Wx4cast

My Call for the HV and WNE

Sounds like many of you had a blast with this past storm. Next one is for me and the east-central NYS folks too. Glad it worked out well for most.

Probably this (warm layers), dry layers and weak vertical motion. Also from an isentropic perpective ( a bit technical) my apologies you actually had winds descending DOWN these surfaces (negative lift) vs. going UP these surfaces. That will be changing soon.

Thanks and you're all welcome. Enjoy the band when it rocks you. Nothing like 2-4 inch/per snowfall with the winds rippin' and whippin' too. Envy you buggers but my time will come. Remember: Have fun and enjoy!

You should get into the awesome snow growth region after 8pm or so huge dendrites incredible banding. See above post See above post RUC has been off past 2-3 hours on LP placement and precip too far east and south

I think you may be wrong based on the 15z SREF LP track so far west and also jump west on its QPF progs. Just my take. I think POU will definitely get 10-12 but there's a MOD probability 40% for 18 inches.

Here are some Time Sections (TSEC) from the OOZ GFS. RH is color contoured. Temps are overlayed WITH snowgrowth region highlighted in lavender. Wind barbs usual convention in knots and upward vertical motion contoured in yellow. First station is HUDSON NY, 2nd is POU, 3rd is ALB, last is GFL:

18z SREFs did too along with lower probabilities for .3 and .5 qp across ENY. This said I still think during the rapid Intensification period of this storm it will slow (and possibly loop) and/or jog some to the NW more towards BID Sound then pass off to the NW of the BM.

No problem. Right now the bolded area that you highlighted IMO stands the best chance for moderate to heavy snow fall (at this time). All this said I still have not and won't come out with any firm numbers this early; probably won't see anything from me until late Saturday at the earliest. We (I) just need to see some more swing W by N in the ensembles over time.

I've been perusing the 00z & 06Z GEFS ensembles...some interesting features of note. First both times have near the same amount of members showing a left of track low with 3 showing a hit and 6 a glance. There are now 2 members of the 06z set that are slower with the storm's track and onset. However overall the 06z ensemble/ensemble meant for 06z has a more ene track and appears to track over 120 miles or so south of the New Engalnd BM. Right now I still think we will be dealing with 2 distinct cut-offs with this storm. The first will be where snow doesn't fall and where it does. The second will be within the snow area, that is very light to light accumulation and moderate or heavier amounts. Right now I think the potential for latter accumulation amounts is exist along an Ulster-S'rn Columbia and Duchess Counties east to the S'rn Berkshires and Litchfield county. As for the HV north of Albany I am not too excited for much if any snow fall or snowfall accumulation. I still think time IS on our side for a more widespread snowfall but we'll have to start seeing more ensembles and the ensemble mean shift north and west over the nxt 36 hours. Tomorrow will be telling IMO. If we start to see more of shift then north and west then its game on if we see either more of a shift south and east or the same current mix of data then prospects for what I posted above are more likely, perhaps even less than what I posted.