nj2va Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yes please on the pattern advertised by the 12z Euro ensembles towards the end of the run. Axis of the trough is in a good spot and an active STJ with plenty of cold air around. I'm really starting to like the window beginning on/around the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Like I said jan 5-10 range. Euro ens look excellent and so do the GEFS. Euro ens got colder at the end too vs last night. Very nice -AO/-EPO on the means. Decent storms popping d12-15. It's a step down for sure. Cold/dry spell followed by relax then cold wet...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Agreeded, and on a side note, HM's thread over at Twitter is a positive one with dicussions about the NAO going down and other goodies. Things are certainly progressing nicely. what's hm's Twitter name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 what's hm's Twitter name? https://twitter.com/antmasiello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Only so long it can stay warm with a massive + height anomaly over Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Only so long it can stay warm with a massive + height anomaly over Alaska. Didn't we say that the last few years when the EPO locked in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Hopefully the progression lets us get a storm - at least a small one before the usual good climo period in a stronger nino...we had a decent clipper 1/5/2003, and a smaller one 1/7/2010...also a very nice coastal on 1/7/88 though I think pos AO.....waiting until the 3rd week of January would be annoying,...usually a clipper pattern we have a low anomaly to our north/northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Hopefully the progression lets us get a storm - at least a small one before the usual good climo period in a stronger nino...we had a decent clipper 1/5/2003, and a smaller one 1/7/2010...also a very nice coastal on 1/7/88 though I think pos AO.....waiting until the 3rd week of January would be annoying,...usually a clipper pattern we have a low anomaly to our north/northeast Weeklies show the best pattern since 09-10 during week 3. It looks like a light version of 09-10. Week 4 relaxes the blocked look and epo. Still a standard Nino setup but not a cold or big storm one. Hard to put a lot of stock in the weeklies. They are jumping around because of the major LW shift currently in progress. Taking all guidance into consideration, it seems like our chances for a decent Jan storm are higher than normal. 7 day mean is acceptable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Weeklies show the best pattern since 09-10 during week 3. It looks like a light version of 09-10. Week 4 relaxes the blocked look and epo. Still a standard Nino setup but not a cold or big storm one. Hard to put a lot of stock in the weeklies. They are jumping around because of the major LW shift currently in progress. Taking all guidance into consideration, it seems like our chances for a decent Jan storm are higher than normal. 7 day mean is acceptable... week3.JPG Thats a really good pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The EPS in the long range has me salivating a little bit. Split flow, -AO and -NAO. Who knows if there will be any Lows on the southern stream. But if there are its game on with the setup being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Weeklies show the best pattern since 09-10 during week 3. It looks like a light version of 09-10. Week 4 relaxes the blocked look and epo. Still a standard Nino setup but not a cold or big storm one. Hard to put a lot of stock in the weeklies. They are jumping around because of the major LW shift currently in progress. Taking all guidance into consideration, it seems like our chances for a decent Jan storm are higher than normal. 7 day mean is acceptable... week3.JPG That's pretty sweet looking. Yeah, kinda acceptable, I suppose! Even if the weeklies at week 4 are correct or mostly correct, I don't think we'll necessarily "flip" back to what we're coming out of or otherwise into another totally putrid pattern. I suspect nothing is going to "lock in" for a long period of time, but I also would not expect that we're "done" if/when things do relax again at some point. All speculation, to be honest...or perhaps a bit of weenie hope that we'll be OK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The EPS in the long range has me salivating a little bit. Split flow, -AO and -NAO. Who knows if there will be any Lows on the southern stream. But if there are its game on with the setup being advertised. What I liked is that the EPS SLP mean advertised a few lows along the EC during that time. I'm at least encouraged that at least there's something on the means which is all we could ask for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Euro ens look excellent and so do the GEFS. Euro ens got colder at the end too vs last night. Very nice -AO/-EPO on the means. Decent storms popping d12-15. It's a step down for sure. Cold/dry spell followed by relax then cold wet...lol What if the biggest storm of all time came out of it? What would you think? I know you and Ian do a great job of laying out probabilities and analogs, but are they perfect? Would you be totally surprised by something non-analogolous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 What if the biggest storm of all time came out of it? What would you think? I know you and Ian do a great job of laying out probabilities and analogs, but are they perfect? Would you be totally surprised by something non-analogolous? I wouldn't be surprised by anything that fits the long wave setup in place. To me, surprises are events that don't fit the mold. With that being said, big events require so so much to come together at just the right time. They have to move slow so impressive anomalies have to get in the way downstream. Almost all big dogs require a phase of the streams. And the phase has to happen at the perfect time for wherever the big winner is. Timing of the phase is so tight that a 12 hour or less difference in timing is make or break. Absolute perfect windows can easily fail too. Assuming all the globals have the right idea, it's looking like we have above average chances at accum snow coming up. That's all I got. If we get into medium range and a powder keg setup shows up there will be a stadium of people talking about it One thing I thought about tonight when looking at the weeklies was the relaxation going into week 4. Most of our good storms come when the ao/nao transitions from negative to positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Weeklies look best about the Jan 10-15 range to me. Maybe thru the 20th. Oddly the monthlies seemed to like Jan more than Feb for a while. The lakes blob is trying to come back at the end. This Nino is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Weeklies look best about the Jan 10-15 range to me. Maybe thru the 20th. Oddly the monthlies seemed to like Jan more than Feb for a while. The lakes blob is trying to come back at the end. This Nino is weird. Hmmm, wonder if peak snow climo is not February this year. Maybe largest accumulating snows happen in January and March. You would think logically that there would be relaxation later January into early February and then the hammer comes down mid February to early March, typical targeting of near Pres day, as is the case many times in Nino years. Or, maybe we are due this year for an early March blizzard. Fascinating to see unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Hmmm, wonder if peak snow climo is not February this year. Maybe largest accumulating snows happen in January and March. You would think logically that there would be relaxation later January into early February and then the hammer comes down mid February to early March, typical targeting of near Pres day, as is the case many times in Nino years. Or, maybe we are due this year for an early March blizzard. Fascinating to see unfold. That'd be hard to bite on at this point but it's not impossible that Jan would be better I suppose. The Nino is fitting into a lot of general patterns but in some ways it's an oddball. That Kara Sea ridge forecast is pretty insane in any season let alone a strong Nino. But there's no really cold air to tap anywhere.. I think we're looking at mainly storm influenced/climo cold ahead rather than deep freeze. I'd still worry about playing with the southern jet too heavily.. there's plenty of 'warm' air in that stream. It does look interesting ahead at the least. Gotta start somewhere if we want to get anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 That'd be hard to bite on at this point but it's not impossible that Jan would be better I suppose. The Nino is fitting into a lot of general patterns but in some ways it's an oddball. That Kara Sea ridge forecast is pretty insane in any season let alone a strong Nino. But there's no really cold air to tap anywhere.. I think we're looking at mainly storm influenced/climo cold ahead rather than deep freeze. I'd still worry about playing with the southern jet too heavily.. there's plenty of 'warm' air in that stream. It does look interesting ahead at the least. Gotta start somewhere if we want to get anywhere. All true, I also wonder whether the declining QBO and after a relaxation period if we do not indeed set up for a direct arctic discharge in February, combined with an overrunning threat or Miller A , leading to a memorable event. Give some time for the cold to intensify I mean, maybe get some cross polar flow prior, it will take time but you never know. We do not have to have bitter cold to get a MECS, although over running at 10 degrees F would be really cool . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Could the warm waters of the Pacific outside the typical Nino zone be influencing atmospheric behavior as well, hence the lack of typical Nino features? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Weeklies look best about the Jan 10-15 range to me. Maybe thru the 20th. Oddly the monthlies seemed to like Jan more than Feb for a while. The lakes blob is trying to come back at the end. This Nino is weird.Recall the Canadian monthlies out 12/1 liked January more than February too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Could the warm waters of the Pacific outside the typical Nino zone be influencing atmospheric behavior as well, hence the lack of typical Nino features?Maybe, but good luck trying to prove it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Very gorgeous LR GFS run, starting to get giddy folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Could the warm waters of the Pacific outside the typical Nino zone be influencing atmospheric behavior as well, hence the lack of typical Nino features? Bingo!! Its just not the equatorial Pacific thats warm relative to normal almost all of the Pacific especiall west coast and Gulf of Alaska is warm. Hence a very strong flow crushing PAC NW instead of say the traditional southern Cali route. All in all aside drought continues in southern Cali even wildfires too. I believe this too in the new pattern will change with an undercutting storm track into central and southern Cali and when that happens look out East Coast for snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Could the warm waters of the Pacific outside the typical Nino zone be influencing atmospheric behavior as well, hence the lack of typical Nino features? I think many times we see this happen or also see the lag effect. 1995-96 and 2010-11 may have behaved somewhat like El Ninos because they were preceeded by El Ninos and in the case of 95-96 4 of the previous 5 years more or less were El Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Too bad the Euro stops at 240... that last frame had me drooling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Too bad the Euro stops at 240... that last frame had me drooling... agreed. looks pretty nice. trying not to get too hopeful on such a sweet pattern flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Very gorgeous LR GFS run, starting to get giddy folks. Yes, very nice run...00Z and 06Z. The GEFS mean shows it even better, amplified +PNA ridge and stronger indications of -NAO blocking. The NAO appears more emphatic, at least, in the mean...I'm going by the "notch" of ridging that's been appearing over Greenland for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Euro and GFS are in amazing agreement at this range on the big players PNA/AO/NAO/EPO and STJ energy undercutting the ridge. Gotta figure that at some point with this projected pattern some of the arctic energy will link up with STJ energy and make the turn up the coast, but trying to differentiate those shortwaves at this range is futile. It's really gonna get fun to watch these models inside 5 days when they start to get a handle on the shortwave timing. Jan 8-15 looks like the first window of above normal shot at a snowstorm, and what a great time of year climo wise to see a favorable pattern develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Wow, getting so excited for this modeled pattern! At least the pattern will be sweet even if the results on the ground are 40s and clouds. Could be the best pattern since the last epic pattern. Yup, this pattern has "good model runs" written all over it; I'm stoked and plan to stay up late to see the pattern on the Euro. I bet we'll be seeing some seriously seasonal temps and intense high clouds showing up in the 10 day range before we know it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Hmmm, wonder if peak snow climo is not February this year. Maybe largest accumulating snows happen in January and March. You would think logically that there would be relaxation later January into early February and then the hammer comes down mid February to early March, typical targeting of near Pres day, as is the case many times in Nino years. Or, maybe we are due this year for an early March blizzard. Fascinating to see unfold. I've been hanging my hat on February all along- so many of the Nino years have at least one good 6+" event in February (and sometimes its the only event of the winter): 1958, 1964, 1966, 1983, 1987, 1995, 2003, 2010, etc. Of course some are disasters the whole way through (1992, 1998, 1973, etc.) but I hope we can score at least one big (6+") event. If we can do that I consider it an ok/acceptable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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