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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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It's amazing to look at that webcam at the beach at La Manzanilla and see how calm the ocean is.  Hope the cam can stay up as long as possible.

Got a link?

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That 878 was with 60 knot surface winds!!

I'm in awe

Sent from my SM-G925V

So low 870s maybe? I wonder if its possible it either now or sometime between recon flights it got down below 870. Just unreal.. At this point you run out of words to describe this monster.

 

One would think it would decrease ever so slightly right before landfall but I've been wondering given the trajectory, shape of the coastline, and immediate inland topography if there could be some increase in surface winds on the east side due to contraction of the wind field between the center and the coast..Kind of a funneling effect   considering the angle of approach and immediate inland topography.

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So low 870s maybe? I wonder if its possible it either now or sometime between recon flights it got down below 870. Just unreal.. At this point you run out of words to describe this monster.

 

One would think it would decrease ever so slightly right before landfall but I've been wondering given the trajectory, shape of the coastline, and immediate inland topography if there could be some increase in surface winds due to contraction of the wind field between the center and the coast..sort of a funneling effect since it's sort of a unique angle of approach.

 

 

Would think we are at or near the maximum potential intensity for a tropical cyclone in this part of the world. 

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So low 870s maybe? I wonder if its possible it either now or sometime between recon flights it got down below 870. Just unreal.. At this point you run out of words to describe this monster.

 

One would think it would decrease ever so slightly right before landfall but I've been wondering given the trajectory, shape of the coastline, and immediate inland topography if there could be some increase in surface winds due to contraction of the wind field between the center and the coast..sort of a funneling effect since it's sort of a unique angle of approach.

That only applies to dropsondes, not estimated pressure from the aircraft. 

 

The sonde had 883 with 43 kts surface winds...that's around 878-879mb

 

Edit: 879mb that is

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Usually a 1mb drop per 10 knots...

 

So theoretically a 872 reading...we'll what the VDM has 

Ok, Thought so. Thank you.

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That only applies to dropsondes, not estimated pressure from the aircraft. 

 

The sonde had 883 with 43 kts surface winds...that's around 878-879mb

 

Edit: 879mb that is

 

Exactly, a lot of people are missing that.

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Josh is just now going through Emiliano Zapata as he heads further down the coast.

 

Roads are closing at 2 so trying to recon as many places if he needs to adjust.

Man, I hope he is extra careful with this one.

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Would think we are at or near the maximum potential intensity for a tropical cyclone in this part of the world. 

I certainly would think so too. I actually thought it would probably start weakening a bit by now given   but i'm just wondering if it's possible a small increase in winds on it's eastern side could be possible thanks to the sort of unique set of factors. Would be a rather small area and likely wouldn't ever be measured but just a thought.

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878, I think that qualifies as over 9000 on the Vegeta scouter.

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That only applies to dropsondes, not estimated pressure from the aircraft. 

 

The sonde had 883 with 43 kts surface winds...that's around 878-879mb

 

Edit: 879mb that is

ah i missed that... thought that was from a  dropsonde. thanks for the correction.

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32C at 850mb is crazy enough. At 700-710mb? That's gotta be some kind of record.

850 almost is the surface.

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Anyone know what the recon plane is doing? Looks like it turned around for some reason

recon_NOAA3-0420E-PATRICIA.png

going to make a few passes. 

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