SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 We're talking surface..where it did not. The warming is all aloft Yes it did. 96 12z 108 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I really wouldn't focus all that much on model forecasts for sfc temps right now or take too much from them. How the sfc temperatures respond is really all going to depend on the strength, location, and track of the high to the north. However, south of the Pike and especially into CT it will be a little challenging to keep sfc temperatures cold enough, especially considering we should see some pretty decent WAA aloft. For CT (outside perhaps of the NW Hills) I wouldn't really expect much in the way of snow (no more than a few inches at most) and a quick transition to either sleet or freezing rain. There could be some parts of the state...maybe around BDL/Granby areas) that could perhaps get into some decent icing depends on what happens. We should see mainly sleet and then perhaps a brutally cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Toss these 2m especially way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Toss these 2m especially way inland. The Euro has been atrocious on SWFE surface temps down by NYC the last 2-3 winters. I don't know if its been the same up there but one event in December 2013 I think it had a 12 hour temp forecast of 44 at Newark and it verified at 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The Euro has been atrocious on SWFE surface temps down by NYC the last 2-3 winters. I don't know if its been the same up there but one event in December 2013 I think it had a 12 hour temp forecast of 44 at Newark and it verified at 21. That's an extreme case but I've seen that with every model in swfe's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Toss these 2m especially way inland.Akways surprises me folks that take those 2m temps verbatim.. But it still happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Akways surprises me folks that take those 2m temps verbatim.. But it still happensI don't see anyone taking them verbatim. You said that all the warming had been aloft and not at the surface and I posted model maps to show you are wrong. Didn't say anything about if I believe them or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I don't see anyone taking them verbatim. You said that all the warming had been aloft and not at the surface and I posted model maps to show you are wrong. Didn't say anything about if I believe them or not. I don't see anyone taking them verbatim. You said that all the warming had been aloft and not at the surface and I posted model maps to show you are wrong. Didn't say anything about if I believe them or not. But I think the point is that warmer aloft while often doesn't effect cool 2m temps in reality in model land it tends to always happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 But I think the point is that warmer aloft while often doesn't effect cool 2m temps in reality in model land it tends to always happen.Yeah i agree. Models will warm things top-down, but good luck penetrating the bottom 2000 feet when you have a high just northwest of the Allegash. So often the mid-level warming it depicts correctly but they gag on lower levels. Still anything can still happen. This high could trend east and we warm anyway. But as long as you keep the high in position Just N of ME or NH, we toss model 2m temps that try and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The Euro has been atrocious on SWFE surface temps down by NYC the last 2-3 winters. I don't know if its been the same up there but one event in December 2013 I think it had a 12 hour temp forecast of 44 at Newark and it verified at 21. I'd say the Euro has also been atrocious in coastal storms too. I've seen it forecast 1-2 feet here and in NYC with 24 hour lead time and end up with advisory level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GGEM is brutal for sne. Gotta stop the warm trend tonight before it starts to ruin the ski resorts nye/nyd plans.GEM sucks. Just jumped from a Foxboro, MA to Jackmen, ME bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Always the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I'd say the Euro has also been atrocious in coastal storms too. I've seen it forecast 1-2 feet here and in NYC with 24 hour lead time and end up with advisory level snow. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro is much further west with sfc low and high is sliding further east. This should be a warmer solution in all levels of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah this struggles to get me my measurable...lol. Some on the front end but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah this struggles to get me my measurable...lol. Some on the front end but that's it. Prob about 1-3 pike region and just a coating southwest of that. Still a lot of CAD so plenty of sleet and ZR but further south and along the coast you'd get more rain than previous solutions. The high position is the least favorable it's been since maybe 4 runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Congrats YUL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Congrats YUL Yeah sweet deformation band up there this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Fun to track while it lasted . Sigh. Oh well. Good luck NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GEM sucks. Just jumped from a Foxboro, MA to Jackmen, ME bullseye. And EC follows suit. Is what it is, bad start to winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Ugly run all around. Took me down from 12" to 2" at SLK and a similar haircut for a lot of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 This is why you don't fall in love with d7 solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 This is why you don't fall in love with d7 solutions. It was d5,d6,d7,d8...there was consistency let's be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Not suprising but I still think northern CT up here near the MA border would get a decent amount of IP/ZR in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 It was d5,d6,d7,d8...there was consistency let's be honest. His point is really that consistency beyond d5 is pretty meaningless. I think that has been rehashed many times on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Not suprising but I still think northern CT up here near the MA border would get a decent amount of IP/ZR in that setup. They do. If this was the actual final solution it's still mostly frozen for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 They do. If this was the actual final solution it's still mostly frozen for that area. Do you think there is any potential of a small to middle sized ice storm out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Good news we can enjoy Christmas with family instead of checking models. We can always hope for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Congrats YUL And YHZ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Good news we can enjoy Christmas with family instead of checking models. We can always hope for January. This is probably an overcorrection and in 24 hours it will move back the other way, for most people in this sub forum that changes things drastically if it swings slightly back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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