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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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I know puerto vallarta is not in the ground zero path, but i have a friend riding out in a shelter there, which is actually a preschool (concrete structure with windows) 150 ft above sea level.. Winds there i imagine wont get above minimal hurricane force, you guys think shes fine with the windows even?

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Mountainous terrain starting to take it's toll on Patricia or is it just an ERC?

It is likely a combination of the two. Been waiting for this to ultimately occur. Now, it's a matter of how much (how quickly) it weakens prior to landfall and how these structural changes will impact the wind field.

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Mexico is sure lucky with this track.  In these super intense storms the real crazy winds are really confined to a small area.  I would guess that anyone more than 25 miles from the eye will not have super damaging winds except right along the beach to the right of where the eye comes ashore.  So luckily a very, very small population is going to experience catastrophic wind conditions.

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Ya, I think the 1915z satellite frame will help. Maybe wait for that before making a decision! :P

Moving a little to the east...trochoidal wobble in full effect :)

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The assertions in this article are still speculative.  You earlier saw with this storm how significantly ADT numbers can sometimes give poor estimations for observed winds.  In this case, the observed winds were higher than ADT estimates; however, there is certainly an error margin on ADT, and 'concluding' that unobserved storms that had ADT numbers a few decimal points higher simply isn't good science.

 

I was simply correcting your poorly worded conjecture. Perhaps you should use the scientific method and try to prove why your hypothesis is false.

 

Hurricane patricia IS the strongest tropical cyclone in history in terms of 1-min sustained winds.  End of story. 

 

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I know puerto vallarta is not in the ground zero path, but i have a friend riding out in a shelter there, which is actually a preschool (concrete structure with windows) 150 ft above sea level.. Winds there i imagine wont get above minimal hurricane force, you guys think shes fine with the windows even?

Based on my own experience with similar wind intensity, she should be. Regardless, it's always best to stay away from windows due to prospective flying debris.

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I was simply correcting your poorly worded conjecture. Perhaps you should use the scientific method and try to prove why your hypothesis is false.

 

You have me on this one.  I should have stated 'To the best of our knowledge, Hurricane Patricia is the strongest tropical cyclone in the history of reliable observations'.

 

My apologies for harping on you, and then turning around and making a statement like that.

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edit.nm. given the look on the radar/satellite...looks like they probably missed the possibly strongest thanks to all that looping around and stalling.

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as amazing as this storm is from a weather standpoint.. it could have been even better.. why no recon this morning was baffling... to say the least.. and i don't know what been going on with the recon this afternoon.this storm stats could have been even more crazy but .. human decisions got into the way...

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As of now Josh is going to ride it out in Emiliano Zapata. Talked about moving back towards San Mateo, but at this point probably not a good idea. Just need one nice light bump to the right.

20:15Z still got some east component to the motion.

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The beginning of an ERC plus proximity to the south induce some slight weakening, don't think it has time to go below cat 5 prior to landfall though. 

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as amazing as this storm is from a weather standpoint.. it could have been even better.. why no recon this morning was baffling... to say the least.. and i don't know what been going on with the recon this afternoon.this storm stats could have been even more crazy but .. human decisions got into the way...

The storm is what it is, regardless of whether recon samples it.

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looks like the storm has weakened quite a bit...a few hours ago would have been different....i guess they wanted to wait till the last moment before landfall to make there final observations of the storm...

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As of now Josh is going to ride it out in Emiliano Zapata. Talked about moving back towards San Mateo, but at this point probably not a good idea. Just need one nice light bump to the right.

Damn I nailed that spot from this AM in the other thread :cool:

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902 extrap.  Better news for the folks down there.  Still going to be a very bad situation, but at least it's not the worst case scenario (perhaps).  Seems like ERC moreso than terrain at this point.

 

Let's keep some perspective here and hope Josh gets his intercept.

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