thewxmann

The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile.

The models are taking it into consideration, and that's why they (almost) unanimously turn Irma northward near Florida.

Yeah they did this with Ike too, having it deepen by quite a bit over the Gulf despite its inner core getting shredded. The Keys and the west coast of FL are more surge prone than the east coast of FL however. So in that track, the surge could still create havoc. Pick your poison really.

925mb, 135kt LF: Key Largo, FL

West Coast is far more surge prone but less population till you get up to Naples/Ft. Meyers north to Cedar Key. Pick your poison.

Man reading some of these comments I'd think that Cat 5's happened all the time in the Atlantic. Never mind that we went 9 years without one before Matthew, much less one at 35N.

It's neither the worst case scenario nor is it just some "light rain" given the situation. Let's be realistic on both sides.

Actually the 0Z NAM last night was the first hint that something would go down today, and the 0Z 3-km NAM was downright impressive. Both models spun up a subtle low in S OK that backed the winds in E TX to southeasterly. Earlier runs, and the GFS, kept the sfc low buried in S TX/MX and so the sfc winds veered along the front. The kicker was the 3-km NAM veered the 500mb flow slightly more towards 0Z and this allowed more of the stronger bulk shear magnitudes to overspread the free warm sector, earlier. These subtle changes in trof geometry were not captured really well by any models until late-game, but made a huge difference in keeping storms supercellular just long enough. Finally, on the mesoscale level, the sfc obs indicated that there was not one main initiating boundary (the cold front out towards 35), but two... one ahead of the cold front, separating the backed windfield from more veered flow closer to the front. Many of the storms initiated on the latter boundary because convergence was stronger along it.

I have zero doubt that I cursed this setup by coming out to the Plains for this. As is starting to become tradition. Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

I'm not sure how this is relevant to anything. And yes I'm seriously thinking about it. So? P.S. why do you have to be such a prick?

Me and just about everybody else who understands meteorology. I'm sure you know them too, so I'll spare you from my negativity this time.

Yeah. Tonight's 0Z runs are the final nail in the coffin for tomorrow. Great setup wasted and we'll have to wait awhile for the next one...

The convection on Friday has never been the biggest issue for Saturday.

Not until after 0Z. That's the crux of the problem.

What are you talking about? They're all a hot mess. Just because I side with the NAM doesn't mean I haven't seen all the models.