• Member Statistics

    16,294
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Nbarth
    Newest Member
    Nbarth
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

Recommended Posts

I would imagine this might be similar to Charley on crack. Approaching the coast at a similar angle that Charley approached Florida, and a small, but very intense inner core. I remember them issuing tornado warnings where Charley made landfall, because it was literally like a massive tornado buzz sawing the entire area.

I was actually making my first visit to Florida the week Hurricane Charley came ashore, my grandparents have a house on "Pine Island" right around punta gorda port Charlotte area, Which took a direct hit I remember the mandatory evacuations they had in place, and we drove 6 hours north in traffic jammed interstates to escape.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


000

URPN12 KWBC 231839

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202015

A. 23/17:33:00Z

B. 18 deg 10 min N

105 deg 16 min W

C. 700 mb 1924 m

D. 169 kt

E. 305 deg / 5 nm

F. 118 deg 204 kt

G. 133 deg 5 nm

H. 883 mb

I. 12 C / 3063 m

J. 28 C / 2901 m

K. 11 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C7

N. 12345 / 7

O. 1 / 1 nm

P. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA OB 04

MAX FL WIND 160 KT 318 / 5 NM 17:31:55Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 92 KT 125 / 8 NM 17:40:49Z

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 45 KTS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep. He is on his way to EZ. Told him he may have to head further N to Careyes or Chamela. Can't lie. Not fully comfortable but trust his judgement. Running out of time and has to find somewhere to hunker down.

 

For his sake I hope you guys are right. I still suspect the center to pass very close to La Manzanilla, myself. I would guess this left wobble will make way for one more right wobble before landfall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
000URPN12 KWBC 231839VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  EP202015A. 23/17:33:00ZB. 18 deg 10 min N  105 deg 16 min WC. 700 mb 1924 mD. 169 ktE. 305 deg / 5 nmF. 118 deg 204 ktG. 133 deg 5 nmH. 883 mbI. 12 C / 3063 mJ. 28 C / 2901 mK. 11 C / NAL. CLOSED WALLM. C7N. 12345 / 7O. 1 / 1 nmP. NOAA3 0420E PATRICIA OB 04MAX FL WIND 160 KT 318 / 5 NM 17:31:55ZMAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 92 KT 125 / 8 NM 17:40:49ZCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 45 KTS

 

883mb with 45kts, suggests 879mb is pretty much the correct call.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For his sake I hope you guys are right. I still suspect the center to pass very close to La Manzanilla, myself. I would guess this left wobble will make way for one more right wobble before landfall.

You might be right, if the trochoidal idea is right, then it should start moving more NNW soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Media sensationalization ftw:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/americas/hurricane-patricia/

 

"Hurricane Patricia-- The Strongest Hurricane ever recorded--"

 

Not quite, CNN, not quite

 

I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think 175kts is the highest advisory intensity for any tropical cyclone ever, so in that sense it would be the "strongest". Additionally, the 879mb would make it the deepest hurricane (not the deepest tropical cyclone). So it's not really sensationalization.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think 175kts is the highest advisory intensity for any tropical cyclone ever, so in that sense it would be the "strongest". Additionally, the 879mb would make it the deepest hurricane (not the deepest tropical cyclone). So it's not really sensationalization.

Highest wind speed and lowest pressure for any storm in the NHC forecasting area, not in the world (which is what CNN's advertising). Typhoon Tip got down to 870 mb and 215 mph sustained.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For his sake I hope you guys are right. I still suspect the center to pass very close to La Manzanilla, myself. I would guess this left wobble will make way for one more right wobble before landfall.

 

I think you may be right that this will wobble back, but the way it bounced off of 105W I don't know that it can get as far east as La Manzanilla.  Josh's play might be right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Highest wind speed and lowest pressure for any storm in the NHC forecasting area, not in the world (which is what CNN's advertising). Typhoon Tip got down to 870 mb and 215 mph sustained.

 

Did Tip really have those winds?  I thought Tip had 190 mph winds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Highest wind speed and lowest pressure for any storm in the NHC forecasting area, not in the world (which is what CNN's advertising). Typhoon Tip got down to 870 mb and 215 mph sustained.

 

Tip was a typhoon. They said hurricane. And I don't know the advisory intensities for Tip, but as far as I can see the highest 1m sustained winds for Tip were 165kts (190mph). It was a huge storm, so even though the pressure was lower, the gradient may not have been as strong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Highest wind speed and lowest pressure for any storm in the NHC forecasting area, not in the world (which is what CNN's advertising). Typhoon Tip got down to 870 mb and 215 mph sustained.

 

I've only seen Tip having 190mph one-min sustained.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know who this Josh is but I assume he knows his stuff regarding the tropics. With that said tho, I hope he gets out of the direct path and loses the tunnel vision ASAP. This isn't some Cat 1-2 storm...,this is the strongest hurricane ever recorded. Serious concerns for this persons well-being.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know who this Josh is but I assume he knows his stuff regarding the tropics. With that said tho, I hope he gets out of the direct path and loses the tunnel vision ASAP. This isn't some Cat 1-2 storm...,this is the strongest hurricane ever recorded. Serious concerns for this persons well-being.

 

HurricaneJosh dude.  He knows what he's doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i sure hope to see them turn back toward the center soon..running out of time before it reaches the coast. Makes me worried that they are flying northeast right now and not toward the center as of the last update.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know the sustained winds are 200 mph... But think about the gusts to 245 mph for a second. That's 100 mph stronger than 145 mph, which is firmly in the category 4 range. I can't even fathom seeing such gusts in a hurricane.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.