so_whats_happening

Saw it in Waco Tx and had clear skies during the totality. Got to even see the solar flares. Was amazing to see what everything looked like during that window of time. Can't wait for the next one in 20 years.

Have fun in Lancaster! Yea Im actually getting a little nervous about TX right now. ULL ejecting out of the SW with return flow setting up a day or two before. It would be cool to experience the cumulus towers beforehand and they all but disappear with the eclipse to come back as the sun starts to shine again. Ill be in Austin area during the time and can move around as we get closer to get a better idea of how things will fall out.

I was just about to post this quite the increase in negative anomalies (or decrease, however you choose to look at it) in just 5 days. This also seems farther west then past events have shown which end up around 120-140 W currently this is sitting just east of the dateline.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.3 +1.6 +2 +2.6 +1 +.8 +.8 0 +.4 Happy Easter Everyone. Wanted to get this done before Vacation starts.

It will be interesting to see how things go to mid April. Western ridging around the GOA with a -NAO blocking flow sounds like more troughing into the west through early April and severe weather into the plains.

Here is a 90 day coralreef animation to start things off. There does actually seem to be some cooling of the WPAC warmth just under Japan in the recent month. This should as Raindance mentioned help with a weakening of values for the -PDO coming up. Let us see what happens.

Some pretty solid subsurface negative anomalies showing up. Ill look to keep track of this probably starting next month. Warmth at the surface still holding on decently near the dateline, we will see for how long though. Models are still having trouble with the MJO forecast I could see a weaker bout for 3/4 coming up here after 1/2 before it picks up again for 6/7/8. It will be interesting to see what this does as we get closer to summer time with the hurricane season. Slowly looking more and more Nina like aloft, VP starting to head back toward the Maritime Continent.

Just as a last look with monthly TAO data for the El Nino, may update for March in the near future.

Just to give some visuals for down the road. I do find it interesting the central Pac seems to be still holding on to the warmth. It never really cooled down during the El Nino stretching back to just NE of Australia. Lets say it got to about average in some of the areas west of the dateline while directly NE of Australia dipped briefly to some negative values. Edit: may have to refresh page to get to go in motion.

Probably a bit too early to know for sure but there does seem to be some see-sawing situation between the poles. Will be interesting to watch it over the next 5 years. Thickness levels I don't think can recover meaningfully going forward but we shall what happens with extent (not that this is all too important in the long run).

well then that is one pitiful snow season. Had a feeling it would be bad but not this bad.

Shame the MEI is going away as even though ONI showed about -1 to -1.2, MEI saw this as a near strong/ borderline super Nina. In fact the second strongest in the last 40 or so years, 2010-11 being the strongest -MEI and 1989 coming in at a close third. While La Ninas aren't great for the east we can still manage something at least interior tends to get the brunt, last year was just a whole different situation. If we do indeed go full bore La Nina the winters following tend to not be terrible after following a strong Nino. So we shall see that is also based on the idea the PDO doesn't stay extremely negative but we are still not seeing much change in that department. Also welcome to the boards.

Gotta say it was pretty cool to see this happen. Im not sure if it is connected somehow but watch off Panama and then a few days later west of the Galapagos.

Well MEI data will no longer be updated... https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Very cool. You can see from your first picture we took a step up in the early 2000s and something just went nuts around the 15/16 Nino. Is it possible that in order to keep as close to balance as it can be that we see a multi decadal -PDO state and potentially more La Ninas to try and 'revert' things? Edit: Also wanted to add it is interesting to note that the La Nina SST anomaly seems to be not nearly as intense over time even with impacts still being almost as potent as they were 30-40 years ago. I wonder if this is due to the warming of the surrounding oceans having an impact on the overall SST anomaly yet when the background is still La Nina we still feel the episodes regardless of ONI values. Example being we hit barely moderate level on the third year La Nina yet the MEI would suggest we were near super Nina levels of impact. 2010-11 gave us near strong Nina levels via ONI and MEI but this was also before things changed with the 15/16 Nino.