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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015

1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

There has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia

since the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane.

Based on this, the initial intensity remains 175 kt. Some

fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is

expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane

in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours. After landfall, a

combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing

shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system

likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours.

The hurricane has turned northward since the previous advisory

and the initial motion is now 005/9. Patricia is about to

recurve into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its

east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the

southwestern U. S. These features should steer the cyclone

generally north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico

until dissipation occurs. The new forecast track is an update of

the previous track.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone

near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be

non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw

significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could

result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern

Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to

statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for

details.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the

hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely

dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.

Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning

area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as

tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area. Residents

in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area

should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be

catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes

landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is

likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the

Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing

into Saturday.

3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very

small area near the center - about 15 miles across. A NOAA

Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia

before landfall to see what changes in intensity and structure have

occurred.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH

12H 24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W 130 KT 150 MPH...INLAND

24H 24/1200Z 22.9N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

36H 25/0000Z 25.7N 101.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Beven

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where exactly is that?  I'm having a hard time finding that...google maps keeps taking me to the town in central mexico and i don't think he'd go there lol

 

 Try La Huerta. It's just S of La Fortuna on 200.

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given how we've had Hayian and now Patricia going "off the charts", has there been any talk of revising the charts to reflect  these possibilities becoming real now?

 

 

It's also worth noting thaf Patricia has been running above what at least the SHIPS had as its maximum potential intensity, which has been running 170-171kt. 

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 Try La Huerta. It's just S of La Fortuna on 200.

ah there it is..thanks so much.  man i hope they find something better than what i'm seeing on street view.

 

 

 

3. REMARKS: BOTH THE NOAA P-3 AND NASA WB-57 ARE FLYING MISSIONS ON HURRICANE PATRICIA TODAY AS DETAILED ON TCPOD 15-149.

TCPOD NUMBER.....15-149

1. HURRICANE PATRICIA

FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 

A. 23/1800Z 

B. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA 

C. 23/1430Z 

D. 18.0N 105.5W 

E. 23/1730Z TO 22/2030Z 

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. 

Hopefully we'll get some radar data this time.

 

No eyewall replacement. This is likely going in as is

Just think..it could weaken by 35 knots and still be a cat 5...it really is breath taking to consider just how strong it is.

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ah there it is..thanks so much.  man i hope they find something better than what i'm seeing on street view.

 

 

 

Hopefully we'll get some radar data this time.

 

Just think..it could weaken by 35 knots and still be a cat 5...it really is breath taking to consider just how strong it is.

 

 

During the record breaking center pass

 

ScreenHunter_203%20Oct.%2023%2011.13.png

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This is running right of the cone in a very Charley-esque way.  If I'm in Manzanillo, I'm quite nervous.

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Considering the continued warming and contraction of the small eye, the incoming mission may well find a pressure in the upper 870s, likely in the range of 877-879 mb. This may well be as strong as it was at the time of last night's historic final pass, though peak intensity likely occurred some hours earlier. My guess is that the winds in post-analysis will be bumped up to 180 kt, based on SFMR data and the possible findings of this mission.

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Has anyone else been saying "Holy Sh*t" out loud to themselves all morning?

 

No, but I deff woke my girlfriend up like 3 times between 6 and 7am with overly excited and unsolicited updates :-)

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This is running right of the cone in a very Charley-esque way.  If I'm in Manzanillo, I'm quite nervous.

It might just be a wobble, but if this goes further right/east than expected, it could be really bad for people living in places like Manzanillo. I would seriously hope most people have evacuated there, because that sort of unexpected turn into more populated areas could be devastating.

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No, but I deff woke my girlfriend up like 3 times between 6 and 7am with overly excited and unsolicited updates :-)

 

Wow you sound like a hot date.

 

Even if this thing weakens 50 mph, we're talking about enormous damage. How high can the surge get in that region of Mexico? Could the small size help reduce a massive surge? Think Charley 2004.

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No ERC.....jesus.

Cat 6.

 

Looks a hair less impressive on latest IR to me.

 

Ray -- I know you are kidding when you say Cat 6, because no such category exists, but there are over 100 guests viewing this thread right now... perhaps best not to get too exaggerated for fear of giving non-weather obsessed people like ourselves the wrong information

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I think that this is likely to deviate to the right of the forecast track up until landfall. Satellite data over the past few hours indicate that the trend is not a jog, but rather a definite turn to the north-northeast and eventually northeast. Layer mean analysis at 500-850 mb indicates southwest to northeast flow as the mid-level jet becomes more zonal, so Patricia is likely beginning a sharp turn to the northeast, much as Charley did in 2004, that would bring the center to the coast within 20-30 mi of Manzanillo.

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Ray -- I know you are kidding when you say Cat 6, because no such category exists, but there are over 100 guests viewing this thread right now... perhaps best not to get too exaggerated for fear of giving non-weather obsessed people like ourselves the wrong information

CAT 5 +?

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Josh is going to start heading further S to check out other options. We were hoping that landfall was going to be later and allow plenty of recon data to fine tune but the latest trends warrants possibly relocating.

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Ray -- I know you are kidding when you say Cat 6, because no such category exists, but there are over 100 guests viewing this thread right now... perhaps best not to get too exaggerated for fear of giving non-weather obsessed people like ourselves the wrong information

That is not exaggerating.

I any event, I think the greater risk is having some in remote areas not entirely grasping the magnitude of the threat at hand.

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