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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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902 extrap. Better news for the folks down there. Still going to be a very bad situation, but at least it's not the worst case scenario (perhaps). Seems like ERC moreso than terrain at this point.

Let's keep some perspective here and hope Josh gets his intercept.

It's likely a combination of both factors with drier air being able to penatrate the circulation due to the ERC.

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165 knots, 900mb pressure for the 5pm advisory

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 900 MB

EYE DIAMETER 5 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 165 KT WITH GUSTS TO 205 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

34 KT.......150NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

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this storm will still devastate the area it's close to.. it's stronger than andrew or katrina.. just because it weakened does not mean incredible damage and loss of many lives will not still happen...

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this storm will still devastate the area it's close to.. it's stronger than andrew or katrina.. just because it weakened does not mean incredible damage and loss of many lives will not still happen...

I'd bet money the winds are less than andrew.

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165 knots, 900mb pressure for the 5pm advisoryESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  900 MBEYE DIAMETER   5 NMMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 165 KT WITH GUSTS TO 205 KT.64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.34 KT.......150NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.12 FT SEAS..120NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Doesn't take into account recon then?

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Even a historic hurricane can't defy physics and maintain an incredibly strong, tiny inner core forever... especially as it begins to feel the pull of a trough and exits the region of perfect conditions.

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So the question is will they determine that at one point sustained winds were greater than 200 mph? 

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seems to be weakening rapidly the last few  frames that mountainous terrain ere cycle.. taking it's toll.. unlike the flat land andrew had to cross in florida....

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I'd bet money the winds are less than andrew.

 

 

Why? This thing had the most impressive reconnaissance readings we've ever seen in the western Hemisphere. 

 

191-203 knot flight level winds are just insane...and everyone here knows that this was far below the 879mb that was recorded earlier today.

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So the question is will they determine that at one point sustained winds were greater than 200 mph?

My best guess would be that they will increase the peak MSW to 180 knots in post-season analysis. The satellite intensity estimates increased between Recon flights and they found a slightly lower pressure when they finally got back in there this afternoon. Thus, one would presume the peak intensity occurred between the two Recon flights.

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Doesn't look like they considered the newer recon data: 

 

 

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed
little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured
192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall,
with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave radiometer.
The central pressure estimated from an eye
dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become
cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an
outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an
increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the
hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt,
and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a
Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few
hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of
Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly
weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36
hours, if not sooner.

Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion
of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a
mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over
northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion
toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's
life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the
previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies
near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to
the left of the center after that time.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.
 

 

Of course, winds could still be fairly strong in the Northeast and Southwest quadrants. I don't imagine the recon will do a 3rd flyby, though.

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Why? This thing had the most impressive reconnaissance readings we've ever seen in the western Hemisphere. 

 

191 flight level winds are just insane.

The latest pass showed a distinct weakening of the inner eye wall and a pressure rise of 21mb. This flattened out the gradient.

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A rapid ERC was the best possible scenario. The storm won't have time for the outter eyewall to ramp up a powerful new gradiant. We're still looking at an incredibly dangerous situation, but an ERC right at landfall was the best possible scenario because the core wasn't being inhibited by negative outside influences yet (i.e. inflow and the mountains) as it is still a small core. Not downplaying, it's just a far better scenario having a weakening vortex making landfall than a 190mph vortex making landfall.

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A rapid ERC was the best possible scenario. The storm won't have time for the outter eyewall to ramp up a powerful new gradiant. We're still looking an incredibly dangerous situation, but an ERC right at landfall was the best possible scenario because the core wasn't being inhibited by negative outside influences yet (i.e. inflow and the mountains) as it is still a small core. Not downplaying, it's just a far better scenario having a weakening vortex making landfall than a 190mph vortex making landfall.

Yea, it's gone from an unprecedented, unimaginable strike, to an extreme, yet ordinary one.

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Actually, it looks as if the more westerly short-term track caused it to track outside the most favorable upper-level conditions and into an area of stronger southerly shear near the jet entrance region. The small inner core has yet to feel the full influence of the mountains, so I doubt that land interaction has played much of a role in the rapid weakening. I'd say shear plus ERC has done Patricia in, though it will still be a strong Category 4 hurricane at landfall (125-130 kt) in the post-seasonal analysis, most probably.

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Doesn't take into account recon then?

They don't want to decrease the winds too much which will lull the public into a false sense of security. They'll definitely take into account the recon in post-analysis, will probably lower the max sustained winds at this time point by at least 20-30 kt.

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Actually, it looks as if the more westerly short-term track caused it to track outside the most favorable upper-level conditions and into an area of stronger southerly shear near the jet entrance region. The small inner core has yet to feel the full influence of the mountains, so I doubt that land interaction has played much of a role in the rapid weakening. I'd say shear plus ERC has done Patricia in, though it will still be a strong Category 4 hurricane at landfall (125-130 kt) in the post-seasonal analysis, most probably.

I would simply add that it's likely the ERC allowed drier air to be entrained into the circulation due to its proximity to land.

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Yeah so sad we couldn't see a 200 mph strike.

 

It's almost physically impossible to see one for a TC moving north under the influence of a mid-latitude system.

 

True bonifide Cat 5 landfalls are only possible in the deep tropics with a westerly moving TC - Haiyan, Bopha, Dean, Gilbert, Labor Day 1935, Janet, etc.

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