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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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I think that this is likely to deviate to the right of the forecast track up until landfall. Satellite data over the past few hours indicate that the trend is not a jog, but rather a definite turn to the north-northeast and eventually northeast. Layer mean analysis at 500-850 mb indicates southwest to northeast flow as the mid-level jet becomes more zonal, so Patricia is likely beginning a sharp turn to the northeast, much as Charley did in 2004, that would bring the center to the coast within 20-30 mi of Manzanillo.

I just told my brother in law with a house in Puerto Vallarta that he should make out relatively well for that precise region.

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I really don't think it's possible to overstate the intensity of this system. It's not like you could over-prepare for a 175-kt storm.

Yea, sorry, but I could not stress enough to my sister and bro in law the severity of the situation at hand.

My apologies mapgirl...

Hopefully it keeps jogging east as I feel it may.

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The east jog has not let up, on a steady course a few degrees left of northeast the last few hours.

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With the current trends Manzanillo would appear to be in a very bad spot.They seem likely to miss the eyewall but they will still have a rough time.

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Josh is going to start heading further S to check out other options. We were hoping that landfall was going to be later and allow plenty of recon data to fine tune but the latest trends warrants possibly relocating.

 

Agreed.

 

In fact, the town of San Patricio may be near the point of landfall.

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Early call: landfall around 20Z ~20 mi W of Manzanillo at 155 kt with major wind/surge destruction to the east of the center.

 

I'm thinking Melaque.  Manzanillo should get smacked pretty good, but not with the brunt unless it shifts further east.

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Agreed.

 

In fact, the town of San Patricio may be near the point of landfall.

looks like it might even be manzanillo

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At 175kts, you have to imagine it has peaked. The slight warming around the eye versus the mindboggling presentation earlier may be more due to the diurnal minimum than internal fluctuations right now. Even though there is currently no sign of an impending ERC, you really want that to begin asap for some kind of weakening to occur. I can't imagine this making landfall at its current intensity, but you really do want to hope it can weaken soon. Hard to fathom that kind of sustained wind directly into harbors and inlets that will be impacted by the eastern and southeastern eyewall. It's still a very compact windfield, so where as some areas will have complete devastation, others merely 10-15 miles away from the eyewall may not get winds higher than cat 1 force. Josh better be extra careful with this one. To say flying debris will be a problem would be an understatement.

Sent from my LG G4.

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looks like it might even be manzanillo

I didn't want to be the first to say it, extrapolating the current motion would put it very close.

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Some reduction in intensity before landfall even without an ERC would be expected. Cannot expect a storm to maintain such an exteme intensity for very long.Regardless, the short time before landfall virtually guarantees a devastating hit to where it comes ashore.

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I think it may now be trending a bit less northeasterly and the landfall may be close to Melaque which would be

 

19.2 N 104.7 W

 

from current position of about 18.0 N 105.1 W

 

intermediate position would therefore be 18.6 N 104.9 W for tracking purposes.

 

There are probably going to be more wobbles, expect that there could be one northward jog before landfall to reduce chances of going as far east as Manzanillo (could be La Manzanilla instead, that's a bit west of Melaque).

 

If this is correct Josh (if at San Mateo) and Punta Perula will be spared cat-5 conditions and might only see cat-2 northeast winds at peak.

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At 175kts, you have to imagine it has peaked. The slight warming around the eye versus the mindboggling presentation earlier may be more due to the diurnal minimum than internal fluctuations right now. Even though there is currently no sign of an impending ERC, you really want that to happen asap for some kind of weakening to occur. I can't imagine this making landfall at its current intensity, but you really do want to hope it can weaken soon. Hard to fathom that kind of sustained wind directly into harbors and inlets that will be impacted by the eastern and southeastern eyewall. It's still a very compact windfield, so where as some areas will have complete devastation, others merely 10-15 miles away from the eyewall may not get winds higher than cat 1 force. Josh better be extra careful with this one. To say flying debris will be a problem would be an understatement.

Sent from my LG G4.

 

That's what I was thinking, as well.

 

Having an ERC may even be worse than not having one, because it would allow the wind field to expand more. While the overall winds would be weaker, it would still be an incredibly strong storm at landfall even if an ERC occurred.

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