AppsRunner

I haven't looked at any guidance tonight but DEN recorded 0.12" in an hour while the temperature was -9F so clearly this storm will overperform.

Made this one myself, hope you enjoy.

Yep, and now I only know how to forecast NW flow jet bands and upslope. But now who will tell me my TAFs are bad?

That's not particularly surprising. The ARW cores have that tendency vs NMM. We see it a lot in Colorado. I wouldn't put much faith into it anyways since it's the SREF but it sure is fun to look at sometimes

Quick, someone post the new SREF

Early trends are... not great, unless you want it to snow in Cleveland.

I thought this storm was already over?

The ECM ensemble continue a slightly weaker/slower evolution through the Ohio valley and is at least a slight jog east. The STL-IND-DTW track feels like a reasonable middle ground for now. I'll still take the over for ALEK.

This run did not show exactly what I wanted, so it is clearly wrong.

Proud of the GFS for managing to be west of the NAM

Outside of Tuesday the long range pattern looks hot through the majority of September. How far will we go into October before we see snow?

About 1.5" in Boulder at 6pm. Wondering when the snow shuts off here tonight, probably will hold on for a few more hours of good snow

Yeah, I'm sure some people called it over when the metro saw drizzle all day. At the office things have whitened up. We'll see how it goes. Road temps down to the upper 30s

The images coming out of CYS/UNR is why I'm still concerned for Denver metro this evening. I know we've been warmer but road temps could still cool substantially today and if we get good rates it could yet rough this evening, especially if nobody's expecting it. 36F and rain downtown for now though, looks like Broomfield was low 30s and 1/2 SM with snow

The GFS has been running the hottest and has been significantly overdoing QPF during the day tomorrow. The better signal is for a good round of QPF with better surface temps and a deeper DGZ 21-12Z where the ECM and it's ensemble members have consistently shown. Recent CAM runs have also come on board (at least somewhat) in the past couple cycles. The evening snow is a bit more concerning for pavement accumulations, but still would imagine snow only sticks to pavement in the metro. Of course, it has to happen first. I'm mostly happy that this will spit out a lot for the Cameron Peak fire. Satellite has not been pretty the past two days.

Holding firm on the Warnings/Advisories. Seems like most accums for the metro are going to come afternoon into overnight tomorrow. Still think a good snow is in store for the metro, but it's going to be borderline.

No headlines for the mountains today, but probably coming soon. Metro still a question mark but at least some snow accumulation looking like a safe bet. Meanwhile 101F today is the all time September record

Forecast desk this weekend. Ready to have some fun! Think at the very least the metro will see some flakes. Not sold on accumulations here but we're getting closer...

From a purely technical standpoint, August 2020 was 0.016 degrees hotter. The sum of highs and lows in 2011 was 4774 degrees, and this year was 4775. Couldn't have been any closer! Anyone else see the Euro for next week? 94 Monday, followed by 6-10" of snow for the plains Monday night into Wednesday. That seems... optimistic

That small circulation just to the west of KLOT looks like trouble. No obvious TDS but its also got 90kt at 450ft so it's gonna produce damage one way or the other.

Arguably stronger winds behind the main line, DVN gust to 75kt a few minutes ago.

Again back by Des Moines, but getting some better resolution photos out there.

The ratio of sig severe gusts in this has been extremely impressive. This has to be a high risk upgrade at some point soon. They put out the 1630 update early, surely an early-issue 20z high is in the cards.

Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 4 ENE Shellsburg [Linn Co, IA] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:58 PM CDT -- estimated gusts over 100 mph with multiple campers blown over, along with the shelter roof at the park blown off.