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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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Yikes

 

173300 1810N 10516W 7100 01924 8795 +274 +110 032022 044 061 000 03
173330 1809N 10514W 7085 01937 8784 +279 +069 213041 064 077 001 03
173400 1808N 10513W 7029 02129 8934 +206 +167 211129 164 166 000 00
173430 1807N 10511W 7018 02441 9214 +203 +155 206181 191 161 005 00
173500 1806N 10510W 7036 02576 9413 +175 +107 201155 160 149 004 03
173530 1805N 10509W 7021 02681 9522 +160 +111 201137 141 126 000 00
173600 1804N 10507W 6991 02785 9612 +138 +131 199121 127 105 000 00

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191kt FLight Level, 166kt unflagged SFMR, 878.4mb pressure

173200 1813N 10519W 6889 02580 9275 +129 //// 056155 160 145 037 01

173230 1811N 10518W 6663 02584 8957 +160 //// 051106 143 100 011 05

173300 1810N 10516W 7100 01924 8795 +274 +110 032022 044 061 000 03

173330 1809N 10514W 7085 01937 8784 +279 +069 213041 064 077 001 03

173400 1808N 10513W 7029 02129 8934 +206 +167 211129 164 166 000 00

173430 1807N 10511W 7018 02441 9214 +203 +155 206181 191 161 005 00

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If Josh hits the center, that could be the lowest central pressure over land for a hurricane (tropical cyclone, for that matter) ever recorded.

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No doubt this was in Tip's league several hours earlier overnight...given the 878 mb extrapolated pressure even with a warmer CDO.

 

This is just the 5th TC in recorded history to go below 880 mb.

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25.93 , unreal

 

Any regular observation of such a pressure would make you think it's a typo. That's nuts.

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Before the recon radar site went down, I looped the recent images and saw a northwest jog of the inner core.  The newest satellite image appears to confirm a sudden left jog.  The track should then smooth out to the nne again over the next couple hours.  I'd say Manzanillo is out of extreme danger now.

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Before the recon radar site went down, I looped the recent images and saw a northwest jog of the inner core.  The newest satellite image appears to confirm a sudden left jog.  The track should then smooth out to the nne again over the next couple hours.

Shows here too:

rb_lalo-animated.gif

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Cloud tops beginning to cool again, and it appears to be beginning to make a more northward turn... Next flyby will be really interesting.

avn_lalo-animated.gif

 

I would say Emiliano Zapata is the place to be if Josh wants to get near the center.

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