• Member Statistics

    16,114
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    dhubbard
    Newest Member
    dhubbard
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

Recommended Posts

Not sure it got mentioned here, but the VDM mentions 204 kts FL winds...with a 10% reduction, that's 190kts at surface.

 

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 204kts (From the ESE at ~ 234.8mph)

 

Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is the most intense LF on record....global scale?

 

By maximum one-minute sustained winds, Haiyan (165 kt) holds the record, if I recall correctly. The 1935 Labor Day hurricane (160 kt) is second.

 

These are probably correct.  Dean on the Yucatan in 2007 is another candidate (155 kt I believe).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not really fair to call Philippines 3rd world. Plenty of poverty and slums, but more of a developing country. Been there for two typhoons, and the populace was very informed and the local reporting/warning systems had a sophistication that you wouldn't see in a true 3rd world country.

Patricia's 200 mph+ winds and surge would return 1st and 3rd world locations to a similar baseline, in the area of greatest impact

 

It was a reckless generalization on my part, and for that i apologize. Main point is that i trust Josh surviving Patricia after he was able to withstand Haiyan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest satellite frames suggest hanging tight in EZ was probably the right call. Still going just west of due N at 1845z. Would have to turn sharply to get to La Manzanilla now. Moving quickly.

 

1900z satellite imagery hints that the right wobble might be beginning. EZ might be perfect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hurricane patricia IS the strongest tropical cyclone in history in terms of 1-min sustained winds.  End of story. 

 

Hurricane Patricia is the strongest tropical cyclone measured 1-min sustained winds by aircraft reconnaissance in the recorded meteorological history. Pacific typhoon wind speed is generally satellite measured. I would venture to conclude several Pacific typhoons would have as fast or faster 1-min sustained winds using the same metric.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon.

 

Just curious as to where you're hearing that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest satellite frames suggest hanging tight in EZ was probably the right call. Still going just west of due N at 1845z. Would have to turn sharply to get to La Manzanilla now. Moving quickly.

 

We're debating about him heading back to San Mateo. Northerly component is still occurring and almost back on original track.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure it got mentioned here, but the VDM mentions 204 kts FL winds...with a 10% reduction, that's 190kts at surface.

 

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 204kts (From the ESE at ~ 234.8mph)

 

Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon.

Damn...any word on what it is? I would think if it was critical they would just fly back though. Regardless, that just figures. Strongest storm we've ever seen, at least on this side of the world, and there is equipment malfunction. Of all the damn luck. Sure hope they get it fixed asap but it's not going to matter before too much longer because it's not far from making landfall now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just curious as to where you're hearing that?

Pacific Hurricanes group in FB...obviously nothing official, so take it with a grain of salt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure it got mentioned here, but the VDM mentions 204 kts FL winds...with a 10% reduction, that's 190kts at surface.

 

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 204kts (From the ESE at ~ 234.8mph)

 

Rumors say that there's equipment malfunction with recon.

 

These are probably correct.  Dean on the Yucatan in 2007 is another candidate (155 kt I believe).

Dean and Felix both made landfall at 150 kt, as did Janet 1955. Typhoon Zeb (1998) hit the Philippines at 155 kt, if I recall correctly.

 

And that 204-kt flight-level wind likely means that this storm will be upgraded in post-seasonal analysis to a peak of 180-185 kt (90% reduction yields ~184 kt 10-m winds).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're debating about him heading back to San Mateo. Northerly component is still occurring and almost back on original track.

 

Ya, I think the 1915z satellite frame will help. Maybe wait for that before making a decision! :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hurricane Patricia is the strongest tropical cyclone measured 1-min sustained winds by aircraft reconnaissance in the recorded meteorological history. Pacific typhoon wind speed is generally satellite measured. I would venture to conclude several Pacific typhoons would have as fast or faster 1-min sustained winds using the same metric.

 

I wouldn't venture to conclude anything from unsubstantiated speculation.

 

Also, the Dvorak estimates for this system were comparable to, or higher than any other numbers I am familiar with.  Does anyone recall what the highest observed Dvorak numbers are?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dean and Felix both made landfall at 150 kt, as did Janet 1955. Typhoon Zeb (1998) hit the Philippines at 155 kt, if I recall correctly.

 

And that 204-kt flight-level wind likely means that this storm will be upgraded in post-seasonal analysis to a peak of 180-185 kt (90% reduction yields ~184 kt 10-m winds).

Right, 184kts...spaced out, sorry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just caught back up and was thinking why no one is praying for the NOAA hurricane hunter and bam... saw that tweet. Can't believe they can even fly through those conditions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I'm sure the cabin smells of excrement, but hopefully they can get situated in time to punch the core again. That'll be the last before landfall.

Sent from my LG G4.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ya, I think the 1915z satellite frame will help. Maybe wait for that before making a decision! :P

 

New frame is in... tough to say. Looks like it's turned a bit right, but I don't think it's far enough yet to be making a beeline for EZ. As usual, you guys are on top of things discussing the possibility of moving back further north.

 

EDIT: On the other hand, the GOES West imagery makes it look like EZ is still perfect. Hooray for parallax.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The average decent rate for a commercial jet is 457.2 meters per 30 second interval. Nothing unusual there.

 

That is a planned descent. When you are flying along and then forced down 660 meters..it's a bit hairy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.