AppsRunner

I haven't looked at any guidance tonight but DEN recorded 0.12" in an hour while the temperature was -9F so clearly this storm will overperform.

Made this one myself, hope you enjoy.

Yep, and now I only know how to forecast NW flow jet bands and upslope. But now who will tell me my TAFs are bad?

That's not particularly surprising. The ARW cores have that tendency vs NMM. We see it a lot in Colorado. I wouldn't put much faith into it anyways since it's the SREF but it sure is fun to look at sometimes

Quick, someone post the new SREF

Early trends are... not great, unless you want it to snow in Cleveland.

I thought this storm was already over?

The ECM ensemble continue a slightly weaker/slower evolution through the Ohio valley and is at least a slight jog east. The STL-IND-DTW track feels like a reasonable middle ground for now. I'll still take the over for ALEK.

This run did not show exactly what I wanted, so it is clearly wrong.

Proud of the GFS for managing to be west of the NAM

Outside of Tuesday the long range pattern looks hot through the majority of September. How far will we go into October before we see snow?

That small circulation just to the west of KLOT looks like trouble. No obvious TDS but its also got 90kt at 450ft so it's gonna produce damage one way or the other.

Arguably stronger winds behind the main line, DVN gust to 75kt a few minutes ago.

Again back by Des Moines, but getting some better resolution photos out there.