MarkO Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 How does ski country do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Do you think there is any potential of a small to middle sized ice storm out of this? Small probably. I don't think the duration is there for anything bigger in terms of ice. There's a low chance maybe a narrow zone gets greater than a quarter inch of ice. But that type of detail is impossible at this range. I mean this could keep trending warmer or it could start coming back colder. We just need to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 His point is really that consistency beyond d5 is pretty meaningless. I think that has been rehashed many times on here. Well, we needed something to change the seasons spirits so we latched on. But we all knew things can change, just sucked that it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 How does ski country do?Advisory stuff mainly. It cut qpf a lot for northern zones in addition to being warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I'd still take snows for ski resorts, last thing we need is a region wide shutout. So good luck in future runs nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 To put things in perspective, we haven't even seen a LR NAM run of this yet. That's how much time we have to make changes before the event is upon us. Obviously this wasn't what we wanted to see, but all hope is not anywhere near lost. Step away from the computers, enjoy a merry Christmas with friends and family, and we'll see where this takes us on the 0z suite and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I see the models have gotten warmer. I never believed we would see 8" of snow out of this like the 00z GFS showed. My attention is towards the end of the month and beginning of next month while we have a +PNA and -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 To put things in perspective, we haven't even seen a LR NAM run of this yet. That's how much time we have to make changes before the event is upon us. Obviously this wasn't what we wanted to see, but all hope is not anywhere near lost. Step away from the computers, enjoy a merry Christmas with friends and family, and we'll see where this takes us on the 0z suite and beyond. If I had a dime for every trend the models underwent in the 120-96 frame or so and then reversed again I'd be able to buy a decent dinner. It seems common to see some sort of swing Day 4-5 and then see it go the other way Day 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 To put things in perspective, we haven't even seen a LR NAM run of this yet. That's how much time we have to make changes before the event is upon us. Obviously this wasn't what we wanted to see, but all hope is not anywhere near lost. Step away from the computers, enjoy a merry Christmas with friends and family, and we'll see where this takes us on the 0z suite and beyond. Trends can reverse quickly at this time range. We saw colder solutions all day yesterday starting the night before until 00z euro last night. Then everything came in warmer just like that. It can reverse again on little notice. Especially given the two pieces of energy are not easy for models to handle. A deep southwestern cutoff and a northern stream element way up in Canada that has yet to come onshore. You obviously prefer not to have the colder trend suddenly reverse but just because it did, it doesn't mean it's true. Not at this time range. If we were 36 hours closer, it would be more concerning. We will want to see things at least stabilize next two runs and then come back colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Trends can reverse quickly at this time range. We saw colder solutions all day yesterday starting the night before until 00z euro last night. Then everything came in warmer just like that. It can reverse again on little notice. Especially given the two pieces of energy are not easy for models to handle. A deep southwestern cutoff and a northern stream element way up in Canada that has yet to come onshore. You obviously prefer not to have the colder trend suddenly reverse but just because it did, it doesn't mean it's true. Not at this time range. If we were 36 hours closer, it would be more concerning. We will want to see things at least stabilize next two runs and then come back colder I've been surprised this can cut so far north out of TX/OK with that energy coming ashore into the West. I figured the strong SE ridge could aid in this going more north but thought the energy behind it would be more of an influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I'll call it a win if I get to see my first flakes of the season, so no hope lost yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Fun to track while it lasted . Sigh. Oh well. Good luck NNE lol you swing back and forth more than the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I've been surprised this can cut so far north out of TX/OK with that energy coming ashore into the West. I figured the strong SE ridge could aid in this going more north but thought the energy behind it would be more of an influence. It is definitely an odd track for a vigorous cutoff ULL. Really nothing would surprise me though because those features are unpredictable. But I do tend to agree you'd see a little more longitude gained just looking at it anecdotally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 It is definitely an odd track for a vigorous cutoff ULL. Really nothing would surprise me though because those features are unpredictable. But I do tend to agree you'd see a little more longitude gained just looking at it anecdotally. Perhaps a dumb question but what would influence the path and track of the high pressure system...or even the speed? Is it just the jet stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Still worth tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I'm sick of the rain but I hear we're in a drought, so I guess we'll take it. Still worth watching until Pats kickoff time for ticks back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Still worth tracking Exactly, no reason to make Christmas joyless over model corrections four days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Exactly, no reason to make Christmas joyless over model corrections four days out. 4 days ago we were saying how the euro did enough just to get us off the measurable mat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 And EC follows suit. Is what it is, bad start to winter continues.It is what it is.2-5" at worst. 4-8" at best. My thinking remains unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 It is what it is. 2-5" at worse. 4-8" at best. My thinking remains unchanged. You were never in jeapordy, South of pike different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 4 days ago we were saying how the euro did enough just to get us off the measurable mat.Exactly.The pattern hasn't even changed yet,so any flake is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 You were never in jeapordy, South of pike different story.S of pike was never in for a significant snowfall, that's my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 3-5" looks good still, first snow of the year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 A big win this winter would be to cover the grass. So even 2-3" would be much appreciated. Just to be able to look outside without seeing grass would be a huge step in the right direction, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 A big win this winter would be to cover the grass. So even 2-3" would be much appreciated. Just to be able to look outside without seeing grass would be a huge step in the right direction, lol. As long as the grass is..do you think 2-3 would cover it? Seems like 4-6 is needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I just want to be done with double digit positive departures Anything else is gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Don't mind me lurking!or commenting, ww3 erupted in NYC forum lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I've been busy so anything new update wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 As long as the grass is..do you think 2-3 would cover it? Seems like 4-6 is neededFinal rake and mow today. One inch will cover our lawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Don't mind me lurking!or commenting, ww3 erupted in NYC forum lol! Wow, That's a shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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