SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Still moderate to heavy precip at hour 114, 2m 32f line is now about DXR-BDL-NEMA with lots of pinging north of there. H7 0c line is around the MA/NH border. Probably a couple inches of snow for CT to ice to rain, advisory type stuff along the Pike with lots of IP/ZR afterwards and warning snows CNE/NNE/NNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah agree. It's pretty darn chilly. Might be a sneaky 800-750 warm layer, but that looks like a CF weenie snow band too after low departs. Not to be a Christmas wet blanket, but that's pretty typical too. We get all excited by model runs keeping that layer below freezing, then all of sudden during the event it's post after post of, "WTF, I wasn't supposed to ping?!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 And th cold tuck to hold off the warmth coming in after the storm, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 And th cold tuck to hold off the warmth coming in after the storm, That actually gives some hang-back snow for SNE. Esp pike region and NE MA. That's kind of an awkward setup with the high getting stronger during the storm so to me that says there's a lot of upside to this. Still hard to keep remembering this is more than 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Actually looks like it flips some back to snow between hours 120-126 as the coastal pulls away -- nice little hangback for eastern areas(Couple more inches for BOS verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The tide may finally be turning, Good night and happy holidays everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 It'll be funny if we have the warmest Dec on record but many folks close it out with near average snowfall I mean it's not crazy to think BOS could be +10 on temps and like -1 or -2 on snowfall if this system breaks right for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That actually gives some hang-back snow for SNE. Esp pike region and NE MA. That's kind of an awkward setup with the high getting stronger during the storm so to me that says there's a lot of upside to this. Still hard to keep remembering this is more than 4 days out. Euro really develops an 850 low between 18-00z. Too late for a true CCB, but enough to delay the precip shutting off completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I mean it's not crazy to think BOS could be +10 on temps and like -1 or -2 on snowfall if this system breaks right for them.ORH in January 2006 was something like +9 with 24"+ of snow for the month. (Avg is around 17) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro really develops an 850 low between 18-00z. Too late for a true CCB, but enough to delay the precip shutting off completely. The high building in during the storm rather than retreating is a bit of a red flag for potentially shutting off the big WAA and backing the flow in the mid-levels depending on how deep that high is (and it looks deep layer). I mean, if it's overmodeled then it's not going to help as much but it is definitely something to watch. Pretty classic look for hanging back an inverted trough too with a little mid level support. It is definitely a system that has over performer written on it given the synoptic setup. But probably the thing I'd be most worried about is if the WCB omega thump is more diluted. That's a good way for sneaky warm layers to rear their ugly head. Second worry would be that the high trends weaker of course. But it's in a really good location right now on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Ice potential could be the biggest concern over snow across northern CT (and maybe slightly north as well) depending on how things unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The high building in during the storm rather than retreating is a bit of a red flag for potentially shutting off the big WAA and backing the flow in the mid-levels depending on how deep that high is (and it looks deep layer). I mean, if it's overmodeled then it's not going to help as much but it is definitely something to watch. Pretty classic look for hanging back an inverted trough too with a little mid level support. It is definitely a system that has over performer written on it given the synoptic setup. But probably the thing I'd be most worried about is if the WCB omega thump is more diluted. That's a good way for sneaky warm layers to rear their ugly head. Second worry would be that the high trends weaker of course. But it's in a really good location right now on guidance. It looks like the Euro has been fairly steady with the system the last 3-4 runs, which is good because it's favorable for most of the forum for some accumulation. It would also be so like the GFS to over-correct cold (since it was much warmer than the Euro last night). That's what makes that model tough to use sometimes. Very reactionary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Nam still winds up top fast and to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 6z gfs looks cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The best isentropic lift forcing keeps trending south. That's quite a 6hr thump down there. The GFS is damn cold up here Tue afternoon. Upper teens with snow flying. Yeah that seems to be the trend on overnight runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah that seems to be the trend on overnight runs..excluding the Euro burp. ENS colder The burp where it has been consistent for the last 3-4 runs? And the ensembles don't have the critical 18z frame when mid levels would be the warmest. Ensembles are basically in lock step with the op regarding SNE frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The burp where it has been consistent for the last 3-4 runs? And the ensembles don't have the critical 18z frame when mid levels would be the warmest. Ensembles are basically in lock step with the op regarding SNE frozen precip. It was discussed how the 00z run came in warmer than 12z . 12z was 3-6 of snow south of pike to sleet .. Now it's 1-3, then an icestorm. So it hasn't been consistent. Will mentioned why it's likely overestimating the warming as well in case you missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 6z came in warmer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 It was discussed how the 00z run came in warmer than 12z . 12z was 3-6 of snow south of pike to sleet .. Now it's 1-3, then an icestorm. So it hasn't been consistent. Will mentioned why it's likely overestimating the warming as well in case you missed it It actually didn't really come in warmer, comparing frame to frame temps are nearly identical aloft. People were assuming it was 3-6 south of the pike, but it was never really showing that at 12z. Either way, Will did mention why it is possibly overestimating warmth, nothing is likely or set in stone yet. At over 100 hours to go I'll lean towards pingers to the pike for now. But if you want to bank on -0.5oC at 800 mb to save you, that's fine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 It actually didn't really come in warmer, comparing frame to frame temps are nearly identical aloft. People were assuming it was 3-6 south of the pike, but it was never really showing that at 12z. Either way, Will did mention why it is possibly overestimating warmth, nothing is likely or set in stone yet. At over 100 hours to go I'll lean towards pingers to the pike for now. But if you want to bank on -0.5oC at 800 mb to save you, that's fine too. I agree. It's not an all snow event south of the pike. Never a chance at that. Right now I think 2-4 or 3-5 between HFD to the Pike, then sleet and zr before an inch or 2 on backside with ULL. North of pike prob mostly snow with 6-10.. Maybe an hour or 2 of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yes. A lot of sleet it indicates. Yoda?? 6z gfs looks cold... 6z came in warmer too. It looked warmer to me...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 It looked warmer to me...... Two men say they're Jesus; one of them must be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Also, seems to be signs of a better secondary forming on EC and GFS. That. At at least lock in low level cold close to Boston if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 It was discussed how the 00z run came in warmer than 12z . 12z was 3-6 of snow south of pike to sleet .. Now it's 1-3, then an icestorm. So it hasn't been consistent. Will mentioned why it's likely overestimating the warming as well in case you missed it As you say, "we" toss the GFS as soon as it's initialized and we ride the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Any chance that rain on NYE/NYD can trend a bit colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Also, seems to be signs of a better secondary forming on EC and GFS. That. At at least lock in low level cold close to Boston if nothing else. Your cold tuck is looking better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Your cold tuck is looking better and better. That could be interesting. Could be FZDZ or perhaps even come snIzzle and ocean effect type snow if the low level layer is cold enough, on other side of CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 It actually didn't really come in warmer, comparing frame to frame temps are nearly identical aloft. People were assuming it was 3-6 south of the pike, but it was never really showing that at 12z. Either way, Will did mention why it is possibly overestimating warmth, nothing is likely or set in stone yet. At over 100 hours to go I'll lean towards pingers to the pike for now. But if you want to bank on -0.5oC at 800 mb to save you, that's fine too. The ensembles at 12z seemed notably colder on the Euro than the Op. I haven't seen the 00z ones yet. The Euro seems to more want to shunt the high out of the way faster than the other guidance. Perhaps that is correct, but with that low just offshore Nova Scotia I don't know if that high will be so well positioned to depart as easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That could be interesting. Could be FZDZ or perhaps even come snIzzle and ocean effect type snow if the low level layer is cold enough, on other side of CF. I mean surface to 850 delta Ts are going to be large enough to generate some ocean effect precip. Maybe a bonus for coastal areas even when the mid level dry slot moves in? Instead of drizzle maybe we can maintain some snow showers with a really low DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.