Late December miracle early next week!?

[OceanStWx]

Looks really similar at 84h. Not much help this run for getting back to snowier. But it at least appears we are not getting a warmer solution.

High is actually stronger this run but the primary is deeper and further north too so the two basically offset each other

 

It's amazing to see what the Euro does with the CAD across NNE. You can see the 850 mb temps respond as WAA moves in, it almost carves out around the U shaped damming across ME and NH.

 

Really a response to precip onset. At 06z it hasn't started up north yet, but by 12z it has and the cold dome locks in.

[SR Airglow]

Having seen the CMC at H7, the Euro has a different orientation to how it pushes the H7 warmth north. At 84 hours, it's got the 0c line oriented NW-SE from Massena to BOS while the CMC has it SW to NE across the Catskills and then due E across CNH/CVT. CMC says being north is somewhat better than being east while the Euro says being east is somewhat better than being north(and obviously being NE is the jackpot on both )

[ORH_wxman]

Having seen the CMC at H7, the Euro is substantially warmer for the same timeframe(84 hours).

I get the opposite conclusion on wsi graphics. GGEM is much further north wth 0c line at h7 at 84h. On euro is just SW of ORH and on GGEM it is up around LCI.

[SR Airglow]

I get the opposite conclusion on wsi graphics. GGEM is much further north wth 0c line at h7 at 84h. On euro is just SW of ORH and on GGEM it is up around LCI.

Looking at it closer it's more the orientation of the "punch" of warmth on the two models -- I edited my post above to reflect that. My bad.

[ORH_wxman]

It's amazing to see what the Euro does with the CAD across NNE. You can see the 850 mb temps respond as WAA moves in, it almost carves out around the U shaped damming across ME and NH.

Really a response to precip onset. At 06z it hasn't started up north yet, but by 12z it has and the cold dome locks in.

This will be an interesting forecast. Euro has BOS in danger of pellets already at 12z Tuesday while it is -7c at 850.

At any rate, I expect more 25 mile shifts that drive everyone insane.

[OceanStWx]

This will be an interesting forecast. Euro has BOS in danger of pellets already at 12z Tuesday while it is -7c at 850.

At any rate, I expect more 25 mile shifts that drive everyone insane.

 

Doesn't help that we're already being bombarded with "how much?" questions for Tuesday when we have headlines up for 24 hours from now.

[thomasnh]

I don't get where there these snow fall amounts are even coming from? My local met is saying mixed at best in SNH and maybe further north we may get measurable snow? The ground is to warm and doesn't matter , which is why there will be no measurable snow, since we go back to the 50's by New years year. Though my parents had a white Christmas in Pahrump NV. which was there first in a long time! Don't see a major change in the next 10 days unless some one can point me to a different solution?

[OceanStWx]

I don't get where there these snow fall amounts are even coming from? My local met is saying mixed at best in SNH and maybe further north we may get measurable snow? The ground is to warm and doesn't matter , which is why there will be no measurable snow, since we go back to the 50's by New years year. Though my parents had a white Christmas in Pahrump NV. which was there first in a long time! Don't see a major change in the next 10 days unless some one can point me to a different solution?

 

Maybe talking about different systems? NNE has tonight/Sunday to get through before the middle of next week. At this point I think the mix threat is higher in the next 24 hours than the midweek system.

[OceanStWx]

In the just for fun category, the 06z NAM is one helluva scalping for Dendrite. It's -5 or colder from 850 to the surface, but +1 around 775 mb. Stripping bark off the trees with that column.

[moneypitmike]

NWS is forecasting a mess up here.

 

Monday

Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of snow. Much cooler. Near steady temperature around 30. North winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

 

Monday Night

Snow. Lows around 20. Chance of snow 80 percent.

 

Tuesday

Snow with rain...sleet and freezing rain likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

 

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Near steady temperature around 30. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems interior SNE still doesn't sniff 32. I wonder if there;s an area of fairly significant icing?

[moneypitmike]

Seems interior SNE still doesn't sniff 32. I wonder if there;s an area of fairly significant icing?

 

Not saying it won't happen, but BOX disagrees.  For Tuesday:

 

KPIT--32*

KREV--37*

KORH-35*

KRAY-37*

 

It even has 1700' in the Heath, MA p/c at 32* on Tuesday.

[heavy_wx]

Those 00z GFS soundings are a bit of a red flag, even up this way. That DGZ is so high up that it's easy to lose saturation. Bufkit says +SN at GYX 18z Tuesday, but the DGZ is dry.

 

We would really want to make sure we have salt nuclei in there to get the dendrites growing at -6^oC.

 

Verbatim, the 06z GFS soundings are supersaturated with respect to ice but subsaturated with respect to liquid in the DGZ. It wouldn't shock me if there were some cloud-top convective generating cells Tuesday morning/afternoon as the GFS forecasts theta-e to increase very slowly or remain constant with height at this time, near or just below the DGZ. Those features might be able to grow some ice particles as dendrites aloft, increasing the efficiency of aggregation as they collect other types of ice particles.

 

I would expect ice nucleation at the colder temperatures given the supersaturated (w.r.t. ice) conditions up to and above 400 mb. With the most negative omega values around 650 mb (at KALB), temperatures of -7 to -3 C here would favor columns, plates, and more isometric particles as the dominant crystal habits growing in the profile. The liquid-saturated conditions at 650 mb and below suggest the potential for riming given the higher fall speeds of plates and isometric crystals vs. the fall speeds of dendrites. However, these particles will likely also aggregate as they fall into regions of temperatures near freezing.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not saying it won't happen, but BOX disagrees.  For Tuesday:

 

KPIT--32*

KREV--37*

KORH-35*

KRAY-37*

 

It even has 1700' in the Heath, MA p/c at 32* on Tuesday.

When I saw who was on the desk..that was all i needed to know

[HoarfrostHubb]

I plan on seeding the clouds of N ORH county

[Damage In Tolland]

Of all the weenie maps..the GFS always seems to be the worst offender. I think the most anyone sees in CT is an inch or 2 and the biggest issue will be icing

[moneypitmike]

In spite of the colder temps immediately leading up to the event, I would suspect the antecedent mild temps will work against (not eliminate) the icing potential.

[HoarfrostHubb]

When forky and Blizz are on the same icy page I pay attention

At least some frozen will satiate the weenies for a bit

Should set up a nice base

[CoastalWx]

I plan on seeding the clouds of N ORH county

 

Heavywx is referring to the dryslot. He's saying on Monday morning, it's possible that some convection may generate dendrites at the top of the clouds near Albany. But by then, the warm tongue cometh. 

[Damage In Tolland]

When forky and Blizz are on the same icy page I pay attention

At least some frozen will satiate the weenies for a bit

Should set up a nice base

I wish i was in your area. You'll do  well. There's going to be very little snow anywhere south of the Pike. This is one of those deals where models make you think it will start as snow..and you start as sleet and then go to zr

[HoarfrostHubb]

Heavywx is referring to the dryslot. He's saying on Monday morning, it's possible that some convection may generate dendrites at the top of the clouds near Albany. But by then, the warm tongue cometh.

Got to make hay while you can

[HoarfrostHubb]

I wish i was in your area. You'll do well. There's going to be very little snow anywhere south of the Pike. This is one of those deals where models make you think it will start as snow..and you start as sleet and then go to zr

I won't get amped up until Sunday night. I've seen this play before

Beware the warm tongue

[moneypitmike]

I wish i was in your area. You'll do  well. There's going to be very little snow anywhere south of the Pike. This is one of those deals where models make you think it will start as snow..and you start as sleet and then go to zr

 

Agreed--from Dave up through Whineminster should do about the best among the SNE posters I think.

[CoastalWx]

Hoping for a GFS type solution with a few inches here. Boston was still snow at 15z on the GFS. However the euro probably only gives a couple of

Inches. Both models argue for an intial burst of WAA thump, but the euro isncerybfast to bring in the warm air aloft. At least for now we seem to have stabilized the warming trend. We'll see if that continues, or will we have small variations on either side.

[Damage In Tolland]

Was hoping the colder trend we saw yesterday continued but it appears anyone south of ORH is oorked for more than inch of snow before ice. Ice is fine, but wanted to at least have the ground snowcovered next week locked in by ice

[powderfreak]

Agreed--from Dave up through Whineminster should do about the best among the SNE posters I think.

With how well your property holds cold air, you will do fine. You may be able to get into more QPF as snow with the initial thump too.

[CoastalWx]

With how well your property holds cold air, you will do fine. You may be able to get into more QPF as snow with the initial thump too.

 

Mr negative. 

 

Looks like a nice event to kick off a more official start to ski season.

[moneypitmike]

Mr negative. 

 

Looks like a nice event to kick off a more official start to ski season.

 

How was my comment negative????

 

I would love a couple ticks southward to keep more qpf as snow.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

With how well your property holds cold air, you will do fine. You may be able to get into more QPF as snow with the initial thump too.

His property only holds cold air in the summer unfortunately.

[moneypitmike]

With how well your property holds cold air, you will do fine. You may be able to get into more QPF as snow with the initial thump too.

 

I know this area does okay with that.  The CRV makes for a nice northerly drain and it backs up against the hills.  Hippy does really well in his locale with the CAD.   He sometimes changes over a little sooner, but he stays really cold and basks in the ice.