40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 These slower solutions with the ULL ejecting out of the SW end up further north and the faster solutions end up further south in the timing with the HP moving over head so going forward have to see in future runs which way this goes and somewhere in between is plausible as well Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Maybe we're back to icestorm inland then with snow just for NNE. These solutions are all still ice cold at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yup. I would like to be in Northern Maine, They get owned no matter the outcome as they also get the overrunning that starts out on Sunday as snow right thru to weds in most of these scenarios, Its been the only place all December in the Northeast that has seen winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I would like to be in Northern Maine, They get owned no matter the outcome as they also get the overrunning that starts out on Sunday as snow right thru to weds in most of these scenarios Yeah if you could double dip between Sat Night and Sunday....as well as Tuesday... you'll get a lot haha. Anyway, GFS looks great for the ski areas to get warning criteria with a thump, then maybe drizzle or freezing drizzle then some back end snow with the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Maybe we're back to icestorm inland then with snow just for NNE. These solutions are all still ice cold at surface Nope, gfs is rain for all of CT after initial quick burst of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Maybe we're back to icestorm inland then with snow just for NNE. These solutions are all still ice cold at surface Yeah the warmer solutions aren't causing rain over the interior. It's more about how much snow falls first. This could easily trend back colder in the next day and then warmer again or trend warmer at 00z only to trend back colder after that. 4 days out is still a long time for these. It's not like a coastal with decent blocking where margin for error is large and the guidance is fairly predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah if you could double dip between Sat Night and Sunday....as well as Tuesday... you'll get a lot haha. Anyway, GFS looks great for the ski areas to get warning criteria with a thump, then maybe drizzle or freezing drizzle then some back end snow with the ULL. Every map i look at so far has them 12-20"+ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Nope, gfs is rain for all of CT after initial quick burst of frozen. I wouldn't take the surface temps on the GFS too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I wouldn't take the surface temps on the GFS too seriously. Noted... so it can stay icey from DXR to HFD then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I don't believe you scour that cold out at the surface that quickly, There really is no mechanism as most of this is overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 There's a sneaky warm layer on the GGEM that punches way north that I can't see on the individual panels but is showing up on the snowmaps. Lots of pingers all the way up to near the Canadian border on this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah the warmer solutions aren't causing rain over the interior. It's more about how much snow falls first. This could easily trend back colder in the next day and then warmer again or trend warmer at 00z only to trend back colder after that. 4 days out is still a long time for these. It's not like a coastal with decent blocking where margin for error is large and the guidance is fairly predictable. We need that sw to be sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I don't believe you scour that cold out at the surface that quickly, There really is no mechanism as most of this is overrunning The mainly rain runs are as every bit as much BS as the 15" of snow that was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Happy Holidays...your thought on southern ,NH? mix? or mostly snow.....ty Mostly snow with a chance of pinging at the end. 4-8" my guess for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The mainly rain runs are as every bit as much BS as the 15" of snow that was modeled. In the end somebody gets the SWFE 6-10" Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah the warmer solutions aren't causing rain over the interior. It's more about how much snow falls first. This could easily trend back colder in the next day and then warmer again or trend warmer at 00z only to trend back colder after that. 4 days out is still a long time for these. It's not like a coastal with decent blocking where margin for error is large and the guidance is fairly predictable. Yeah I've seen a few posts thinking the reason for less snow is because of plain rain. That HP is still strong and massive ..ice cold at surface. Hopefully the Euro holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Noted... so it can stay icey from DXR to HFD then?Yes absolutely. But I still really want to caution this is 4 days out. The airmass could trend a lot weaker. It is really easy to get the impression that this is like as confident as a 48 or 60 hour forecast. But it's got a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Mostly snow with a chance of pinging at the end. 4-8" my guess for now. thank you Chris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 There's a sneaky warm layer on the GGEM that punches way north that I can't see on the individual panels but is showing up on the snowmaps. Lots of pingers all the way up to near the Canadian border on this scenario. Yeah definitely something in the GGEM snow algorithm that isn't there on the GFS. The GGEM snow maps are a little better in that regard. Maybe it uses the warmest layer or something. Not that myself or Dryslot would complain about this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Given climo, the nature of SWFE's, the abnormally warm pattern we've been in it is not surprising to see models correcting north a bit. Anyway, even 4 days out I like my location for this. This seems to be a N of Rt 2 / CNE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The mainly rain runs are as every bit as much BS as the 15" of snow that was modeled. Yeah agreed. Double digits to me seems like it'll be pretty damn hard to do with a 6-8 hour burst of good lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah agreed. Double digits to me seems like it'll be pretty damn hard to do with a 6-8 hour burst of good lift. Someone will probably do well with the hang back snows up north where the ULL tries to cross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GGEM is brutal for sne. Gotta stop the warm trend tonight before it starts to ruin the ski resorts nye/nyd plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GGEM is brutal for sne. Gotta stop the warm trend tonight before it starts to ruin the ski resorts nye/nyd plans.There is no warm trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 There is no warm trend Look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 There is no warm trend 0z EC and 12z guidance have significantly trended warmer/North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Someone will probably do well with the hang back snows up north where the ULL tries to cross. Yeah I was thinking that, but it is pretty marginal temps at H85-H7 for a bit there, even up here. It does crash southeast as the ULL moves overhead but the timing of the precip makes me think that may be more like snow grains for a while and not your classic like high ratio ULL snow where 0.2" QPF gives you another 3-6". But yes overall, I think you're right in that where the strong WAA isentropic lift and ULL snows overlap, that would be the best chance for a 10-12 spot. Right now that could be anywhere from like RT 2 to CNE on the colder south solutions to Quebec-CAR in the warmer north tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas from the models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 0z EC and 12z guidance have significantly trended warmer/North. We're talking surface..where it did not. The warming is all aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That GGEM clown snow map would be ledge worthy for some if it was inside 72 hrs .....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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