North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 It might be warm. It might be cold. It might rain. It might snow. Discuss the models here as they intersect with January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 It might be warm. It might be cold. It might rain. It might snow. Discuss the models here as they intersect with January. 100% chance of weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 No way it's December redux...it would be nearly impossible to recreate that level of winter month epic fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Well it will be very hard to pull a +10 like we might have this month but a +5 is certainly possible. Hopefully we get more than two or threes days with below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Well it will be very hard to pull a +10 like we might have this month but a +5 is certainly possible. Hopefully we get more than two or threes days with below normal temps. Yea, tough to say. I would be surprised if we didn't close the first week above normal temp wise but probably not extreme. Beyond that...practically impossible to know. If the Dec pattern reloads the entire board will be unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Looking colder at the end of the run. The changes they are a comin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Yea, tough to say. I would be surprised if we didn't close the first week above normal temp wise but probably not extreme. Beyond that...practically impossible to know. If the Dec pattern reloads the entire board will be unreadable. You know a head fake of some sort, probably short lived, is coming first week or two of Jan, that will make things really fun around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Yes, I think so, though IMO it is far more important to get a favorable PAC pattern than have Atlantic cooperation. If the PAC is hostile, we're cooked. What I think we'd like to see is a favorable PAC (PNA & EPO) then a neutral to negative AO and then the miracle of miracles NAO. We need to turn off the western fire hose, build cold in our source region, and then get a mechanism to deliver the goods.Canada has decent snow, and parts that don't now will in a week. We're good, but I still think odds favor 1/15 or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Canada has decent snow, and parts that don't now will in a week. We're good, but I still think odds favor 1/15 or later. Probably so but that's okay. The major reversals that took place during January of 1987, 2000, 2005, and 2007 all took place around the 18th or so. 1983 wasn't really a reversal just a really lucky week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Fairly significant shift in the npac on the eps overnight. This is getting interesting. Aleutian low goa/western ridge signal was pretty strong. Below normal heights showng in the gulf of Mex and dare I say normal heights here. Woah. Mean 850 panels say we could actually be in the game during the first week of Jan but it will take some luck with the perpetual hostile N atl. Good stuff and ahead of schedule it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Fairly significant shift in the npac on the eps overnight. This is getting interesting. Aleutian low goa/western ridge signal was pretty strong. Below normal heights showng in the gulf of Mex and dare I say normal heights here. Woah. Mean 850 panels say we could actually be in the game during the first week of Jan but it will take some luck with the perpetual hostile N atl. Good stuff and ahead of schedule it seem. Bob let's hope it's a solid signal that remains in that time frame vs disappearing or getting pushed back over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Bob let's hope it's a solid signal that remains in that time frame vs disappearing or getting pushed back over and over again. It's not only staying put in time but moving forward. Weird. Assuming it actually happens....is it transient or the real nino deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 It's not only staying put in time but moving forward. Weird. Assuming it actually happens....is it transient or the real nino deal? Maybe it's just the EPS teasing us because it's the anniversary of 12/19/2009 I'm going to keep myself from getting too excited until it's closer of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Yea, tough to say. I would be surprised if we didn't close the first week above normal temp wise but probably not extreme. Beyond that...practically impossible to know. If the Dec pattern reloads the entire board will be unreadable. Bob, That's pretty much my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Bob, That's pretty much my take. What do you think about last night's euro ens run? That was a big change for the euro. Very prominent low height anomaly south of the Aleutians almost exactly where we like to see it. The big orange blob to our NE much weaker on the means as well. I went back and checked the weeklies. The pattern on the euro ens right now isn't on any day during weeks 3-4. Weeklies kept the low height anomaly in the SW conus through the end. Euro ens showing it in the gulf of Mexico with normal heights here. Still a crappy atl though but the best pattern I've seen advertised in the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Bobchill, im no expert like you guys but how will mjo play a role? I mean if it goes into cod will it emerge in warm phases? If it does we screwed.Im hoping to see enough warming for displacement of pv also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 One more thing...how will we get a -nao if atlantic isnt set up for one? Or is it? Thanks kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Bobchill, im no expert like you guys but how will mjo play a role? I mean if it goes into cod will it emerge in warm phases? If it does we screwed.Im hoping to see enough warming for displacement of pv also You better hope for 1000ft/lbs of mountain torque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 You better hope for 1000ft/lbs of mountain torque Lol. Don't forget some Hadley waves and Kelvin cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Bobchill, im no expert like you guys but how will mjo play a role? I mean if it goes into cod will it emerge in warm phases? If it does we screwed.Im hoping to see enough warming for displacement of pv also I wouldn't worry much about the mjo. It don't have a strong understanding of how it works but if it's weak then other things play a much more important role. Sometimes even when the numerical index says one thing, the actual pressure patterns say something different. With that being said, the euro ens show a decline in strength and a push towards either phase 8 or the cod. Both of which are fine. Could it emerge in warm phases and screw us in Jan? Sure but nothing to worry about until it's actually happening or guidance is clustered with an unfavorable forecast. As far as the nao goes, we don't need a big static blocking event. That can actually be bad just like a big positive phase like we're seeing now. Of course I'd take a blocking event over what we have now but an active nao is preferable. Basically root for as many phase changes as possible. I ran a bunch of daily graphs for our big storms. They tend to occur during a phase change vs a big negative phase. If you believe the Gefs, the nao is trending towards neutral with much less hostility in the pattern. It's a really tough index to forecast. Since any chance at snow for us is far beyond any accurate guidance we can just wait it out and not worry much one way or the other. Also, the npac is more imortant than the nao/ao. A hostile npac can make a favorable ao/nao totally useless here. Otoh- a favorable npac can produce with a hostile ao/nao. The promised land is when they both come together. 09-10 was a perfect combo but super rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Lol. Don't forget some Hadley waves and Kelvin cells. and some geo-engineering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 What do you think about last night's euro ens run? That was a big change for the euro. Very prominent low height anomaly south of the Aleutians almost exactly where we like to see it. The big orange blob to our NE much weaker on the means as well. I went back and checked the weeklies. The pattern on the euro ens right now isn't on any day during weeks 3-4. Weeklies kept the low height anomaly in the SW conus through the end. Euro ens showing it in the gulf of Mexico with normal heights here. Still a crappy atl though but the best pattern I've seen advertised in the last month. Bob, It's a step forward if it holds for a few more runs. The positive AO would probably still have us average above normal for temps but with nice cold shots between the warm ones if the forecast pattern hold, a big if. As to the question someone asked about the MJO. When a strong Le nino is present, it rarely has much of an impact. I grabbed this from MJO talk that someoene gave years ago on MJO variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Thanks for the graph Wes. I knew the MJO had less influence during strong Nino's but didnt know how the other indicies lined up regarding what was most helpful. With a largely absent -NAO last year, we pulled it off, but with the NINO coming off its HIGH horse, I guess its fair to say that we can do it again without, but IMO the -AO would be a larger player...NO? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Euro has a potent storm end of run.. cuts but maybe we could get some tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Euro has a potent storm end of run.. cuts but maybe we could get some tornadoes. Yoda, how many jewels of Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Nut lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 It's an op but if the Euro was right can sort of envision an opening for an EC event sometime early Jan. Keep dragging the baroclinic zone east as storms keep rolling. Already next in train coming into SW as that storm is pushing away and helping shift up the Atlantic a bit. Overall pattern at D10 is somewhat close to snowy Jan looks in strong Nino. Again it's an op but this run was kind of interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Euro has a potent storm end of run.. cuts but maybe we could get some tornadoes. One 0z euro ens member flush hits us with that storm as a miller A. So statistically we have a 1 in 52 chance at that happening right now. Plenty of time to improve the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Still no real signs of an STJ in the Pacific, just one big firehose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Greenland torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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