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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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That's what I was thinking, as well.

 

Having an ERC may even be worse than not having one, because it would allow the wind field to expand more. While the overall winds would be weaker, it would still be an incredibly strong storm at landfall even if an ERC occurred.

I agree....said the same thing earlier.

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Kind of hard to assess at what point in the ERC Patricia is at...SSMIS shows that the inner eyewall is pretty strong while the outer one is just in it's formative stage...GMI shows a stronger outer eyewall, and no sign of the inner one, although the latter is in the fringe of the scan pass. GMI is more recent than SSMIS, but both are relatively recent.

 

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post-29-0-09615000-1445618820_thumb.jpg

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Josh is just now going through Emiliano Zapata as he heads further down the coast.

 

Roads are closing at 2 so trying to recon as many places if he needs to adjust.

 

Might want to avoid this exceptionally vulnerable place in La Manzanilla 

 

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It's unfortunate that Mexico's weather site does not show a radar in the Manzanillio area.

 

Recon just emerged over the water and will pass through the eye again within the hour.

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Looks like IR temps are starting to back off Haiyan-level ridiculousness. Obviously not going to weaken much before LF, but....

 

But how much of this is due to sunlight warming the atmosphere?  I see this happen often after sunrise.

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Josh is just now going through Emiliano Zapata as he heads further down the coast.

 

Roads are closing at 2 so trying to recon as many places if he needs to adjust.

Emiliano Zapata or Melaque look fine...La Huerta if they have to go inland.

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Just sampled a balmy 7.8C reading within the eye based on GOES West

 

That's up from 3.3C about an hour ago. I'd say shes either weakened ever so slightly or maintained the 175 knot wind speed...which would be incredible. 

 

And those radar images from recon should really help Josh with his decisions... 

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Emiliano Zapata or Melaque look fine...La Huerta if they have to go inland.

 

Yep. He was in EZ for Jova but of course Pat is a different animal. Going to head down to La Manzanilla and reevaluate. Thought that would be a good halfway point in case of any wild swings. He is set on getting the core.

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Yep. He was in EZ for Jova but of course Pat is a different animal. Going to head down to La Manzanilla and reevaluate. Thought that would be a good halfway point in case of any wild swings. He is set on getting the core.

 

San Patricio/Jaluco/Barra de Navidad seem to be an option

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La Manzanilla is a nice resort....very different to most rural towns out there. Also, it's pretty hilly...can gain altitude very close to the coast if needed. I bet he can find a sturdy building there.

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Yep. He was in EZ for Jova but of course Pat is a different animal. Going to head down to La Manzanilla and reevaluate. Thought that would be a good halfway point in case of any wild swings. He is set on getting the core.

 

That's a good move, of course.

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La Manzanilla is a nice resort....very different to most rural towns out there. Also, it's pretty hilly...can gain altitude very close to the coast if needed. I bet he can find a sturdy building there.

The webcam there is gonna be real interesting in the next few hours. Already seeing some solid gusty conditions setting in.

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That's a good move, of course.

Agreed...he can find a 3-4 stories hotel there, I'm sure...concrete, including roof.

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Question for anyone who can answer.  Models have been suggesting that at least the mid level remnant of Patricia survives the trek across Mexico and heads toward the Gulf.  If it gets into the Gulf and starts to take on tropical characteristics by some chance, would it retain the Patricia name or get a new one?

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Presuming that the lat/lon on the NOAA SSD satellite loops are good, it doesn't look like this thing could wobble out of the 105W to 104.5W window at landfall.  La Manzanilla seems like a good spot in that area right now.

 

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Question for anyone who can answer. Models have been suggesting that at least the mid level remnant of Patricia survives the trek across Mexico and heads toward the Gulf. If it gets into the Gulf and starts to take on tropical characteristics by some chance, would it retain the Patricia name or get a new one?

If the low level center of the TC remains intact, it will retain the same name upon reaching another TC basin. Otherwise, it gets a new name. It's very hard for a TC to make it with its low level center intact across the main body of Mexico.

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Question for anyone who can answer. Models have been suggesting that at least the mid level remnant of Patricia survives the trek across Mexico and heads toward the Gulf. If it gets into the Gulf and starts to take on tropical characteristics by some chance, would it retain the Patricia name or get a new one?

It would be renamed.

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Question for anyone who can answer.  Models have been suggesting that at least the mid level remnant of Patricia survives the trek across Mexico and heads toward the Gulf.  If it gets into the Gulf and starts to take on tropical characteristics by some chance, would it retain the Patricia name or get a new one?

There's a non tropical low associated to an upper level trough and a cold front already in TX, heading to the coast...the remnants of Patricia will probably get absorbed and may try to organize in the GoM, but models show that it will be close to the coast and already in the westerlies, plus upper level conditions are unfavorable. Some past runs did appear to organize and let the system acquire some tropical characteristics, but not anymore.

 

 

It's almost impossible to get thru 2 mountain chains and get the low level low to survive.

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Holding to previous estimate, landfall most likely between EZ and La Manzanilla with the latter in the worst possible location relative to storm surge and forward wind in eyewall if this recent 010 motion keeps up. 2230z for landfall timing.

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Question for anyone who can answer.  Models have been suggesting that at least the mid level remnant of Patricia survives the trek across Mexico and heads toward the Gulf.  If it gets into the Gulf and starts to take on tropical characteristics by some chance, would it retain the Patricia name or get a new one?

 

I'm not one to say never. But I can't imagine a tropical system surviving that trek. It's not just the mountainous terrain that quickly destroys, tropical cyclones, it's also the extremely dry/desert-like conditions over the interior of the country.

 

We're going to see this thing weaken VERY rapidly once it makes landfall.

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It's amazing to look at that webcam at the beach at La Manzanilla and see how calm the ocean is. Hope the cam can stay up as long as possible.

I remember with Haiyan that there was an immediate rush of water similar to a tsunami I'm one of the chase videos.

Hopefully we don't see that again

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Interested that the surf isn't bigger yet. Could it be related to the small radius of the wind field?

 

Most definitely a contributor. Wave height is a function of: Fetch (area of windfield), time, and, wind velocity.

 

Relative to other big wave producing cyclones, I believe both the fetch and time element are not conducive to very significant wave heights.

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