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Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia


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Not sure it got mentioned here, but the VDM mentions 204 kts FL winds...with a 10% reduction, that's 190kts at surface.

 

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 204kts (From the ESE at ~ 234.8mph)

 

Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon.

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What is the most intense LF on record....global scale?

 

By maximum one-minute sustained winds, Haiyan (165 kt) holds the record, if I recall correctly. The 1935 Labor Day hurricane (160 kt) is second.

 

These are probably correct.  Dean on the Yucatan in 2007 is another candidate (155 kt I believe).

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Not really fair to call Philippines 3rd world. Plenty of poverty and slums, but more of a developing country. Been there for two typhoons, and the populace was very informed and the local reporting/warning systems had a sophistication that you wouldn't see in a true 3rd world country.

Patricia's 200 mph+ winds and surge would return 1st and 3rd world locations to a similar baseline, in the area of greatest impact

 

It was a reckless generalization on my part, and for that i apologize. Main point is that i trust Josh surviving Patricia after he was able to withstand Haiyan.

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Latest satellite frames suggest hanging tight in EZ was probably the right call. Still going just west of due N at 1845z. Would have to turn sharply to get to La Manzanilla now. Moving quickly.

 

1900z satellite imagery hints that the right wobble might be beginning. EZ might be perfect.

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Hurricane patricia IS the strongest tropical cyclone in history in terms of 1-min sustained winds.  End of story. 

 

Hurricane Patricia is the strongest tropical cyclone measured 1-min sustained winds by aircraft reconnaissance in the recorded meteorological history. Pacific typhoon wind speed is generally satellite measured. I would venture to conclude several Pacific typhoons would have as fast or faster 1-min sustained winds using the same metric.

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Latest satellite frames suggest hanging tight in EZ was probably the right call. Still going just west of due N at 1845z. Would have to turn sharply to get to La Manzanilla now. Moving quickly.

 

We're debating about him heading back to San Mateo. Northerly component is still occurring and almost back on original track.

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Not sure it got mentioned here, but the VDM mentions 204 kts FL winds...with a 10% reduction, that's 190kts at surface.

 

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 204kts (From the ESE at ~ 234.8mph)

 

Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon.

Damn...any word on what it is? I would think if it was critical they would just fly back though. Regardless, that just figures. Strongest storm we've ever seen, at least on this side of the world, and there is equipment malfunction. Of all the damn luck. Sure hope they get it fixed asap but it's not going to matter before too much longer because it's not far from making landfall now.

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Not sure it got mentioned here, but the VDM mentions 204 kts FL winds...with a 10% reduction, that's 190kts at surface.

 

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 204kts (From the ESE at ~ 234.8mph)

 

Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon.

 

These are probably correct.  Dean on the Yucatan in 2007 is another candidate (155 kt I believe).

Dean and Felix both made landfall at 150 kt, as did Janet 1955. Typhoon Zeb (1998) hit the Philippines at 155 kt, if I recall correctly.

 

And that 204-kt flight-level wind likely means that this storm will be upgraded in post-seasonal analysis to a peak of 180-185 kt (90% reduction yields ~184 kt 10-m winds).

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Hurricane Patricia is the strongest tropical cyclone measured 1-min sustained winds by aircraft reconnaissance in the recorded meteorological history. Pacific typhoon wind speed is generally satellite measured. I would venture to conclude several Pacific typhoons would have as fast or faster 1-min sustained winds using the same metric.

 

I wouldn't venture to conclude anything from unsubstantiated speculation.

 

Also, the Dvorak estimates for this system were comparable to, or higher than any other numbers I am familiar with.  Does anyone recall what the highest observed Dvorak numbers are?

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Dean and Felix both made landfall at 150 kt, as did Janet 1955. Typhoon Zeb (1998) hit the Philippines at 155 kt, if I recall correctly.

 

And that 204-kt flight-level wind likely means that this storm will be upgraded in post-seasonal analysis to a peak of 180-185 kt (90% reduction yields ~184 kt 10-m winds).

Right, 184kts...spaced out, sorry

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I wouldn't venture to conclude anything from unsubstantiated speculation.

 

Also, the Dvorak estimates for this system were comparable to, or higher than any other numbers I am familiar with.  Does anyone recall what the highest observed Dvorak numbers are?

 

8.3 raw, 8.2 final via ADT 8.2.1

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/20E-list.txt

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Ya, I think the 1915z satellite frame will help. Maybe wait for that before making a decision! :P

 

New frame is in... tough to say. Looks like it's turned a bit right, but I don't think it's far enough yet to be making a beeline for EZ. As usual, you guys are on top of things discussing the possibility of moving back further north.

 

EDIT: On the other hand, the GOES West imagery makes it look like EZ is still perfect. Hooray for parallax.

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