region and its showing signs of moving over us. (The previous storms had the cold air to our northeast or east and moving AWAY from us.)
This week's storm based on forecast data from nearly all of our computer models is trending to our south and east, keeping us on the cold side and posing the potential for more in the way of wintry precipitation, including SNOW. Whether or not this is indeed the case will depend on the cold air making it over us. (Prior midweek storms tracked to our west placing us on the warm side of the systems.)
Right now this forecaster's confidence in the Tues-Wed time period is low and the forecast is subject to change. For now I am thinking we'll see rain on Tuesday especially from Albany south and east changing to snow at night into Wednesday morning. Areas north through northwest COULD see ALL snow or a wintry mix for a while through Wednesday morning. Confidence increases in the forecast for the end of next week. Expect a shot of unseasonably cold air to return to the area. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts over the next few days!