thewxmann

Meh, from the storm chasing perspective all I can hope for are a few good storms (especially since we're still in a background state that favors less western troughiness). With SWly flow atop a very moist warm sector in late May, we should get at least one or two quality storms. Outbreak not looking as likely, but at least we're not seeing a death ridge. The wrench in all this is we could have a few days ruined by crapvection -- the long SW fetch in the mid-upper levels would imply interaction with the southern stream and its associated, ill-timed disturbances. With such a moist and unstable warm sector, and lack of a hotter EML, any subtle southern stream disturbance could touch off a morning MCS. Too early to get into details about this, however.

Cap shouldn't be a big issue, we have a negatively tilted trough with main forcing for ascent arriving well-timed with peak heating. This is almost about as good as a model run gets for a Plains setup.

Take this with a grain of salt, but...

Hmm 1987 vs. 2007/1998. Lots of range there for the chase season.

It looks like the GFS has some disturbance in the STJ that limits moisture return. Either way it's very difficult to tell this far out. The ejecting trough has been looking impressive for a few runs now.

Forget about severe weather, TX and OK are going to be underwater by the end of next weekend. That's going to be the bigger news over the next week.

YES YES YES PLEASE YES.

Re: the whole issue with Galena. From what I've read, it takes a few minutes to generate a warning. The forecasters were probably still writing the warning when the 5:38 scan came out. Notice that there were only three minutes between the 2nd (5:39) and 3rd (5:42) SVS's. This may be due to the fact that the forecasters noticed that the couplet was closer to Joplin than it was to Galena. I think the important part is that the 5:39 SVS mentions the tornado is moving into Joplin. That should be enough to sound any on-air met's alarms. Furthermore, on-air mets should check the radars themselves and know what's going on. I haven't read the book, but again the title of it implies the warning system failed, which, IMO, it did not. There was not a single tornado emergency issued -- the SVS's I posted were all the ones associated with Tornado Warning #31. I think, in general, the timescales associated with this particular event (i.e. the time of evolution from doppler-warned to confirmed to particularly dangerous tornado) were much shorter than average, shorter than the radar period or warning-writing timescale.

I doubt that's it. It's hard to go against 200 kt couplet with debris ball. My thinking is the forecaster put the location as "Joplin" in AWIPS, which spat out an alternate location of "6 NE Galena". The Downtown Joplin *dot* is in fact north and east of the central Galena *dot*, and that's all that AWIPS has. In the whole confusion during that time, and dealing with multiple TORs in close proximity, the forecaster(s) may have not paid as much attention to that error, or they may have felt it would take to long to correct, given the urgency of the situation.

My take on this. 1) SW side of Joplin/Iron Gates had had minimum 15-20 min lead time, using the 5:38 PM radar image posted above and the fact the relevant TOR was issued at 5:17. 2) The first relevant TOR indicated that the storm was moving NE, which was ultimately incorrect, however while the storm was still in its fledgling stage this may have been a valid extrapolation of the motion. In their formation stages, supercells often move with the mean wind at a rapid clip, before sharply turning right and slowing down as the updraft matures (but not always!). So, until we are more sure with our science, and given the software that's in use, extrapolated motion's the best we got. Of course everything is clearer in hindsight. 3) The SVS's correct the initial TORs and give a correct heading -- except for the last one. 3) The cities impacted -- Iron Gates, Joplin, and Duquesne, are mentioned in every SVS as well as the initial relevant TOR -- except for the last one WRT Duquesne. 4) I agree that there is this (dare I say it?) --myth-- about the tornado forming right over town. There was a good chunk of time between spotter confirmation and tornado doing damage in Joplin. I think by the second SVS, a tornado emergency may have been justified, given the confirmation and the statement that the tornado was in fact moving straight into town. So the only thing I would have a beef with is SGF's 5:42 SVS, but by then the tornado was over the city and doing damage so it doesn't really matter as much. I also agree that the proximity of the two TORs may have confused media. Many things could've been done better, but the warning system hardly 'failed' Joplin.

Re: the tornado warnings on that day...Judge for yourself.... Tornado Warning #30 for western/nrn sides of Joplin: 509 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF CARL JUNCTION...OR 6 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...ASBURY...ATLAS... BROOKLYN HEIGHTS...CARL JUNCTION...CARTERVILLE...LAKESIDE...NECK CITY...NORTHEASTERN JOPLIN...OAKLAND PARK...ORONOGO...PURCELL... WACO AND WEBB CITY. #31, for srn sides of Joplin: 517 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO NEAR RIVERTON...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF BAXTER SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BAXTER SPRINGS...CLIFF VILLAGE...DENNIS ACRES...DIAMOND...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...FIDELITY...GALENA...IRON GATES...JOPLIN...LEAWOOD...LOWELL...REDINGS MILL...RIVERTON... SAGINAW...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...SHOAL CREEK ESTATE AND SILVER CREEK. 1st Follow-up SVS for the second TOR: 530 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...SOUTHWESTERN JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES... AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO NEAR RIVERTON...OR NEAR GALENA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM HAS AS HISTORY OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD IN RIVERTON KANSAS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CLIFF VILLAGE...DENNIS ACRES...DIAMOND... DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...FIDELITY...GALENA...IRON GATES...JOPLIN... LEAWOOD...LOWELL...REDINGS MILL...RIVERTON...SAGINAW...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...SHOAL CREEK ESTATE AND SILVER CREEK. 2nd SVS: 539 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...SOUTHWESTERN JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES... AT 534 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR GALENA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO THE CITY OF JOPLIN. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CLIFF VILLAGE...DENNIS ACRES...DIAMOND... DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...FIDELITY...GALENA...IRON GATES...JOPLIN... LEAWOOD...LOWELL...REDINGS MILL...RIVERTON...SAGINAW...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...SHOAL CREEK ESTATE AND SILVER CREEK. 3rd SVS, for both storms: 542 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY... ...A TORNADO WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FOR NORTHERN NEWTON...SOUTHEAST CHEROKEE COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES... AT 538 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR JOPLIN...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GALENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...ATLAS...BROOKLYN HEIGHTS...CARL JUNCTION...CARTERVILLE...LAKESIDE...NECK CITY... NORTHEASTERN JOPLIN...OAKLAND PARK...ORONOGO...PURCELL AND WEBB CITY.

Two from Rainsville (bringing total from that tornado to 25), one from near Higdon (bringing total from that tornado to 14).

FWIW, three additional fatalities were added on to the list a few days ago after some recounting in Dekalb County.

That was Rainsville. But yes, the EF5 damage from the 4/27 tornadoes was incredible. The Smithville, Hackleburg, and esp. Phil Campbell/Mt. Hope damage was probably some of the more violent (E)F5 damage I've seen. Underground shelters were left exposed. Only 18 homes in Smithville were completely destroyed, but in those there were 16 fatalities. I have heard similarly, that in some areas of Phil Campbell and Rainsville, being in the center of the tornado path without a safe room essentially meant you did not survive. The amount of small debris that was scattered for up to a mile (!) from the source in the Rainsville aerials is incredible.

Nope; in fact, at least one of the fatalities (Will Norton) was a recent HS graduate who was driving back from the graduation when the tornado hit.