40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 sleet as snow crap map Def. too heavy s of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 You know that's mostly sleet south of 84. I'd do back flips if I got 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GGEM still warm aloft like 12z. Despite a pretty good high location. It has the big warm punch at 700-750 but pretty cold below that. So a lot of sleet. I couldn't tell just looking quickly but it may have been a little cooler than 12z. But definitely not as cold as GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 You know that's mostly sleet south of 84. I'd do back flips if I got 5".link to the soundings you analyzed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GGEM still warm like 12z. Despite a pretty good high location. It has the big warm punch at 700-750 but pretty cold below that. So a lot of sleet. I couldn't tell just looking quickly but it may have been a little cooler than 12z. But definitely not as cold as GFS. there's a good ice threat from the hills of s ct through nw nj and n pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GGEM still warm like 12z. Despite a pretty good high location. It has the big warm punch at 700-750 but pretty cold below that. So a lot of sleet. I couldn't tell just looking quickly but it may have been a little cooler than 12z. But definitely not as cold as GFS.is GGEM ever as cold in insitu cad. Amazing how different it ends up than RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 link to the soundings you analyzed Here's 750mb temps at the start of the precip. All sleet for anyone south of that 0c line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 if you're going to look at a clown map use earl barker's 10:1 ratio maps http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm thanks for the link ,about the same for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 there's a good ice threat from the hills of s ct through nw nj and n pa synoptically ... this has looked more like an icer from the get go. We'll see. if nothing else ... at least SNE is on the N side the boundary - that's a nice seasonal progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 link to the soundings you analyzedCome on dood.http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/25000.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 if you're going to look at a clown map use earl barker's 10:1 ratio maps http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Nice link, thanks. I'm pretty confident we will see our first advisory snowfall of the season here in the NW corner of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Def. too heavy s of pike.you looked at soundings right? Interested in a link to the soundings you guys looked at before you made these posts. It may be that the maps are overly heavy with sleet but where is the key. Blanket statements without looking can be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 you looked at soundings right? Interested in a link to the soundings you guys looked at before you made these posts. It may be that the maps are overly heavy with sleet but where is the key. Blanket statements without looking can be wrong. I don't care to analyze model soundings to the .1 degree. There will not be 7" of snow at Kev's place in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 there will not be 6" in nw nj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 This is why people all you a frigidaire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Here's 750mb temps at the start of the precip. All sleet for anyone south of that 0c line.depending on the VVs and depth of that layer, I will look in depth and then decide where the changover occurs and for how long. Blanket statements about all of CT and south of the Pike were thrown out, just checking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I don't care to analyze model soundings to the .1 degree. There will not be 7" of snow at Kev's place in this event. 84-90hr when bulk comes in it's pretty rough for most of CT, maybe SW/W CT does OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 84-90hr when bulk comes in it's pretty rough for most of CT, maybe SW/W CT does OK I honestly don't care whether or not the soundings support the map. If they do, they won't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 This is why people all you a frigidaire.you are acting like you are certain of an outcome, glad you are that good. Congrats see you on TWC soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 you are acting like you are certain of an outcome, glad you are that good. Congrats see you on TWC soon. I'll remember this. Prepare to eat it. lol jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I honestly don't care whether or not the soundings support the map. If they do, they won't verify yea because no swfe has ever done that, ok lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 yea because no swfe has ever done that, ok lol I don't care which ones have, I care about this one. I'm done....revisit after n CT is pelted to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I'll remember this. Prepare to eat it. lol jk cocky and self assured , you may be right this time but you may also eat humble pie, best served with ice cream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 cocky and self assured , you may be right this time but you may also eat humble pie, best served with ice cream. LOL I will eventually. And I'll laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Despite temps aloft, should be some decent CAD here for the duration of the event. Although not my ideal, snow then light glaze would be an ok kick off to winter. I've seen this happen so many times in the past 7 winters, it's why I love the SWFE storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 there will not be 6" in nw nj...you are in the wrong subforum, NWNJ is not SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I already busted on the one in Novie that I thought would get nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I don't care which ones have, I care about this one. I'm done....revisit after n CT is pelted to death. Scalps bloodied by sleet on the Tolland Massif? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Anyway, this event should serve to pick some resorts up off of the map. Sorry for the bickering, Will....move it if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The limiting factor for snow south of the pike especially is that the antecedent airmass in the mid levels never gets overly cold. It does north of the pike and especially CNE northward. But the cold becomes shallower the further south you go. There's a pretty tight gradient at about 800mb before the onset of the event over New England. Still 84h to start time so trends can happen. But this is why right now you are very unlikely to see one of those events that front end thumps SW CT with 7-8". This doesn't mean no frozen though. Sleet and some icing are a high threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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