• Member Statistics

    16,116
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Irish
    Newest Member
    Irish
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

Recommended Posts

Decided to start this thread since Patricia appears to be a significant threat to the coastline of Mexico.

 

The cyclone has become markedly better organized since this morning, with deep convection increasing the center, expanding upper-level outflow, and a partial eyewall on microwave imagery.

 

8BKqvgy.gif

 

The official NHC forecast has a Category 2 hurricane landfall near Manzanillo on Friday afternoon. I think it's safe to say at this point that this is a conservative prediction.

 

TKF5nWr.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

 

Patricia continues to strengthen, with an eye evident in recent
microwave images and intermittently seen in infrared imagery.
The initial intensity is set to 85 kt, a bit above the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T4.7/82 kt, and this could be a little
conservative if the eye becomes more distinct in infrared imagery.
Even so, Patricia has intensified 50 kt in the last 24 hours. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Patricia later today and
provide valuable information on the intensity and structure of the
hurricane.

 

The environment is expected to be conducive for continued rapid
strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of
very low shear and SSTs above 30C. In fact, the SHIPS RI index
shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the next 24 hours.

The official forecast is close to the upper end of the guidance near
the LGEM, and shows Patricia reaching major hurricane status by this
evening and continuing to intensify through Friday morning. Little
change in intensity is forecast on Friday prior to landfall, as
southwesterly shear begins to increase. After landfall, Patricia
should rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should
dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours.

The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward, with an
initial motion estimate of 295/15. The track forecast philosophy has
not changed, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then
northward during the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery
of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the
hurricane should turn north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track has
again been shifted a little to the left to account for the initial
motion and is near the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus on the western
side of the guidance envelope.

 

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning from north of Cabo
Corrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area.

Note that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

 

KEY MESSAGES:

 

1.  Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and
property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as
tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area
tonight or early Friday.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  22/1500Z 14.9N 103.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's some ridiculous strengthening! Has Mexico even had a cat 4 make landfall before?

 

Plenty of them, not to mention a handful of Cat 5s.

 

...they're pretty rare on the Pacific coast, though. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Plenty of them, not to mention a handful of Cat 5s.

 

...they're pretty rare on the Pacific coast, though. ;)

I asked it with the Pacific coast in mind; wasn't really thinking about the Gulf. Most Pacific storms don't make landfall, from what I've seen.

 

Pretty impressive on Satellite:

avn-animated.gif

 

vis-animated.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I asked it with the Pacific coast in mind; wasn't really thinking about the Gulf. Most Pacific storms don't make landfall, from what I've seen.

 

Pretty impressive on Satellite:

 

 

 

Actually the Caribbean coast is the most prone to get cat 4+ landfalls. There have been 4 recorded cat 4+ landfalls in the EPac coast since 1957, all in the month of October.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    87% is   6.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    87% is  11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    87% is  16.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    87% is  23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)


 

 

HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015

100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

This Special Advisory updates the initial and forecast intensity of

Patricia, based on a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft SFMR

observation of 114 kt. The aircraft reported that the central

pressure was around 958 mb. Some of the wind radii have also been

adjusted outward. This Special Advisory replaces the 1800 UTC

intermediate advisory.

The environment is expected to be conducive for continued

strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of

very low shear and SSTs above 30C. Some slight weakening is shown on

Friday prior to landfall, as southwesterly shear begins to increase,

and Patricia could undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. After

landfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low-level

circulation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before

72 hours.

No change was made to the track forecast from the previous

advisory.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the

hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane

Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and

property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as

tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area

tonight or early Friday.

 

GOES1815201529562mETh.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FYI, josh is heading for an intercept of Pat on the Mexican coast 

 

So you go to millersville? Just graduated with my met degree.

 

Also this is probably due to that persistent trough sitting down there in the SW. This should make for some fun as the euro last night drags the precip and energy from patricia into the gulf and aids in the storm toward the end of the month. But also it  takes the hurricane SE of Hawaii and moves it into a trough to affect possibly northern califronia. A lot of activity in the Pacific right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest recon pass and IR eye warming show that it's probably still deepening. We'll have to wait for the latest Vortex message, but it looks like the eye pressure is 2-3 mb lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So you go to millersville? Just graduated with my met degree.

 

Also this is probably due to that persistent trough sitting down there in the SW. This should make for some fun as the euro last night drags the precip and energy from patricia into the gulf and aids in the storm toward the end of the month. But also it  takes the hurricane SE of Hawaii and moves it into a trough to affect possibly northern califronia. A lot of activity in the Pacific right now.

 

Awesome! There have been quite a few MU grads in this board over the past couple of years. My friend and I are currently in the early stages of doing a massive overhaul of the MU-WRF after a decade of little to no upgrades. Adding new domains, upgrading resolutions, products, data assim etc. Eric is excited to see what happens 

 

Michael Ventrice showed an ECMWF product restricted to WSI that showed the atmosphere was going to be in a state dominated by El Nino (about 4.5 SD above mean) which is probably why we're seeing such an active sub-tropical branch showing up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest recon pass and IR eye warming show that it's probably still deepening. We'll have to wait for the latest Vortex message, but it looks like the eye pressure is 2-3 mb lower.

Down 5mb to 954mb per latest VDM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Awesome! There have been quite a few MU grads in this board over the past couple of years. My friend and I are currently in the early stages of doing a massive overhaul of the MU-WRF after a decade of little to no upgrades. Adding new domains, upgrading resolutions, products, data assim etc. Eric is excited to see what happens 

 

Michael Ventrice showed an ECMWF product restricted to WSI that showed the atmosphere was going to be in a state dominated by El Nino (about 4.5 SD above mean) which is probably why we're seeing such an active sub-tropical branch showing up. 

That sounds awesome good luck with that overhaul. What is your name by the way i may actually know you. Anyways yea the tropics are certainly adding into the fun. Should be interesting to see how this evolves in the next coming weeks areas are in the regions are changing quite a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Small, round eye is clearing up nicely...probably sub 950mb now. It's a shame that recon is pulling away right now. Shot at cat 5 in the next 15 hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Raw T# up to 7.1

    UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  22 OCT 2015    Time :   194500 UTC
      Lat :   15:19:04 N     Lon :  104:21:03 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.8 / 952.1mb/109.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.8     6.0     7.1

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -31.8C    Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS 

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC  
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   97km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1009mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES13 
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.1 degrees 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Raw T# up to 7.1

    UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  22 OCT 2015    Time :   194500 UTC
      Lat :   15:19:04 N     Lon :  104:21:03 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.8 / 952.1mb/109.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.8     6.0     7.1

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -31.8C    Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS 

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC  
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   97km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1009mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES13 
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.1 degrees 

Was up to 7.2 earlier on Raw  T.  Numbers are bouncing around because it's hard to get a stable IR temp in the pinhole eye.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was up to 7.2 earlier on Raw  T.  Numbers are bouncing around because it's hard to get a stable IR temp in the pinhole eye.

Missed that...anyways it's up to 7.4 and the eye is warming up nicely.

post-29-0-82956200-1445549793_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Missed that...anyways it's up to 7.4 and the eye is warming up nicely.

 

Would have to think this thing is at 120-125+ kts sustained by this point.

 

Going back to vortex's post on the main E Pac thread, this definitely has a shot at being a top 5 E Pac landfall in terms of strength.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would have to think this thing is at 120-125+ kts sustained by this point.

 

Going back to vortex's post on the main E Pac thread, this definitely has a shot at being a top 5 E Pac landfall in terms of strength.

Considering there have been only 4 115 kts+ landfalls in the EPac (Iniki would be the 5th in the CPac), the possibility is rather high...the only negative factors are that it's a really small storm and an ERC will be difficult to prevent...

 

BTW, Raw T# up to 7.6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The pinhole will probably collapse at some point over the next 18-24 hours, but again Pat it traversing some of the most anomalous waters on the globe. Hard not to see this making landfall as at least a 100+ knot system.

Josh is gonna be in for a hell of a ride.

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The pinhole will probably collapse at some point over the next 18-24 hours, but again Pat it traversing some of the most anomalous waters on the globe. Hard not to see this making landfall as at least a 100+ knot system.

Josh is gonna be in for a hell of a ride.

Sent from my SM-G925V

Yes, it's a good possibility that an ERC will start before landfall, but since we are roughly 24 hrs away from landfall, the inner eyewall might still be strong before that happens. Patricia's current satellite presentation is nearly that of a Cat 5 (22Z)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, it's a good possibility that an ERC will start before landfall, but since we are roughly 24 hrs away from landfall, the inner eyewall might still be strong before that happens. Patricia's current satellite presentation is nearly that of a Cat 5 (22Z)

 Luckily it is foretasted to make landfall near Las Penitas, which is a very sparsely populated stretch of coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 Luckily it is foretasted to make landfall near Las Penitas, which is a very sparsely populated stretch of coast.

Yes, and it's a very small system in terms of hurricane winds radius...Still, Puerto Vallarta could see a very rough day if it goes directly over them.

 

Can't resist posting the 22:15Z image...if that it's not a Cat 5, I don't know what is 

 

post-29-0-32683700-1445553832_thumb.gif

post-29-0-97707800-1445553832_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, it's a good possibility that an ERC will start before landfall, but since we are roughly 24 hrs away from landfall, the inner eyewall might still be strong before that happens. Patricia's current satellite presentation is nearly that of a Cat 5 (22Z)

 

Yeah its an extremely intense cyclone right now with -80c tops surrounding the eye. My prof who worked with the JTWC is even impressed by the rate of intensification 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those pink shades are 30-31˚C SSTs. Notice how they work their way up the coast past Puerto Vallarta as well.

 

Screen+Shot+2015-10-22+at+3.47.51+PM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah its an extremely intense cyclone right now with -80c tops surrounding the eye. My prof who worked with the JTWC is even impressed by the rate of intensification 

 

Yep, too bad there's no recon right now, central pressure is probably in the 930s or even 920s, but I think there's one departing near midnight...I calculate that would be while it's still near peak intensity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.