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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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Tip was a typhoon. They said hurricane. And I don't know the advisory intensities for Tip, but as far as I can see the highest 1m sustained winds for Tip were 165kts (190mph). It was a huge storm, so even though the pressure was lower, the gradient may not have been as strong.

Yeah, you're right about the winds, my bad. But I don't think the average reader will make the distinction between a typhoon and hurricane in that sentence.

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In western hemisphere.....news outlets like to leave out a few details here and there

It's also the strongest storm in the NHC's area of responsibility which the NHC mentioned in their discussions, and western hemisphere is the only place tropical cyclones are called Hurricanes, so I really don't see how this is sensationalism at all. 

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Recon continues to pace back and forth, so something is either wrong with the instruments or the plane itself.  Either way, they only had enough fuel for a few passes to begin with.  I'm becoming concerned we won't get any additional data.

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Yeah, you're right about the winds, my bad. But I don't think the average reader will make the distinction between a typhoon and hurricane in that sentence.

 

Even if they don't, the wind speed argument is still true. The media often sensationalizes things, but in this instance, I don't think that quote is unreasonable.

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I know the sustained winds are 200 mph... But think about the gusts to 245 mph for a second. That's 100 mph stronger than 145 mph, which is firmly in the category 4 range. I can't even fathom seeing such gusts in a hurricane.

exactly..i think a lot of folks only look at the sustained winds and not the gusts. fwiw, it sure looks like the eye has contracted even more the last few frames on satellite. Maybe it just looks that way with the increase in cold cloud tops but it sure looks like it.

 

Recon continues to pace back and forth, so something is either wrong with the instruments or the plane itself.  Either way, they only had enough fuel for a few passes to begin with.  I'm becoming concerned we won't get any additional data.

Yeah i wish we knew wtf was going on. Will make me sick not to get another pass..especially since there appears to be a last minute bit of strengthening occurring.

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I don't know who this Josh is but I assume he knows his stuff regarding the tropics. With that said tho, I hope he gets out of the direct path and loses the tunnel vision ASAP. This isn't some Cat 1-2 storm...,this is the strongest hurricane ever recorded. Serious concerns for this persons well-being.

 

yeah dude rode out Typhoon Haiyan in a 3rd world country 2 years ago..I trust he will survive, but man its scary to think about doing what hes doing and i'll pray for him.

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exactly..i think a lot of folks only look at the sustained winds and not the gusts. fwiw, it sure looks like the eye has contracted even more the last few frames on satellite. Maybe it just looks that way with the increase in cold cloud tops but it sure looks like it.

Visible Satellite barely even has the eye visible at this point, can't even imagine what the winds are like just outside of that

 

post-595-0-37105900-1445626809_thumb.jpg

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I suggested to Josh to hang tight in EZ. Weather hasn't fully gone downhill yet and can adjust N or S.

 

Latest satellite frames suggest hanging tight in EZ was probably the right call. Still going just west of due N at 1845z. Would have to turn sharply to get to La Manzanilla now. Moving quickly.

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I know the sustained winds are 200 mph... But think about the gusts to 245 mph for a second. That's 100 mph stronger than 145 mph, which is firmly in the category 4 range. I can't even fathom seeing such gusts in a hurricane.

 

Like a ~20 mi wide tornado.  Think about that...  

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Hurricane patricia IS the strongest tropical cyclone in history in terms of 1-min sustained winds.  End of story. 

 

There is no 'sensationalizing' a TC that achieves a low central pressure of <=880 hPa and 200 mph 1 minute sustained winds for > 6 hours.  This has never happened since reliable measurements have been taken.  Don't try and under sensationalize this event.

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I'd give my last dollar to be in the right front quadrant of Patricia when she makes landfall. Screw safety, if I'm gonna dieni want to go out in style. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

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yeah dude rode out Typhoon Haiyan in a 3rd world country 2 years ago..I trust he will survive, but man its scary to think about doing what hes doing and i'll pray for him.

Not really fair to call Philippines 3rd world. Plenty of poverty and slums, but more of a developing country. Been there for two typhoons, and the populace was very informed and the local reporting/warning systems had a sophistication that you wouldn't see in a true 3rd world country.

Patricia's 200 mph+ winds and surge would return 1st and 3rd world locations to a similar baseline, in the area of greatest impact

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I'd give my last dollar to be in the right front quadrant of Patricia when she makes landfall. Screw safety, if I'm gonna dieni want to go out in style. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Literally once in a lifetime unless you're extremely protected.

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Hurricane patricia IS the strongest tropical cyclone in history in terms of 1-min sustained winds.  End of story. 

 

There is no 'sensationalizing' a TC that achieves a low central pressure of <=880 hPa and 200 mph 1 minute sustained winds for > 6 hours.  This has never happened since reliable measurements have been taken.  Don't try and under sensationalize this event.

Exactly.

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Def. looks to be intensifying and speeding up as it approaches LF.

Unfathomable.

 

Isn't there a warm pool of water right near the coast? It's like this thing has a constant supply of top grade jet fuel. Unreal.

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