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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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886 (if that's what they officially go with) would pass Gilbert, with only Wilma left in front.

At this rate, it might have its sights on Typhoon Tip...although highly unlikely to achieve that intensity prior to a probable ERC. But, at this point, who knows?! Lol

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Allen's record estimated 170 kt surface winds occurred when the flight level winds were 165 kt just for reference.

Based on improved methodologies since then, reanalysis will likely lower Allen's peak about 10 kt or so.

 

The upcoming third pass will likely show Patricia tied with or lower than Wilma. I hope that the crew is getting images, considering the nice moon tonight and intense eyewall lightning...

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Allen's record estimated 170 kt surface winds occurred when the flight level winds were 165 kt just for reference.

Good point, OSU! It will be interesting to see what the NHC lists as the peak MSW in post-season analysis...as the absolute peak intensity may occur prior to the issuance of their 4 am CDT advisory. Then again, it may continue to strengthen up till or past that point. Either way, this could be the record setter for MSW.

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Doesn't quite work that way since violent tornadoes also have very strong vertical velocities (counteracting gravity) in addition to the horizontal velocities, making them much more destructive over the areas they affect.

 

Lifting the debris.  Of course...and we're talking about small vortices.  The tradeoff is storm surge and flying debris staying near the ground in a hurricane. However, the force and energy of the wind makes such an eyewall an eraser.

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So much for any of us getting much sleep tonight! :)

Edit: This may go without saying, but it's important not to misunderstand my fascination with this incredible event to suggest I wish it to intensify further. I do not, and generally hope it weakens as much as possible prior to landfall. This will inevitably take a number of lives, unfortunately! :(

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ATCF has 165 kt/886 mb for the 06Z fix. This makes Patricia only the third case in which the NHC operationally (in its advisories) classed a cyclone at 165 kt or higher, after Camille and Allen. Patricia now only has to conquer Wilma's 882 mb for the Western Hemispheric record, which I think is a very good likelihood.

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So much for any of us getting much sleep tonight! :)

 

Only TWC appears asleep.  This is almost more embarrassing for them then the ice storm that shut down their hometown and turned the I85-I75 corridor into a skating rink in downtown ATL/

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Only TWC appears asleep.  This is almost more embarrassing for them then the ice storm that shut down their hometown and turned the I85-I75 corridor into a skating rink in downtown ATL/

I was thinking recently that I do not believe the Weather Channel has ever sent an on air crew to cover a hurricane outside the United States.

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ATCF has 165 kt/886 mb for the 06Z fix. This makes Patricia only the third case in which the NHC operationally (in its advisories) classed a cyclone at 165 kt or higher, after Camille and Allen. Patricia now only has to conquer Wilma's 882 mb for the Western Hemispheric record, which I think is a very good likelihood.

It also has better evidence to be that speed or even higher than those storms did.

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192kt flight level, 885.2mb extrap, 165/175kt SFMR but flagged/missing the 2 highest SFMR values.

064400 1633N 10533W 6972 02718 9576 +114 +114 003139 150 144 027 03

064430 1633N 10531W 6942 02582 9417 +121 //// 359161 166 175 056 05

064500 1633N 10530W 6996 02289 //// +140 //// 356096 165 /// /// 05

064530 1633N 10528W 6980 02192 8931 +218 +111 352029 060 057 007 00

064600 1633N 10526W 6991 02133 8852 +276 +073 151006 020 046 003 00

064630 1634N 10524W 7025 02094 8879 +249 +112 150076 109 042 001 03

064700 1636N 10523W 7043 02266 9206 +134 //// 145173 192 /// /// 05

064730 1637N 10522W 7081 02467 //// +106 //// 139164 173 165 006 05

064800 1638N 10521W 6990 02712 //// +112 //// 136142 155 136 003 05

064830 1639N 10520W 6958 02834 9651 +119 +117 139122 134 108 000 05

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192 FL with all those 170 kts + SFMR are really indicative of a 170 kts storm...especially considering it's probably still intensifying.

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I was thinking recently that I do not believe the Weather Channel has ever sent an on air crew to cover a hurricane outside the United States.

Not to distract from the far more important topic of this thread, but I have thus far resisted the urge to chase on the SW coast of Mexico due to my unfamiliarity with the area and its topography. This may be one of the reasons that TWC (aside from the obvious issue of ratings being influenced far greater by NATL basin activity for the average viewer) hasn't done the same.

On a related note, it's helpful that Josh has some familiarity with the area and isn't chasing this incredibly dangerous storm alone...although anything can happen in a category-five hurricane. With that in mind, my most heartfelt prayers are with him and all the others in harms way!

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Not to distract from the far more important topic of this thread, but I have thus far resisted the urge to chase on the SW coast of Mexico due to my unfamiliarity with the area and its topography. This may be one of the reasons that TWC (aside from the obvious issue of ratings being influenced far greater by NATL basin activity for the average viewer) hasn't done the same.

On a related note, it's helpful that Josh has some familiarity with the area and isn't chasing this incredibly dangerous storm alone...although anything can happen in a category-five hurricane. With that in mind, my most heartfelt prayers are with him and all the others in harms way!

 

There's really not that much between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.  Some smallish towns here and there, but not much on the coast itself.  Hopefully this thing comes ashore in the least populated area.  Any slight deviations north or south of the current forecast would be pretty devastating to either of the larger cities. 

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sonde 885mb with 41kts surface...that's about *drumroll* 881mb!!

 

I think recon is just going to miss the peak of this.  It could intensify for a while longer after they leave.

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000

URPN12 KNHC 230703

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202015

A. 23/06:46:00Z

B. 16 deg 33 min N

105 deg 26 min W

C. 700 mb 2113 m

D. 175 kt

E. 264 deg 5 nm

F. 358 deg 166 kt

G. 264 deg 5 nm

H. 885 mb

I. 12 C / 3073 m

J. 29 C / 3026 m

K. 8 C / NA

L. CLOSED

M. C7

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm

P. AF303 0320E PATRICIA OB 19

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 192 KT 053 / 3 NM 06:47:10Z

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 135 / 41 KT

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At this point, it's looking increasingly unlikely a category-five landfall is avoidable despite the mitigating factors I've mentioned that should cause some weakening prior to landfall.

What an awesome display of intensification...far exceeding anything any of us has ever seen...or may ever see again, for that matter!

Words are now inadequate to describe this exhibition of rapid intensification!

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So if this goes into the 870s, only four super typhoons have ever done that.

 

Would really love to see a recon pass with that.

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