January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

[Heisy]

You don't get to say this much, but the EURO gives parts of SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI like a foot of snow @ 216 hrs. 

[Maestrobjwa]

So what needs to happen to get this thing to track north?

[Bob Chill]

Euro is tasty..need to get rid of that low in the lakes...

Or drop the ns vort quicker and phase it on the nc/sc border...

[Heisy]

Shortwave puttering out, but the Day 9-10 storm is like a Southern HECS. If the first one nails us I'm all for them getting in on the action they've been in one helluva snow drought

[AlaskaETC]

So does the Euro give us anything good?

[Deck Pic]

Shortwave puttering out, but the Day 9-10 storm is like a Southern HECS. If the first one nails us I'm all for them getting in on the action they've been in one helluva snow drought

 

speak for yourself

[ezweather]

The good news tonight is that both the GFS and Euro show a lot of action and hopefully, thats what we'll see.  Hopefully they track further up the coast and everyone gets in on the action. I would love three major hits.  Heck the GFS run, if you look at the North America view, you can see how many systems will make there way from the Pacific and dive into the Southern US.  

 

So, to me thats a good sign. There should lots of systems to track.  So, this pattern still has big potential.  

[DTWXRISK]

There are several powerful  short  waves  in the the southern jet stream.  The 0z  Saturday European  takes the shortwave at 120 hours over Texas and Oklahoma and develops into a major snowstorm for NC  VA MD  DEL and slides   the Low off the coast clipping Cape Cod .

 

The  0z GFS  sees that  shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma at 120 hours BUT it crushes into a weak   flat system  in the Gulf at 144   the surface Low  does not develop into anything significant.  Instead the  0z  GFS has a moderate amount of snow and ice from Tennessee Valley and portions of NC  VA followed by a weak LOW   that slides off the coast.

 

Instead the GFS focuses on an next shortwave coming out of the SW states and develops that one is the major East Coast snowstorm at 234 hours 

 

I have no idea which solution is correct but I will say that given the fact that we are dealing with a strong enhance  STJ  and the fact that the GFS loves to crush the   short waves in the southern jet stream during Arctic outbreaks  that the GFS solution for January 15-16 - ( the weak  wave of Low pressure)  is  probably bogus and the European solution is more likely to be correct 

 

And there may be a second a significant system after January 20

[Amped]

960 mb into Canada!

Thats like 955mbs east of the cape, I'm saving those panels in case anyone asks what a triple phaser is again.

[nj2va]

The good news tonight is that both the GFS and Euro show a lot of action and hopefully, thats what we'll see.  Hopefully they track further up the coast and everyone gets in on the action. I would love three major hits.  Heck the GFS run, if you look at the North America view, you can see how many systems will make there way from the Pacific and dive into the Southern US.  

 

So, to me thats a good sign. There should lots of systems to track.  So, this pattern still has big potential.  

 

Great post, my thoughts as well after watching the GFS and Euro come in.  This pattern is ripe with potential and the OP models are just beginning to try to get a handle on them.  

[Bob Chill]

12z euro ens members have virtually zero support for what the op just did. Like 1 member showing something similar. Either groundbreaking new data came that 50 ens members didn't catch or it was a big blip.

I won't be up for tonight's eps but my guess is it was a blip.

[AlaskaETC]

12z euro ens members have virtually zero support for what the op just did. Like 1 member showing something similar. Either groundbreaking new data came that 50 ens members didn't catch or it was a big blip.

I won't be up for tonight's eps but my guess is it was a blip.

 

The hunt continues I suppose.

[TowsonWeather]

There are several powerful short waves in the the southern jet stream. The 0z Saturday European takes the shortwave at 120 hours over Texas and Oklahoma and develops into a major snowstorm for NC VA MD DEL and slides the Low off the coast clipping Cape Cod .

The 0z GFS sees that shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma at 120 hours BUT it crushes into a weak flat system in the Gulf at 144 the surface Low does not develop into anything significant. Instead the 0z GFS has a moderate amount of snow and ice from Tennessee Valley and portions of NC VA followed by a weak LOW that slides off the coast.

Instead the GFS focuses on an next shortwave coming out of the SW states and develops that one is the major East Coast snowstorm at 234 hours

I have no idea which solution is correct but I will say that given the fact that we are dealing with a strong enhance STJ and the fact that the GFS loves to crush the short waves in the southern jet stream during Arctic outbreaks that the GFS solution for January 15-16 - ( the weak wave of Low pressure) is probably bogus and the European solution is more likely to be correct

And there may be a second a significant system after January 20

So you think the GFS is bogus and the Euro is correct?

Interesting.

[Tom]

So you think the GFS is bogus and the Euro is correct?

Interesting.

I thought I read he said he didn't know which one was correct, then stated their biases that the Euro is more likely.......So not sure where you are getting GFS is bogus from

[Heisy]

12z euro ens members have virtually zero support for what the op just did. Like 1 member showing something similar. Either groundbreaking new data came that 50 ens members didn't catch or it was a big blip.

I won't be up for tonight's eps but my guess is it was a blip.

 

I might sound like a weenie with this one, but ... Tracking models for the last decade I've noticed that a lot of the big ones come out of no where in the medium range. I've seen it countless times. Last year's January's SNE Blizzard is a perfect example. I remember during my lunch break @ work last year it was a 12z EURO run like 120 hours out I believe that all of a sudden showed a blizzard.  Very rarely will we get a storm show up 200+ hrs out and hold. PDII is one of the few that I can think of that was on the mods that far out. 

 

That being said it is likely a blip, but we'll see. Doesn't mean one of the waves won't produce though. 

[Tom]

I might sound like a weenie with this one, but ... Tracking models for the last decade I've noticed that a lot of the big ones come out of no where in the medium range. I've seen it countless times. Last year's January's SNE Blizzard is a perfect example. I remember during my lunch break @ work last year it was a 12z EURO run like 120 hours out I believe that all of a sudden showed a blizzard.  Very rarely will we get a storm show up 200+ hrs out and hold. PDII is one of the few that I can think of that was on the mods that far out. 

 

That being said it is likely a blip, but we'll see. Doesn't mean one of the waves won't produce though. 

agree that makes sense, right now the pattern is what matters, then within a few days is when the or an actual storm pops up....right now we are in the pattern mode

[SnowGoose69]

12z euro ens members have virtually zero support for what the op just did. Like 1 member showing something similar. Either groundbreaking new data came that 50 ens members didn't catch or it was a big blip.

I won't be up for tonight's eps but my guess is it was a blip.

 

Didn't the GFA have a squashed wave over Florida around the time the 00Z Euro shows the first storm?  that would make sense given the GFS smashing southern waves.

[MillvilleWx]

I'm interested to see the soundings on that 6z GFS run tonight for the 17th. It was actually one of the better solutions we've seen from the GFS (Outside that crazy blizzard from a few days ago), and the 500mb representation is pretty decent. There was still a few things that could've went better as far as the greater amplitude potential goes for the vorts that phased, but the one thing to note is the southern stream will be stout and the models will actually under do precip in these phased storms. That being said, this was a decent run and a step in the right direction away from suppression. It is only ONE run though, so you know how often this will flip. Verbatim, this was a nice storm for the far western Burbs and Mappy.

[PDIII]

I'm interested to see the soundings on that 6z GFS run tonight for the 17th. It was actually one of the better solutions we've seen from the GFS (Outside that crazy blizzard from a few days ago), and the 500mb representation is pretty decent. There was still a few things that could've went better as far as the greater amplitude potential goes for the vorts that phased, but the one thing to note is the southern stream will be stout and the models will actually under do precip in these phased storms. That being said, this was a decent run and a step in the right direction away from suppression. It is only ONE run though, so you know how often this will flip. Verbatim, this was a nice storm for the far western Burbs and Mappy.

I'm pretty sure that with the blocking pattern we have in place we can run that thing right up into the Appalachians. With it being mid January I don't think we'll have much of a problem squeezing snow out of it. Unless it really cuts but I don't think it's going to

[PDIII]

Ohhhhh.... I just saw the rest of the panels. That's a snow storm right there. That's a bona fide snowstorm

[Ji]

Can you imagone the you know it's a bad winter thread if the 00z euro actually verified

[BristowWx]

God morning. Nice to see nothing has been solved while I was asleep. I am not sure what the 6z did but it looks an interesting evolution.

[JC-CT]

I might sound like a weenie with this one, but ... Tracking models for the last decade I've noticed that a lot of the big ones come out of no where in the medium range. I've seen it countless times. Last year's January's SNE Blizzard is a perfect example. I remember during my lunch break @ work last year it was a 12z EURO run like 120 hours out I believe that all of a sudden showed a blizzard. Very rarely will we get a storm show up 200+ hrs out and hold. PDII is one of the few that I can think of that was on the mods that far out.

That being said it is likely a blip, but we'll see. Doesn't mean one of the waves won't produce though.

It was actually 84 hours

[AmericanWxFreak]

[Bob Chill]

Didn't the GFA have a squashed wave over Florida around the time the 00Z Euro shows the first storm? that would make sense given the GFS smashing southern waves.

I don't disagree about the gfs not doing so hot with southern stream waves but I'm still having a really hard time buying the euro solution. The parallel doesn't show it and the 0z eps again shows virtually zero support. Zero support from all other global guidance as well (haven't seen the ukie though)

Right now a single euro op run is on a complete island. It's still a possible solution but a total outlier.

[Kmlwx]

I don't disagree about the gfs not doing so hot with southern stream waves but I'm still having a really hard time buying the euro solution. The parallel doesn't show it and the 0z eps again shows virtually zero support. Zero support from all other global guidance as well (haven't seen the ukie though)

Right now a single euro op run is on a complete island. It's still a possible solution but a total outlier.

Having no support from the EPS is certainly not a good sign. Still, seems we will have some chances to cash in with all of this potential action on the table. Let's not go 0 for x on these...

[Kat]

That last gfs run was a big jump off the suppression train.

[packbacker]

I don't disagree about the gfs not doing so hot with southern stream waves but I'm still having a really hard time buying the euro solution. The parallel doesn't show it and the 0z eps again shows virtually zero support. Zero support from all other global guidance as well (haven't seen the ukie though)

Right now a single euro op run is on a complete island. It's still a possible solution but a total outlier.

I counted 2 members that supported the day 5-6 event (control/51), LOL. I do think what the eps parallel is doing makes most sense, suppressed day 5 and the tracks slp over gulf states over ATL then looks to transfer over NC and hits you guys to NE. I like chances for NC after this time.

[CAPE]

I don't disagree about the gfs not doing so hot with southern stream waves but I'm still having a really hard time buying the euro solution. The parallel doesn't show it and the 0z eps again shows virtually zero support. Zero support from all other global guidance as well (haven't seen the ukie though)

Right now a single euro op run is on a complete island. It's still a possible solution but a total outlier.

 

Mount Holly mentioned it in their AFD-

 

FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, FORECASTING QUIET WEATHER (NOT THE

OUTLIER 00Z/9 ECMWF OPERATIONAL SOLUTION)

[Kevin Reilly]

There are several powerful short waves in the the southern jet stream. The 0z Saturday European takes the shortwave at 120 hours over Texas and Oklahoma and develops into a major snowstorm for NC VA MD DEL and slides the Low off the coast clipping Cape Cod .

The 0z GFS sees that shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma at 120 hours BUT it crushes into a weak flat system in the Gulf at 144 the surface Low does not develop into anything significant. Instead the 0z GFS has a moderate amount of snow and ice from Tennessee Valley and portions of NC VA followed by a weak LOW that slides off the coast.

Instead the GFS focuses on an next shortwave coming out of the SW states and develops that one is the major East Coast snowstorm at 234 hours

I have no idea which solution is correct but I will say that given the fact that we are dealing with a strong enhance STJ and the fact that the GFS loves to crush the short waves in the southern jet stream during Arctic outbreaks that the GFS solution for January 15-16 - ( the weak wave of Low pressure) is probably bogus and the European solution is more likely to be correct

And there may be a second a significant system after January 20

Correct the GFS tends to have a bias of spitting only pieces of energy east from the southwest US ...and usually the Euro holds the energy together out west just doesnt send it eastbound...looks to me I too side with Euro its sending it...