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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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Had a look on google earth, the predicted landfall is near Chalacatepec which is a sandy spit along a 50-100 mile stretch of largely unpopulated coastline with sandy beaches, inland lagoons and a slowly rising but essentially flat low-density farmland. A small town about 20 miles inland, Campo Acosta, might still have cat-4 conditions during landfall if the track verifies.

Perula (where I understand Josh is located) is on a south-facing bay about 50 miles east of the predicted landfall zone, and I would expect cat-3 conditions there with a large storm surge likely (15-25 ft) despite some disruption from islands offshore. It would appear that Perula is about that high up above tide level on an elevated sandy spit and one might assume that a storm surge might create some areas of waist-deep water or up to second storey level on streets closest to the beachfront, but if the track veers a bit west this outcome might be averted. If the track curves around a bit more than expected, this would become a very unsafe location as storm surge could run to 30 feet in some areas between the eyewall and this location (but as mentioned, only sandy beaches and isolated farmhouses or tourist huts shown on the map in the impact zone).

From landfall, the gradually decaying hurricane will have to cross a fairly high range of hills as it moves northeast past the large city of Guadlajara where (Saturday) conditions will peak at strong tropical storm 50-80 mph and perhaps 5 inches of rainfall. Considerably worse conditions are likely in the zone along Mexican route 80 running southwest to the coast, and this is where mudslides might be most likely given the more rolling terrain.

If this thread happens to be read by anyone with any interests in emergency management in the area, two things come to mind -- the storm is going to have a devastating eye and regions 25-50 miles east from its landfall and 25-50 miles inland may sustain severe damage. Anyone in an isolated location within 25 feet (8 metres) of sea level in that zone should be advised to move far inland to a safer location. Conditions on the west side of the track will improve considerably faster than on the east side. Puerto Vallarta on this forecast track should see something like cat-1 or low end cat-2 winds from northeast (inland direction) and only moderate storm surges.

Fantastic post, Roger!

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Still anticipate. ..and certainly hope...Patricia will weaken some prior to landfall. My current expectation is a landfall intensity in the 140-155 knot range...if it stays offshore longer than 15 hours and undergoes an ERC. Just can't see a 160 knot landfall at this point, but I may adjust my thinking if current trends continue.

Edit: I know I keep reiterating essentially the same thing for I just can't see increasing shear and interaction with mountainous terrain not causing some weakening prior to landfall...even without an ERC. Of course, no one foresaw this remarkable increase in intensity, either.

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HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015

400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate

that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and

SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia

the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's

area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the

eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure

estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for

our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could

occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery

shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend

toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the

intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast

shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the

very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after

landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than

predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning

toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The

track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should

continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level

anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to

the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is

somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between

the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone

near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted

upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.

However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of

moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally

heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico

coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from

local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters

for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking

hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known

just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the

hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely

dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.

Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning

area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as

tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.

Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning

area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be

catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes

landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is

likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the

Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing

into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH

12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH

24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Pasch

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NHC has it peaking at 205 mph. 

I believe when Katrina was in the central Gulf of Mexico, one of the SHIPS model runs predicted a max intensity of around 200 mph. Obviously didn't happen.

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That is a very very scary storm. I assume we aren't sending planes into it because it is too dangerous / not going to hit the U.S.? That data could be incredibly useful though.

They have been sending Recon into the storm and their observations have been critical to ascertaining the current intensity. The next scheduled Recon fix is tentatively scheduled for 1 pm CDT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

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The 09z update suggests a landfall  VERY CLOSE TO PERULA and that area could now be facing catastrophic damage. The previous track was about 40-50 miles further west. This would downgrade conditions for inland towns mentioned along route 200 but increase impact to possible high cat-4 or even cat-5 in the Perula to Chamela coastal area.

 

This may continue to fluctuate within the same zone but it does not appear likely that the landfall could shift much further east given the time remaining. Landfall approximately 21-23z. Hoping this will rapidly weaken with land interaction as the layout of Perula appears very exposed to blast of southerly winds and storm surge.

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Unbelievable. 10 years and four days after Wilma's record, we have a new one.

 

We've never seen 200 mph on a National Hurricane Center advisory.

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I believe a better comparitive storm would be hurricane Linda of the EPAC from 1997.

It had an 81 mb 24 hour decrease in the central pressure and a 90 kt. increase in the MSW. Additionally, the 12 hour data was 54 mb and 55 knots, respectively.

For Wilma, the 24 hour stats are 97 mb and 90 knots. 12 hour data was an astonishing 83 mb and 75 knots. In only a 6 hour period, hurricane Wilma's central pressure dropped a remarkable 54 mb!!

Time to update this previous comparitive post I made Last night.

Hurricane Patricia has officially had a 100 mb reduction in its central pressure in the 24 hour period from 4 am CDT yesterday until 4 am CDT this morning. An astonishing 100 knot increase in the MSW accompanied the precipitous drop in barometric pressure.

The 12 hour (4 pm to 4 am CDT) stats are 73 mb and 60 knots, respectively.

For the 6 hour period of 10 pm CDT to 4 am CDT, the official data corresponds to a 44 mb decrease in the central pressure and a 35 kt. increase in the MSW.

In every aspect, Patricia's intensification has exceeded Linda. In comparison to Wilma, Patricia comes up a little short for both the 12 and 6 hour intervals, but exceeds Wilma for overall peak intensity in terms of both minimum central pressure and highest maximum sustained winds.

In short, a truly historic and record-setting storm!

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I am quite convinced it is heading for Perula or just a shade west of there for landfall, it is curving around like Charley did in 2004 and will soon be heading slightly east of due north. And it is racing forward too, landfall 21-23z gives only 12 hours to prepare. I sent that resort an e-mail, it looks upscale and I hope they knew this was possibly coming in yesterday before retiring for the night because they will have almost zero preparation time with the thing bearing down on them by mid-day. I gather the local time zone is central daylight, meaning that they are five hours behind z time.

 

That earlier track would have been a lot better in terms of minimizing damage and potential casualties. This one puts about 20k people in harm's way at landfall and about 50k more for the heavy rain mudslide phase tonight up that highway (Mex fed 80).

 

For reference, Perula is located at 19.6 N 105.1 W

 

If you extrapolate from 18z to 06z NHC positions assuming a slight curvature, this places Perula near the eye about one-third of the way into the 12h or 22z. Later acceleration might adjust that to 23z.

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I am quite convinced it is heading for Perula or just a shade west of there for landfall, it is curving around like Charley did in 2004 and will soon be heading slightly east of due north. And it is racing forward too, landfall 21-23z gives only 12 hours to prepare. I sent that resort an e-mail, it looks upscale and I hope they knew this was possibly coming in yesterday before retiring for the night because they will have almost zero preparation time with the thing bearing down on them by mid-day. I gather the local time zone is central standard meaning that they are six hours behind z time.

 

That earlier track would have been a lot better in terms of minimizing damage and potential casualties. This one puts about 20k people in harm's way at landfall and about 50k more for the heavy rain mudslide phase tonight up that highway (Mex fed 80).

 

For reference, Perula is located at 19.6 N 105.1 W

 

If you extrapolate from 18z to 06z NHC positions assuming a slight curvature, this places Perula near the eye about one-third of the way into the 12h or 22z. Later acceleration might adjust that to 23z.

CDT is Z-5hrs, not 6  http://www.worldtimebuddy.com/?pl=1&lid=100,6,3991328&h=100

 

CST starts Nov 1st

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Time to update this previous comparitive post I made Last night.

Hurricane Patricia has officially had a 100 mb reduction in its central pressure in the 24 hour period from 4 am CDT yesterday until 4 am CDT this morning. An astonishing 100 knot increase in the MSW accompanied the precipitous drop in barometric pressure.

The 12 hour (4 pm to 4 am CDT) stats are 73 mb and 60 knots, respectively.

For the 6 hour period of 10 pm CDT to 4 am CDT, the official data corresponds to a 44 mb decrease in the central pressure and a 35 kt. increase in the MSW.

In every aspect, Patricia's intensification has exceeded Linda. In comparison to Wilma, Patricia comes up a little short for both the 12 and 6 hour intervals, but exceeds Wilma for overall peak intensity in terms of both minimum central pressure and highest maximum sustained winds.

In short, a truly historic and record-setting storm!

 

The 24 hour 100 mb pressure drop would match Supertyphoon Forrest in 1983 (976 to 876).

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NHC has it peaking at 205 mph. 

And i thought a few hours ago it was absolutely amazing that  185mph storm was forecast to make landfall. Just damn.

 

It clearly has gotten a little bit stronger....as the eye seems to have contracted even further especially in the last hour or two. I wish there was recon non stop in this until landfall. Next one sceduled for mid day but you would have to believe that by then it's close proximity to land/high terrain will have at least a little impact on it.

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Best track intensity completely split up with the ADT...makes you wonder how strong storms of similar ADT designation actually were.

201520E_wind_ssmis.gif

That is interesting. The recon last night/early am was Invaluable. I'm sure this 'cane will have tons of research done with it.

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